Primeira LigaEstádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães23°2,3 mm12 km/h

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    Vitória de GuimarãesVitória de GuimarãesPossession control
    0–0
    Casa PiaCasa PiaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Vitória de Guimarães (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Casa Pia @ 6.93 (+22 %)

    Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia · Primeira Liga

    1 · Vitória de Guimarães 55%X 28%18% Casa Pia · 2

    Analysis: Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    With Vitória de Guimarães hosting Casa Pia, the stage appears set for a home-dominated affair. The numbers favor Guimarães, giving them a 55% chance of victory. Casa Pia's recent form paints a grim picture: four consecutive losses. Combine this with their meager expected goals per match of 0.48, and it's hard to see them mounting a serious challenge. The possession control style of both teams suggests a tactical battle in the midfield, but Guimarães, with an edge in expected goals and goals against, should control the game's rhythm.

    The model's most likely scorelines reflect a tight but home-favored outcome, with 1-0 and 1-1 both sitting at 12%. Guimarães, boasting an expected goals tally of 1.68, should find the net, while Casa Pia's 0.92 indicates they'll struggle to break down a solid home defense. The over/under 2.5 goals is nearly even at 48%, suggesting a low-scoring match, but the real question is whether Casa Pia can snap out of their slump.

    It's crucial not to overemphasize the head-to-head record here; only four meetings since 2023 don't provide a reliable pattern. However, the numbers are clear: Guimarães have a considerable edge in both points and expected metrics. Casa Pia's defensive frailties, with an xGA of 1.6 per match, could be their undoing against a side that knows how to control possession.

    Despite the lopsided analysis, there's a tantalizing betting angle. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer Casa Pia at odds of 6.3. The model sees an 18% chance for an upset, translating to an 11% edge. While Guimarães are deserved favorites, the betting value on Casa Pia provides a calculated shot for those inclined to back an unlikely turnaround.

    Vitória de GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #3xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Alioune NdoyeFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04
    • Gustavo SilvaRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.16
    • Oscar RivasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
    Casa PiaCasa Pia
    Form DLLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #4xP/match #18Points #18
    Key players
    • David SousaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
    • João Pedro Goulart SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Pedro Silva RosasLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.51
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Vitória de Guimarães 55% · Draw 28% · Casa Pia 18%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Casa PiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 31,65fair 24,91+27 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Vitória GuimarãesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,99fair 7,55-21 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia

    Predicted score matrix

    Casa Pia →
    Vitória de Guimarães →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.1%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.1%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.3%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.9%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,68–0,92
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.83
    Over 2,548%
    @2.05

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Vitória de Guimarães to win55%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.62

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Vitória de Guimarães to win55%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Fabio Blanco Gómez to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Fabio Blanco Gómez to score31%
    • David Sousa Albino to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Casa Pia18% probability@6.93PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
    • X · Draw28% probability@4.24PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Casa Pia18% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Vitória de GuimarãesX2 · Casa Pia
    Betsafe1.50
    EV+ 6%
    3.85
    EV+ 11%
    6.30
    Betsson1.50
    EV+ 6%
    3.85
    EV+ 11%
    6.30
    Nordicbet1.50
    EV+ 6%
    3.85
    EV+ 11%
    6.30
    Pinnacle1.51
    EV+ 17%
    4.24
    EV+ 22%
    6.93

