Scottish PremiershipDens Park, Dundee13°1,5 mm15 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Dundee FCDundee FCLow block & direct
    1–1
    St. JohnstoneSt. JohnstonePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Dundee FC (40%)

    Dundee FC – St. Johnstone · Scottish Premiership

    1 · Dundee FC 40%X 28%32% St. Johnstone · 2

    Analysis: Dundee FC – St. Johnstone

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Dundee FC's direct, low-defense approach will clash with the possession-heavy, high-pressing style of St. Johnstone, creating a fascinating tactical battle. The model gives Dundee a 40% chance of victory, pointing slightly towards the hosts in this tight Scottish Premiership matchup. Dundee's attacking capabilities, shown by an expected goals tally of 1.37, might just edge the contest.

    The head-to-head since 2023, though a small sample of four matches, suggests a slight advantage for Dundee, with two wins, a draw, and a loss. While this history can't be overly relied upon, it does provide a backdrop of confidence for the home side. Moreover, Dundee's expected points stand at 6.5 compared to St. Johnstone's 3.3, further solidifying their edge.

    Expected goals per match, Dundee at 1.5 versus St. Johnstone's 1.3, underscore the hosts' attacking edge. However, there's tension as Dundee's expected goals against (xGA) is higher than St. Johnstone's, pointing to potential vulnerabilities at the back. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw (13%) looms, given both sides have shown the ability to score but also to concede.

    Despite the narrow margins, Dundee has a betting value angle. Offered at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the home win presents a 7% edge over the estimated probability. It’s a subtle but significant opportunity for those seeking value.

    Given the expected rain, which dampens goal-scoring prospects, the lean is towards a low-scoring game. The 48% over 2.5 goals probability suggests caution against expecting a high tally. A 1-0 win for Dundee seems plausible, aligning with the home value bet, where a calculated risk might just pay off.

    Dundee FCDundee FC
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #5Points #4
    Key players
    • Simon MurrayLWxG 0.17 · xT -0.06
    • Joseph BevanRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
    • Joe WestleyFxG 0.53 · xT 0.00
    St. JohnstoneSt. Johnstone
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #7xP/match #9Points #9
    Key players
    • Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
    • Josh FowlerFxG 0.12 · xT 0.05
    • Ruari PatonLWxG 0.19 · xT -0.01
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Dundee FC 40% · Draw 28% · St. Johnstone 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - DundeeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,67fair 10,29-16 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - St JohnstoneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,90fair 12,56-37 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Dundee FC – St. Johnstone

    Predicted score matrix

    St. Johnstone →
    Dundee FC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–18.8%
    0–25.6%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.7%
    1–112.9%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–18.6%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,24
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.03EV+5%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.91

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Dundee FC or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Dundee FC or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Finlay Robertson to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Finlay Robertson to score26%
    • Víctor Alfredo Griffith Mullins to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Dundee FC40% probability@2.77PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Dundee FC40% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Dundee FC40% probability@2.65BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Dundee FCX2 · St. Johnstone
    Bet3652.353.502.63
    Betsafe
    EV+ 7%
    2.65    		3.402.45
    Betsson
    EV+ 7%
    2.65    		3.402.45
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    2.65    		3.402.45
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 12%
    2.77    		3.582.52

    Odds updated 2 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+10 %
    40 %30 %

