Falkirk vs Hearts: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership22 August 2026 16:00 CESTFalkirk Stadium, Falkirk14°13 km/h

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FalkirkBalanced & physical

HeartsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Hearts (50%)

1 · Falkirk 24%X 26%50% Hearts · 2

24%

26%

50%

Analysis: Falkirk – Hearts

Anna Karlsson · 17 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Falkirk face a daunting task, having lost all four encounters against Hearts since 2023. The small head-to-head sample leans heavily in Hearts' favour, yet it's the current form and expected goals that paint a compelling picture. Falkirk's xG of 0.71 per match starkly contrasts with Hearts' robust 1.6 xG, suggesting a significant attacking advantage for the visitors. Such numbers are hard to argue against, especially when Hearts have managed to find the net in their last 10 league outings.

Hearts boast a 50% chance of victory according to the model, with the most probable scorelines being 1-1 and 0-1. Falkirk, despite profiling as a physical and balanced side, are likely to struggle against a similarly styled Hearts team that outmatches them in almost every metric. Falkirk's xGA of 1.5 per match is somewhat better than Hearts' 2.6, but the expected goals balance still leans towards Hearts.

The weather's not a factor this time, which means the numbers stand on their own merit. With a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring, the odds favour a relatively open game. Yet, Falkirk's limited offensive firepower makes it unlikely they'll breach Hearts' defenses more than once, if at all.

Back Hearts to edge this with a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline, keeping an eye on the value betting market. With Bet365 offering odds of 2.3, there's a juicy 15% edge over the model's 50% probability, making it an enticing prospect for punters. For those less daring, Betsafe and Betsson both offer a 4% edge at 2.08, but it's the Bet365 odds that truly pique interest.

Falkirk

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #8xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Liam HendersonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Hearts

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #11xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Amadou Ba-SyFxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Calvin MillerLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
Blair Thomas SpittalCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Falkirk – Hearts

Predicted score matrix

Hearts →

Falkirk →

0–06.8%

0–110.8%

0–29.6%

0–35.5%

0–4+3.5%

1–06.2%

1–111.6%

1–29.8%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.6%

2–03.3%

2–15.7%

2–25.0%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.1%

3–11.9%

3–21.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-210%
4.0-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,02–1,73

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@1.98

Over 2,552%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hearts to win50%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hearts to win50%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Calvin Miller to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Ben Parkinson to score19%
Stuart John Findlay to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hearts50% probability@2.30Bet365EV+15%reference odds
2 · Hearts50% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Hearts50% probability@2.08BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Falkirk	X	2 · Hearts
Bet365	2.88	3.40	EV+ 15% 2.30
Betsafe	3.55	3.40	EV+ 4% 2.08
Betsson	3.55	3.40	EV+ 4% 2.08
Nordicbet	3.55	3.40	EV+ 4% 2.08
Pinnacle	3.53	3.46	EV+ 4% 2.07

Odds updated 15 Aug, 16:04

Odds movement

1-1 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.53

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.47 → 3.46

20 %

48 %43 %

2.06 → 2.07

Over 2,50 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Falkirk 0Draw 0Hearts 4

Goals: 0–9 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Hearts have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkirk

Hearts

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Falkirk (0–2)

Hearts (5–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkirk

Hearts

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkirk

Hearts

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkirk	Hearts
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.7	1
xG per match	0.71	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	2.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.57	0.01

Playing style	Falkirk	Hearts
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.55	0.64
xT per match	0.68	0.43
xTA per match	1.3	0.64
Won balls, offensive half	31	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.43
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.48	0.42
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.71	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.53
Passes per match	345	271
Passes against per match	246	282
Switches of play per match	33.9	16.3
Long balls per match	53	23

Set pieces	Falkirk	Hearts
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	7	5.7
Corners against per match	7	3.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.1
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.5

Other	Falkirk	Hearts
Throw-in control	0.77	0.79

The goalkeepers	Scott Bain (Falkirk)	Jamie Mccart (Hearts)
Saves	5	4
Save %	71%	100%
xG prevented	74%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Falkirk vs Hearts according to our model?

The model gives Hearts a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkirk 24%, draw 26%, Hearts 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.