01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Scottish PremiershipDens Park, Dundee14°4,2 mm18 km/h
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Dundee FCLow block & direct1–2
HibernianPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hibernian (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.01 (+9 %)
Dundee FC – Hibernian · Scottish Premiership
1 · Dundee FC 31%X 27%43% Hibernian · 2
31%
27%
43%
Analysis: Dundee FC – Hibernian
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A high-scoring history doesn't always predict the future, especially when the numbers whisper otherwise. Dundee FC and Hibernian face off with the underlying data pointing to a more reserved affair than past encounters might suggest. With Dundee's direct approach clashing against Hibernian's possession-heavy style, the match dynamics hinge on whether Hibs can break down Dundee's low block, which remains to be seen given the teams' expected goals: Dundee 1.17 and Hibernian 1.34.
The model favors Hibernian with a 43% win probability, but Dundee's home form paints a more complex picture. Despite Hibernian's historical dominance of this fixture, Dundee's recent league form offers an edge, having accrued more points and slightly outperforming Hibs in expected points as well. Yet, the visitors hold an edge in expected goals per match, suggesting they might create more dangerous chances.
Both teams' scoring profiles and the model’s probabilities suggest a close contest. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw (13%), hinting at a tight game. The over 2.5 goals probability is set at 46%, indicating that a high-scoring game, which has historically characterized this fixture, might not be on the cards this time. Given Dundee’s defensive setup and Hibs’ pressing game, the chances of a low-scoring encounter seem plausible.
Therefore, betting markets appear to have overlooked the subtle shift in expected dynamics compared to historical data. The under 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet is where the sharp edge lies. The model rates this outcome at 54%, delivering a 6% value edge — a significant opportunity for discerning bettors.
Dundee FCForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #11xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Simon MurrayLWxG 0.17 · xT -0.06
- Joseph BevanRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.16
- Charlie ReillyLWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.05
HibernianForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #8xP/match #4Points #7
Key players
- Owen EldingFxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
- Felix PasslackRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Adam MayorLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Final score
1 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dundee FC 31% · Draw 27% · Hibernian 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DundeeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,90fair 14,17-30 %
MissMatchresultat - HibernianBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,05fair 10,98-36 %
MissMatch prediction: Dundee FC – Hibernian
Predicted score matrix
Hibernian →
Dundee FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–110.5%
0–27.3%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–09.2%
1–113.1%
1–28.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.5%
2–25.0%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.2%
3–12.9%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,17–1,34
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.01EV+6%
Over 2,546%
@1.86
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Martin Callie Boyle to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Martin Callie Boyle to score25%
- Daniel Tan Barlaser to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.554% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.95BetssonEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dundee FC | X | 2 · Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Nordicbet | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.11 | 3.52 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1-5 %
33 %28 %
3.26 → 3.11
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.54 → 3.52
2+8 %
45 %40 %
2.15 → 2.32
Over 2,5+1 %
55 %50 %
1.84 → 1.86
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesDundee FC 1Draw 2Hibernian 3
Goals: 10–14 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Hibernian dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dundee FC
Hibernian
Dundee FC (4–1)
Hibernian (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Hibernian
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Hibernian
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dundee FC | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 3 |
| xPoints | 5.6 | 3.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.84 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Dundee FC | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 23 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 223 | 268 |
| Passes against per match | 436 | 520 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.4 | 24.5 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Dundee FC | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| Other | Dundee FC | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.9 |
| The goalkeepers | Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC) | Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 11 |
| Save % | 91% | 85% |
| xG prevented | 73% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dundee FC vs Hibernian according to our model?
The model gives Hibernian a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee FC 31%, draw 27%, Hibernian 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.