01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hearts to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Scottish PremiershipTynecastle Park, Edinburgh17°0,1 mm27 km/h
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HeartsPossession control2–1
Dundee FCLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hearts (51%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.88 (+38 %)
Hearts – Dundee FC · Scottish Premiership
1 · Hearts 51%X 28%20% Dundee FC · 2
51%
28%
20%
Analysis: Hearts – Dundee FC
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
As Hearts prepare to host Dundee FC, the numbers point to a game defined by possession and defensive strategies. The hosts boast a 51% chance of taking the victory, with the model favoring them for good reason. Hearts have been on an impressive run, scoring in 12 consecutive league matches and winning their last three straight. Their capacity to control the ball suggests a disciplined approach that Dundee's low defense might struggle to break down.
Dundee, on the other hand, brings a more direct style that hasn’t fared well historically against Hearts. In the seven matches since 2023, Dundee has managed just two wins against five losses in this fixture. Despite their current standing just two points behind Hearts, the expected points edge actually falls to Dundee, indicating they have perhaps been unlucky or underperformed slightly. However, with Hearts winning 65% of their home matches, history and home advantage tilt the scales firmly in the hosts' favor.
In terms of goals, the expected tally leans towards Hearts outscoring Dundee, with expected goals sitting at 1.91 to 0.96. The most likely scorelines reflect this, with 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0 all hovering around 10% likelihood. While the over 2.5 goals market sits at 55%, suggesting a slight lean towards a more open game than one might expect given the styles, the model still sees a controlled victory for Hearts as the likelier outcome.
For those seeking a sharp angle, the value lies in backing Dundee at odds of 5.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. Although the model rates this outcome at just 20%, translating to a 20% edge, it's a calculated risk within an otherwise solid prediction for Hearts to edge this encounter, likely 1-0 or 2-0.
HeartsForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #5xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Joshua McPakeLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.24
- Amadou Ba-SyFxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
- Calvin MillerLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09
Dundee FCForm LWWLD
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #11xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Simon MurrayLWxG 0.16 · xT -0.06
- Joseph BevanRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
- Joe WestleyLWxG 0.57 · xT 0.00
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hearts 51% · Draw 28% · Dundee FC 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DundeeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,44fair 22,96-20 %
MissMatchresultat - HeartsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,88fair 5,88-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Hearts – Dundee FC
Predicted score matrix
Dundee FC →
Hearts →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–15.1%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.5%
1–110.7%
1–25.0%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.6%
3–16.3%
3–23.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–14.7%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,91–0,96
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.38EV+4%
Over 2,555%
@1.61
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hearts to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Lawrence Shankland to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Lawrence Shankland to score34%
- Ryan James Finnigan to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@4.88PinnacleEV+38%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee FC20% probability@6.69PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee FC20% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hearts | X | 2 · Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.48 | EV+ 13% 4.00 | EV+ 27% 6.25 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.54 | EV+ 24% 4.40 | EV+ 16% 5.70 |
| Betsafe | 1.45 | EV+ 21% 4.30 | EV+ 28% 6.30 |
| Betsson | 1.45 | EV+ 21% 4.30 | EV+ 28% 6.30 |
| Nordicbet | 1.45 | EV+ 21% 4.30 | EV+ 28% 6.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | EV+ 38% 4.88 | EV+ 36% 6.69 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
67 %62 %
1.49 → 1.46
X+9 %
23 %18 %
4.49 → 4.88
2+11 %
17 %12 %
6.05 → 6.69
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesHearts 5Draw 0Dundee FC 2
Goals: 15–4 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Hearts dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
- Hearts come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Hearts have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
- Hearts win 65% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hearts
Dundee FC
Hearts (10–4)
Dundee FC (6–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hearts
Dundee FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hearts
Dundee FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hearts | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 7 |
| xPoints | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Hearts | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 0.64 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 302 | 258 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 469 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.4 | 21.1 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Hearts | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 7.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| Other | Hearts | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Beau Reus (Hearts) | Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 19 |
| Save % | 64% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 21% | 67% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hearts vs Dundee FC according to our model?
The model gives Hearts a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hearts 51%, draw 28%, Dundee FC 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.