01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance St. Mirren or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Scottish PremiershipFalkirk Stadium, Falkirk14°0,1 mm21 km/h
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FalkirkBalanced & physical0–2
St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · St. Mirren (36%)
Falkirk – St. Mirren · Scottish Premiership
1 · Falkirk 34%X 30%36% St. Mirren · 2
34%
30%
36%
Analysis: Falkirk – St. Mirren
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Falkirk have stumbled into this fixture on the back of three straight losses, an ominous pattern as they prepare to host St. Mirren. Despite their superior points tally of 49 compared to St. Mirren's 34, it's the underlying stats that tell a more nuanced story. Falkirk's xPoints sit slightly behind St. Mirren's at 53.7 to 54.2, hinting that the Bairns might be overperforming relative to their actual play. The models favor St. Mirren, albeit slightly, with a 36% chance of victory versus Falkirk's 34%. This slim margin is telling in a matchup that promises to be a tightly contested affair.
St. Mirren's recent head-to-head edge since 2023 bolsters their quiet confidence. Winning two out of the last three encounters, the Saints have demonstrated an ability to exploit Falkirk's vulnerabilities. A consistent low-defence and direct approach could counteract Falkirk's possession-heavy style, especially given the Bairns' recent struggles. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with a 13% probability, underscores the expected parity, but a narrow 0-1 win for St. Mirren at 10% isn't far behind.
Falkirk's xG of 1.5 per match suggests they can create chances, but with an equal xGA of 1.5, they also concede too readily. St. Mirren, on the other hand, have a more balanced profile, scoring 1.3 xG while conceding the same amount. This balance could be crucial in a match where both teams have a slim margin for error. The likelihood of both teams scoring is pegged at 52%, further supporting the case for a close encounter.
The odds tell their own story. Pinnacle lists St. Mirren as a value bet at 3.62, with the model suggesting a 36% chance of their win (31% edge). Similarly, the draw at 3.56 offers a 7% edge, reflecting the tight nature of this clash. However, the keenest punters might look towards the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, offering a 9% edge. Given the statistical leanings and recent form, St. Mirren seem just about poised to edge this one, potentially snatching a 0-1 victory amidst a backdrop of underwhelming goal-scoring prospects.
FalkirkForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #8xP/match #11Points #11
Key players
- Liam HendersonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
- Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
St. MirrenForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Eseosa SuleFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
- Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
- Paul NsioCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Falkirk 34% · Draw 30% · St. Mirren 36%
Match prediction: Falkirk – St. Mirren
Predicted score matrix
St. Mirren →
Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–19.9%
0–26.6%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.6%
1–113.1%
1–28.2%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.2%
2–17.9%
2–25.1%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.3%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-08%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,24–1,28
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.03EV+9%
Over 2,546%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance St. Mirren or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Roland Idowu to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Ben Parkinson to score26%
- Miguel Freckleton to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · St. Mirren36% probability@3.71PinnacleEV+34%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Falkirk | X | 2 · St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | EV+ 7% 3.59 | EV+ 34% 3.71 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:09
Odds movement
1+2 %
50 %45 %
2.00 → 2.03
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.58 → 3.59
2+1 %
29 %24 %
3.69 → 3.71
Over 2,5+3 %
55 %50 %
1.80 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFalkirk 1Draw 0St. Mirren 3
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Falkirk
St. Mirren
Falkirk (0–2)
St. Mirren (3–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Falkirk
St. Mirren
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Falkirk
St. Mirren
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Falkirk | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 6 |
| xPoints | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| xG per match | 0.71 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.98 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.57 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Falkirk | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.48 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 345 | 315 |
| Passes against per match | 246 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.9 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 53 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Falkirk | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| Other | Falkirk | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Scott Bain (Falkirk) | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 3 |
| Save % | 71% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 74% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Falkirk vs St. Mirren according to our model?
The model gives St. Mirren a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkirk 34%, draw 30%, St. Mirren 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.