    2.51 → 2.77

    X+1 %
    32 %22 %

    3.53 → 3.58

    2-6 %
    43 %33 %

    2.69 → 2.52

    Over 2,50 %
    57 %47 %

    1.84 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Dundee FC 2Draw 1St. Johnstone 1
    Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dundee FC
    St. Johnstone
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Dundee FC (5–3)
    St. Johnstone (5–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dundee FC
    Owen Lucas Bevan: 143 passningar, xT 0.15BevanIdris Adewale Olarewaju Odutayo: 113 passningar, xT 0.15OdutayoRyan Astley: 111 passningar, xT 0.11AstleyEthan Billy Hamilton: 111 passningar, xT -0.08HamiltonDrey Wright: 88 passningar, xT 0.33WrightOwen Olamidayo Goodman: 83 passningar, xT 0.12GoodmanRyan James Finnigan: 83 passningar, xT 0.1FinniganFinlay Robertson: 40 passningar, xT 0.13RobertsonJoseph Bevan: 39 passningar, xT 0.41BevanJoe Westley: 32 passningar, xT -0.02WestleyCharlie Reilly: 31 passningar, xT 0.08Reilly
    St. Johnstone
    Cheick Tiemoko Diabate: 199 passningar, xT 0.41DiabateReece McAlear: 144 passningar, xT 0.11McAlearJason Holt: 141 passningar, xT 0.21HoltZach Mitchell: 135 passningar, xT 0.38MitchellMatthew Colin Foulds: 109 passningar, xT 0.39FouldsToby Peter Gary Steward: 101 passningar, xT 0.11StewardLiam Smith: 96 passningar, xT 0.25SmithJames Gullan: 71 passningar, xT 0.18GullanSamuel Stanton: 64 passningar, xT 0.08StantonRuari Paton: 46 passningar, xT -0.02PatonEnes Alić: 38 passningar, xT 0.1Alić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dundee FC
    Owen Lucas Bevan: 143 passningar, xT 0.15BevanIdris Adewale Olarewaju Odutayo: 113 passningar, xT 0.15OdutayoRyan Astley: 111 passningar, xT 0.11AstleyEthan Billy Hamilton: 111 passningar, xT -0.08HamiltonDrey Wright: 88 passningar, xT 0.33WrightOwen Olamidayo Goodman: 83 passningar, xT 0.12GoodmanRyan James Finnigan: 83 passningar, xT 0.1FinniganFinlay Robertson: 40 passningar, xT 0.13RobertsonJoseph Bevan: 39 passningar, xT 0.41BevanJoe Westley: 32 passningar, xT -0.02WestleyCharlie Reilly: 31 passningar, xT 0.08Reilly
    St. Johnstone
    Cheick Tiemoko Diabate: 199 passningar, xT 0.41DiabateReece McAlear: 144 passningar, xT 0.11McAlearJason Holt: 141 passningar, xT 0.21HoltZach Mitchell: 135 passningar, xT 0.38MitchellMatthew Colin Foulds: 109 passningar, xT 0.39FouldsToby Peter Gary Steward: 101 passningar, xT 0.11StewardLiam Smith: 96 passningar, xT 0.25SmithJames Gullan: 71 passningar, xT 0.18GullanSamuel Stanton: 64 passningar, xT 0.08StantonRuari Paton: 46 passningar, xT -0.02PatonEnes Alić: 38 passningar, xT 0.1Alić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDundee FCSt. Johnstone
    Points63
    xPoints6.53.3
    xG per match1.51.3
    xGA per match1.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.17
    Playing styleDundee FCSt. Johnstone
    Build-up efficiency0.340.3
    Field tilt0.280.59
    xT per match0.540.95
    xTA per match1.60.89
    Won balls, offensive half2323
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.26
    Entries into the box per match912
    Entries into the box against2210
    Pass completion %0.660.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.72
    Passes per match246410
    Passes against per match463357
    Switches of play per match20.728.7
    Long balls per match2537
    Set piecesDundee FCSt. Johnstone
    xG from free kicks0.070
    Corners per match4.54
    Corners against per match65.3
    xG per corner0.030.06
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.67
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.62
    OtherDundee FCSt. Johnstone
    Throw-in control0.780.78
    The goalkeepersOwen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC)Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)
    Saves1513
    Save %83%77%
    xG prevented65%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Dundee FC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    St. Johnstone
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dundee FC vs St. Johnstone according to our model?

    The model gives Dundee FC a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee FC 40%, draw 28%, St. Johnstone 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Dundee UnitedDundee United
    1–1
    RangersRangers
    1 17%X 22%2 60%
    The model missed the outcome
    AberdeenAberdeen
    2–1
    HeartsHearts
    1 24%X 25%2 51%
    The model missed the outcome
    FalkirkFalkirk
    0–2
    St. MirrenSt. Mirren
    1 34%X 30%2 36%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.