Falkirk vs St. Mirren: Prediction & Odds (1 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership1 August 2026Falkirk Stadium, Falkirk15°22 km/hUpdated 28/07/2026

Läs på svenska

FalkirkPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · St. Mirren (36%)

St. MirrenLow block & direct

1 · Falkirk 34%X 30%St. Mirren · 2 36%

34%

30%

36%

Falkirk

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #8xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Barney StewartFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
Brad SpencerCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Calvin MillerLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.16

St. Mirren

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #6xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Jonah AyungaFxG 0.35 · xT -0.03
Scott TanserLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
Roland IdowuFxG 0.1 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Falkirk – St. Mirren

Predicted score matrix

St. Mirren →

Falkirk →

0–08.4%

0–19.9%

0–26.6%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.6%

1–113.1%

1–28.2%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.2%

2–17.9%

2–25.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.5%

3–13.3%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-08%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,24–1,28

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.04EV+10%

Over 2,546%

@1.80

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · St. Mirren36% probability@3.69PinnacleEV+34%
Under 2.554% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+10%
X · Draw30% probability@3.58PinnacleEV+7%

Bookmaker	1 · Falkirk	X	2 · St. Mirren
Pinnacle	2.00	EV+ 7% 3.58	EV+ 34% 3.69

Odds updated 27 Jul, 15:52

Analysis: Falkirk – St. Mirren

Erik Lindberg · 28 July 2026 · How the predictions work

Three matches played, two victories for St. Mirren. Falkirk have found themselves routinely on the back foot against their upcoming opponents since 2023, and recent form isn't doing them any favours. With three consecutive losses, the tension in their camp is palpable. St. Mirren, though edging the model's probabilities at 36% for a win, are not exactly running away with the plaudits themselves. The expectation of a tight game is carved into the numbers.

Falkirk's possession control style will face a stern test against a St. Mirren side comfortable sitting back and hitting on the break. Falkirk boast a slightly higher expected goals per match at 1.5 compared to St. Mirren's 1.3, yet it is St. Mirren's defensive steel — conceding fewer expected goals against per match — that could tilt the scales. St. Mirren's knack for navigating such matchups has now been proven, not just in their head-to-head superiority, but also in their resolute approach.

The model's most likely scoreline predictions of 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (10%) hint at a low-scoring affair, aligning with the under 2.5 goals probability sitting at 46%. With Falkirk's recent troubles, the lure of backing St. Mirren away at 3.69 with Pinnacle is substantial, given the model accords them a 36% chance — a 34% edge in value terms.

Falkirk have the edge in the points tally (49 vs. 34), but when it comes to expected metrics, St. Mirren's 54.2 xPoints slightly trumps Falkirk's 53.7, indicating that the latter's results may be flattering to deceive. This notion of a closely fought match is further endorsed by the 30% chance of a draw, which Pinnacle is offering at 3.58 and presents a value bet too.

So, where does the sharpest angle lie? With both teams likely to cancel each other out and the odds for a draw reflecting a decent value, pinning hopes on a 1-1 stalemate seems prudent. Yet, the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.04 with a 10% edge is the most compelling play — a bet that screams of value amidst the controlled chaos often witnessed in these Scottish battles.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Falkirk 1Draw 0St. Mirren 2

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Falkirk have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkirk

St. Mirren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Falkirk (50–62)

St. Mirren (30–55)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkirk

St. Mirren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkirk

St. Mirren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkirk	St. Mirren
Points	49	34
xPoints	53.7	54.2
xG per match	1.5	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.14

Playing style	Falkirk	St. Mirren
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.37
Field tilt	0.48	0.46
xT per match	0.92	0.98
xTA per match	1	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.31
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.73	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.68
Passes per match	329	299
Passes against per match	321	376
Switches of play per match	28.8	24.4
Long balls per match	36	37

Set pieces	Falkirk	St. Mirren
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.1
Corners per match	4.8	5.5
Corners against per match	4.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.59