Celtic vs Aberdeen: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership2 September 2026 20:45 CESTCeltic Park, Glasgow14°4,1 mm16 km/h

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CelticPossession & high press

3–0

AberdeenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Celtic (79%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.00 (+12 %)

1 · Celtic 79%X 13%8% Aberdeen · 2

79%

13%

Analysis: Celtic – Aberdeen

Marcus Johansson · 31 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

In the last 10 encounters since 2023, Celtic have been dominant against Aberdeen, with an undefeated streak of eight wins and two draws. This historical supremacy creates a foundation for what Celtic will likely bring to the table once more. The hosts are riding a wave of momentum, having secured 10 consecutive victories, a testament to their tactical prowess and execution. Despite Aberdeen's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, Celtic's possession-based high press is expected to suffocate these attempts and dictate the rhythm of the match.

Celtic's current form is bolstered by a remarkable scoring streak, having netted in every one of their last 10 league games. Their attacking machine is supported by an xG of 3.7 per match, dwarfing Aberdeen's 1.2. Defensively, Celtic have also been solid, conceding just 0.67 xGA per match compared to Aberdeen's 1.9. With an expected goals tally of 2.57 for the hosts versus 0.67 for the visitors, the numbers lean heavily towards a comfortable home victory.

The model suggests that the most probable outcomes are 2-0, 3-0, and 1-0 in favor of Celtic. This aligns with their style of dictating play and controlling the tempo, likely limiting Aberdeen's offensive opportunities. The over 2.5 goals market is pegged at 63%, reflecting the potential for Celtic to score multiple times while being defensively astute.

However, there's a notable value angle for those seeking a less conventional bet. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.05 for under 2.5 goals, which represents a 14% edge based on the model's 37% probability. While this seems counterintuitive given the high-scoring history between these teams, the conditions—with the expected rain possibly hampering fluid play—could tip the scales in favor of a tighter contest.

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.50 · xT 0.51
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.72 · xT 0.01
Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.01

Aberdeen

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #8xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 0.53 · xT 0.01
Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Daniel Keith HappeCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.07

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Celtic 79% · Draw 13% · Aberdeen 8%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,28fair 4,50-27 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AberdeenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 33,20fair 68,26-51 %

Miss

Match prediction: Celtic – Aberdeen

Predicted score matrix

Aberdeen →

Celtic →

0–04.1%

0–12.4%

0–20.9%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.9%

1–16.9%

1–22.2%

1–30.5%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.0%

2–18.7%

2–22.9%

2–30.6%

2–4+0.1%

3–011.1%

3–17.4%

3–22.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.2%

4+–18.8%

4+–22.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.3-011%
3.1-010%
4.2-19%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,57–0,67

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@3.00EV+12%

Over 2,563%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win79%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win79%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Daizen Maeda to score45%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Daizen Maeda to score45%
Mats Knoester to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.537% probability@3.00Bet365EV+12%reference odds
Both teams to score: No55% probability@2.00Bet365EV+10%reference odds
Under 3.560% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celtic	X	2 · Aberdeen
Bet365	1.25	6.00	9.00
Betsafe	1.23	5.25	EV+ 1% 12.50
Betsson	1.23	5.25	EV+ 1% 12.50
Nordicbet	1.23	5.25	EV+ 1% 12.50
Pinnacle	1.25	6.20	12.14

Odds updated 2 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

78 %73 %

1.27 → 1.25

X+11 %

18 %13 %

5.57 → 6.20

2+20 %

11 %6 %

10.11 → 12.14

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

10 matches

Celtic 8Draw 2Aberdeen 0

Goals: 30–8 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 8 wins to 0 in 10 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
Celtic FC come into this round on 10 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Celtic FC win 81% of their home matches all-time (59 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celtic

Aberdeen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celtic (8–2)

Aberdeen (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celtic

Aberdeen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celtic

Aberdeen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celtic	Aberdeen
Points	9	3
xPoints	7.5	2.6
xG per match	3.7	1.2
xGA per match	0.67	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	1	0.01
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.38

Playing style	Celtic	Aberdeen
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.31
Field tilt	0.7	0.46
xT per match	2.1	0.95
xTA per match	0.53	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	29	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.41
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.4
Entries into the box per match	20	12
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.84	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.82	0.6
Passes per match	583	272
Passes against per match	326	279
Switches of play per match	33.2	22.9
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Celtic	Aberdeen
xG from free kicks	0	0.4
Corners per match	7.5	4.6
Corners against per match	4.1	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.71

Other	Celtic	Aberdeen
Throw-in control	0.81	0.76

The goalkeepers	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)	Marius Müller (Aberdeen)
Saves	8	11
Save %	89%	73%
xG prevented	85%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Aberdeen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celtic vs Aberdeen according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 79%, draw 13%, Aberdeen 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.