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    65 %60 %

    1.53 → 1.51

    X+5 %
    26 %21 %

    4.05 → 4.24

    2+12 %
    17 %12 %

    6.17 → 6.93

    Over 2,5+3 %
    49 %44 %

    1.99 → 2.05

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Vitória de Guimarães 1Draw 2Casa Pia 1
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Primeira Liga data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Casa Pia have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vitória de Guimarães
    Casa Pia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vitória de Guimarães (3–5)
    Casa Pia (0–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vitória de Guimarães
    Oscar Rivas: 221 passningar, xT 0.39RivasThiago Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho: 217 passningar, xT 0.32CarvalhoJoao Mendes: 147 passningar, xT 0.29MendesTony Strata: 128 passningar, xT 0.96StrataBenedito Mambuene Mukendi: 96 passningar, xT 0.26MukendiGoncalo Nogueira: 95 passningar, xT -0.16NogueiraFábio Samuel Amorim da Silva: 95 passningar, xT 0.4SilvaOliwier Zych: 92 passningar, xT 0.16ZychLohann Doucet: 88 passningar, xT 0.05DoucetMiguel Ângelo Gomes Ferreira Magalhães: 52 passningar, xT 0.49MagalhãesGustavo Silva: 41 passningar, xT 0.55Silva
    Casa Pia
    David Sousa: 214 passningar, xT 0.24SousaJoão Pedro Goulart Silva: 206 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaAndre Geraldes: 156 passningar, xT 0.12GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 141 passningar, xT 0.34OforiAndre Gomes: 129 passningar, xT 0.11GomesAbdu Conte: 97 passningar, xT 0.24ConteSeba Perez: 89 passningar, xT 0.36PerezSilvi Clua Oya: 78 passningar, xT 0.19OyaPedro Silva Rosas: 60 passningar, xT 0.72RosasDiogo Filipe Costa Rocha: 50 passningar, xT 0.57RochaMárcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira: 43 passningar, xT 0.01Pereira
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vitória de Guimarães
    Oscar Rivas: 221 passningar, xT 0.39RivasThiago Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho: 217 passningar, xT 0.32CarvalhoJoao Mendes: 147 passningar, xT 0.29MendesTony Strata: 128 passningar, xT 0.96StrataBenedito Mambuene Mukendi: 96 passningar, xT 0.26MukendiGoncalo Nogueira: 95 passningar, xT -0.16NogueiraFábio Samuel Amorim da Silva: 95 passningar, xT 0.4SilvaOliwier Zych: 92 passningar, xT 0.16ZychLohann Doucet: 88 passningar, xT 0.05DoucetMiguel Ângelo Gomes Ferreira Magalhães: 52 passningar, xT 0.49MagalhãesGustavo Silva: 41 passningar, xT 0.55Silva
    Casa Pia
    David Sousa: 214 passningar, xT 0.24SousaJoão Pedro Goulart Silva: 206 passningar, xT 0.24SilvaAndre Geraldes: 156 passningar, xT 0.12GeraldesLawrence Ofori: 141 passningar, xT 0.34OforiAndre Gomes: 129 passningar, xT 0.11GomesAbdu Conte: 97 passningar, xT 0.24ConteSeba Perez: 89 passningar, xT 0.36PerezSilvi Clua Oya: 78 passningar, xT 0.19OyaPedro Silva Rosas: 60 passningar, xT 0.72RosasDiogo Filipe Costa Rocha: 50 passningar, xT 0.57RochaMárcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira: 43 passningar, xT 0.01Pereira

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVitória de GuimarãesCasa Pia
    Points30
    xPoints7.32.2
    xG per match1.70.48
    xGA per match0.581.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.5
    Playing styleVitória de GuimarãesCasa Pia
    Build-up efficiency0.310.28
    Field tilt0.590.39
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match0.490.92
    Won balls, offensive half3625
    Pressing intensity0.210.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.2
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against714
    Pass completion %0.750.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.7
    Passes per match350353
    Passes against per match373360
    Switches of play per match37.835.6
    Long balls per match4233
    Set piecesVitória de GuimarãesCasa Pia
    xG from free kicks0.040.04
    Corners per match34
    Corners against per match32.3
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against00.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.67
    OtherVitória de GuimarãesCasa Pia
    Throw-in control0.820.75
    The goalkeepersOliwier Zych (Vitória de Guimarães)Andre Gomes (Casa Pia)
    Saves411
    Save %44%52%
    xG prevented33%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vitória de Guimarães
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Casa Pia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vitória de Guimarães vs Casa Pia according to our model?

    The model gives Vitória de Guimarães a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitória de Guimarães 55%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.