Celtic vs Falkirk: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership29 August 2026 16:00 CESTCeltic Park, Glasgow17°14 km/h

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CelticPossession & high press

2–1

FalkirkBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Celtic (79%)Best value by the model: 2 · Falkirk @ 14.50 (+20 %)

1 · Celtic 79%X 13%8% Falkirk · 2

79%

13%

Analysis: Celtic – Falkirk

Marcus Johansson · 27 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Celtic's relentless high press and possession game have propelled them to nine straight wins, a streak they aim to extend against Falkirk. This pattern is underpinned by their consistent scoring record, having found the net in their last nine league outings. The hosts boast a formidable 81% win rate at home over 58 games all-time, which further cements their dominance in this matchup. Notably, Celtic have outperformed Falkirk in all four head-to-head encounters since 2023, though the small sample size means this record is less predictive than their current form.

Falkirk, on the other hand, bring a balanced yet physical approach, but their solitary point and meager 0.67 expected goals per match pale in comparison to Celtic's imposing 4.5 xG per game. Their defensive frailties are highlighted by an xGA of 1.4, suggesting they will struggle to contain Celtic's attacking onslaught. Despite their physicality, matching Celtic's intensity and skill will be a daunting task.

With expected goals of 2.60 for the hosts and just 0.68 for the visitors, the most probable outcomes are 2-0, 3-0, and 1-0 scorelines. The model's 64% lean towards over 2.5 goals suggests Celtic's firepower could overwhelm Falkirk's defenses. However, the under 2.5 goals bet presents value at odds of 3.05 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This option is rated at 36% by the model, offering an 11% edge against the market.

In conclusion, Celtic's superior form and style point to a dominant victory, likely around a 2-0 scoreline. Yet, given the value on offer, those inclined to bet might consider the under 2.5 goals, despite the apparent mismatch between the teams.

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.71 · xT 0.61
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.72 · xT 0.01

Falkirk

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #12xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Liam HendersonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Celtic 79% · Draw 13% · Falkirk 8%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,15fair 4,35-28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FalkirkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 36,01fair 64,89-45 %

Miss

Match prediction: Celtic – Falkirk

Predicted score matrix

Falkirk →

Celtic →

0–04.0%

0–12.4%

0–20.9%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.6%

1–16.9%

1–22.3%

1–30.5%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.7%

2–18.7%

2–23.0%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–011.0%

3–17.5%

3–22.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.3%

4+–19.1%

4+–23.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.3-011%
3.1-010%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,60–0,68

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@3.05EV+11%

Over 2,564%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win79%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win79%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Daizen Maeda to score46%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Daizen Maeda to score46%
Henry Cartwright to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Falkirk8% probability@14.50BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
2 · Falkirk8% probability@14.50BetssonEV+20%reference odds
2 · Falkirk8% probability@14.50NordicbetEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celtic	X	2 · Falkirk
Betsafe	1.23	5.70	EV+ 20% 14.50
Betsson	1.23	5.70	EV+ 20% 14.50
Nordicbet	1.23	5.70	EV+ 20% 14.50
Pinnacle	1.22	7.13	11.95

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

10 %

81 %76 %

1.21 → 1.22

X+7 %

16 %11 %

6.65 → 7.13

2+8 %

11 %6 %

11.04 → 11.95

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Celtic 4Draw 0Falkirk 0

Goals: 10–1 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC come into this round on 9 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Celtic FC win 81% of their home matches all-time (58 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celtic

Falkirk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celtic (6–1)

Falkirk (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celtic

Falkirk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celtic

Falkirk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celtic	Falkirk
Points	6	1
xPoints	5	2
xG per match	4.5	0.67
xGA per match	0.81	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	1.1	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.04	0.29

Playing style	Celtic	Falkirk
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.32
Field tilt	0.69	0.49
xT per match	2.5	0.48
xTA per match	0.52	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	25	36
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.28
Entries into the box per match	22	8
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.84	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.81	0.68
Passes per match	605	334
Passes against per match	283	369
Switches of play per match	31.3	36.2
Long balls per match	30	46

Set pieces	Celtic	Falkirk
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	8.2	4.5
Corners against per match	4.6	4.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.05	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.67

Other	Celtic	Falkirk
Throw-in control	0.82	0.77

The goalkeepers	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)	Scott Bain (Falkirk)
Saves	7	5
Save %	88%	71%
xG prevented	82%	74%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Falkirk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celtic vs Falkirk according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 79%, draw 13%, Falkirk 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.