Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership5 September 2026 16:00 CESTPittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen15°21 km/h

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AberdeenCounter-attacks & crosses

0–0

KilmarnockBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Aberdeen (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kilmarnock @ 4.78 (+41 %)

1 · Aberdeen 39%X 32%29% Kilmarnock · 2

39%

32%

29%

Analysis: Aberdeen – Kilmarnock

Anna Karlsson · 4 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Aberdeen have historically had the upper hand in their clashes with Kilmarnock, winning five of their last seven meetings since 2023. This head-to-head record, while significant, holds less weight compared to the current state of both teams. The hosts are on a troubling trajectory, having lost their last three games. Yet Kilmarnock’s form is even worse, with four consecutive losses. This matchup is less about historical dominance and more about which team can halt their losing streak.

Aberdeen's style of play, relying on counter-attacks and crosses, contrasts with Kilmarnock's more balanced and physical approach. Despite the Dons' struggles, their model probabilities give them a 39% chance to win, compared to Kilmarnock’s 29%. The expected goals underline this edge: 1.34 for the home side against 1.11 for the visitors. Aberdeen also outshine Kilmarnock in xPoints and both offensive and defensive metrics, suggesting a slight advantage.

The model indicates that a 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 13%, with a 1-0 win for Aberdeen following closely at 11%. A low scoring game seems probable, with just a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals. The odds of both teams scoring are finely balanced at 50%. These numbers suggest a cautious approach from both sides, potentially leading to a tight contest.

For those hunting value, there's a notable betting angle. The odds of the match ending goalless are set at 15.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presenting a 35% edge according to the model. While a 0-0 draw is not the most probable scenario, the potential payoff highlights a significant opportunity for those willing to take a calculated risk.

Aberdeen

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 0.47 · xT -0.04
Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Daniel Keith HappeCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.07

Kilmarnock

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.28 · xT -0.02
Tom LoweryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.18

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Aberdeen 39% · Draw 32% · Kilmarnock 29%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KilmarnockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,33fair 16,03-17 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AberdeenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,93fair 11,05-55 %

Miss

Match prediction: Aberdeen – Kilmarnock

Predicted score matrix

Kilmarnock →

Aberdeen →

0–09.0%

0–19.2%

0–25.3%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.2%

1–27.1%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.8%

2–18.6%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.5%

3–13.9%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,11

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@2.27EV+22%

Over 2,544%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Stuart Armstrong to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Brad Joseph Lyons to score21%
Jack Thomson to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kilmarnock29% probability@4.78PinnacleEV+41%reference odds
2 · Kilmarnock29% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
2 · Kilmarnock29% probability@4.65BetssonEV+37%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Aberdeen	X	2 · Kilmarnock
Bet365	1.70	EV+ 21% 3.80	EV+ 28% 4.33
Betfair Exchange	1.47	EV+ 16% 3.65	2.88
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 14% 3.60	EV+ 37% 4.65
Betsson	1.70	EV+ 14% 3.60	EV+ 37% 4.65
Nordicbet	1.70	EV+ 14% 3.60	EV+ 37% 4.65
Pinnacle	1.72	EV+ 27% 4.01	EV+ 41% 4.78

Odds updated 5 Sept, 05:15

Odds movement

10 %

58 %53 %

1.71 → 1.72

X+3 %

27 %22 %

3.88 → 4.01

2+4 %

23 %18 %

4.61 → 4.78

Over 2,5+1 %

60 %55 %

1.67 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Aberdeen 5Draw 0Kilmarnock 2

Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 2,1)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Aberdeen FC dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
Aberdeen FC have lost 3 in a row.
Kilmarnock have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Aberdeen (2–7)

Kilmarnock (4–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

The teams in numbers

Performance	Aberdeen	Kilmarnock
Points	3	0
xPoints	3.3	2.6
xG per match	1.1	0.92
xGA per match	2	3.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.58

Playing style	Aberdeen	Kilmarnock
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.36	0.39
xT per match	0.76	0.91
xTA per match	0.92	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	12	17
Pass completion %	0.71	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.68
Passes per match	283	342
Passes against per match	382	475
Switches of play per match	23.9	30
Long balls per match	30	35

Set pieces	Aberdeen	Kilmarnock
xG from free kicks	0.3	0
Corners per match	4.7	4.5
Corners against per match	7.9	5.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.52

Other	Aberdeen	Kilmarnock
Throw-in control	0.74	0.76

The goalkeepers	Marius Müller (Aberdeen)	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)
Saves	20	17
Save %	74%	57%
xG prevented	51%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Aberdeen

Fixtures, form & tips

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock according to our model?

The model gives Aberdeen a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aberdeen 39%, draw 32%, Kilmarnock 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.