Scottish PremiershipTynecastle Park, Edinburgh17°12 km/h

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    HeartsHeartsBalanced & physical
    2–1
    St. JohnstoneSt. JohnstonePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Hearts (65%)

    Hearts – St. Johnstone · Scottish Premiership

    1 · Hearts 65%X 22%13% St. Johnstone · 2

    Analysis: Hearts – St. Johnstone

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Hearts have been a formidable force against St. Johnstone in recent meetings, winning all four encounters since 2023. While this head-to-head record is based on a small sample size, it does align with the overall strengths both teams bring into this matchup at Tynecastle. The hosts tend to dominate at home, winning 64% of their matches historically, a figure that bolsters their 65% win probability as projected by the model.

    The numbers suggest a game leaning towards Hearts, with expected goals of 2.03 to the visitor's 0.81. While St. Johnstone uses a high-pressing style, Hearts' balanced and physical approach seems better suited to this encounter. The model's most likely outcomes are a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for Hearts, further highlighting the home side's edge. However, with an over 2.5 goals probability of 54%, don't rule out multiple goals despite St. Johnstone's slightly better defensive xGA at 1.3 compared to Hearts' 1.7.

    A potential quirk lies in St. Johnstone's knack for creating xG within eight seconds of winning the ball, an area where they outperform Hearts (0.26 vs. 0.13). This indicates that while Hearts should dominate, St. Johnstone may find joy in quick transitions, a factor not entirely captured by the expected goals.

    From a betting perspective, the real value lies in backing Hearts at odds of 1.75, offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model sees a 14% edge here, considering Hearts' strong home form and recent supremacy in this fixture. While the over 2.5 goals sits just above a coin flip, the smarter play remains on the home win, capturing both form and momentum in one stroke.

    HeartsHearts
    Form DWLLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #5xP/match #5Points #5
    Key players
    • Amadou Ba-SyFxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
    • Calvin MillerLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
    • Blair Thomas SpittalCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.29
    St. JohnstoneSt. Johnstone
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #7xP/match #7Points #6
    Key players
    • Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
    • Josh FowlerFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
    • Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hearts 65% · Draw 22% · St. Johnstone 13%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - HeartsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,31fair 5,77-8 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - St JohnstoneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,69fair 35,49-59 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Hearts – St. Johnstone

    Predicted score matrix

    St. Johnstone →
    Hearts →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–14.5%
    0–21.9%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–011.6%
    1–19.9%
    1–23.9%
    1–31.1%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–012.0%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.1%
    3–16.6%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–06.6%
    4+–15.3%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,03–0,81
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.13
    Over 2,554%
    @1.74

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hearts to win65%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hearts to win65%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Lawrence Shankland to score43%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Lawrence Shankland to score43%
    • Víctor Alfredo Griffith Mullins to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hearts65% probability@1.74PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Hearts65% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Hearts65% probability@1.72BetssonEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · HeartsX2 · St. Johnstone
    Betsafe
    EV+ 12%
    1.72    		3.854.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 12%
    1.72    		3.854.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 12%
    1.72    		3.854.65
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 13%
    1.74    		4.084.57

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.75 → 1.74

    X+6 %
    26 %21 %

    3.86 → 4.08

    2+4 %
    24 %19 %

    4.41 → 4.57

    Over 2,5-5 %
    56 %51 %

    1.83 → 1.74

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Hearts 4Draw 0St. Johnstone 0
    Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Hearts have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    • Hearts win 64% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hearts
    St. Johnstone
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hearts (5–2)
    St. Johnstone (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hearts
    Blair Thomas Spittal: 69 passningar, xT 0.54SpittalOisin Mcentee: 68 passningar, xT 0.05McenteeJordi Altena: 59 passningar, xT 0.04AltenaBeau Reus: 57 passningar, xT 0.02ReusCalvin Miller: 54 passningar, xT 0.03MillerHarry Milne: 41 passningar, xT 0.15MilneClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 40 passningar, xT -0.02BragaSabah Kerjota: 38 passningar, xT 0.09KerjotaJamie Mccart: 27 passningar, xT 0.03MccartLaurent Mendy: 20 passningar, xT -0.01MendyTom Renaud: 17 passningar, xT 0.1Renaud
    St. Johnstone
    Cheick Tiemoko Diabate: 127 passningar, xT 0.27DiabateMatthew Colin Foulds: 109 passningar, xT 0.39FouldsReece McAlear: 99 passningar, xT 0.12McAlearZach Mitchell: 92 passningar, xT 0.19MitchellJason Holt: 73 passningar, xT 0.15HoltLiam Smith: 66 passningar, xT 0.11SmithToby Peter Gary Steward: 54 passningar, xT 0.03StewardJames Gullan: 53 passningar, xT 0.17GullanSamuel Stanton: 46 passningar, xT -0.06StantonRuari Paton: 31 passningar, xT 0PatonJosh Fowler: 22 passningar, xT 0.06Fowler
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hearts
    Blair Thomas Spittal: 69 passningar, xT 0.54SpittalOisin Mcentee: 68 passningar, xT 0.05McenteeJordi Altena: 59 passningar, xT 0.04AltenaBeau Reus: 57 passningar, xT 0.02ReusCalvin Miller: 54 passningar, xT 0.03MillerHarry Milne: 41 passningar, xT 0.15MilneClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 40 passningar, xT -0.02BragaSabah Kerjota: 38 passningar, xT 0.09KerjotaJamie Mccart: 27 passningar, xT 0.03MccartLaurent Mendy: 20 passningar, xT -0.01MendyTom Renaud: 17 passningar, xT 0.1Renaud
    St. Johnstone
    Cheick Tiemoko Diabate: 127 passningar, xT 0.27DiabateMatthew Colin Foulds: 109 passningar, xT 0.39FouldsReece McAlear: 99 passningar, xT 0.12McAlearZach Mitchell: 92 passningar, xT 0.19MitchellJason Holt: 73 passningar, xT 0.15HoltLiam Smith: 66 passningar, xT 0.11SmithToby Peter Gary Steward: 54 passningar, xT 0.03StewardJames Gullan: 53 passningar, xT 0.17GullanSamuel Stanton: 46 passningar, xT -0.06StantonRuari Paton: 31 passningar, xT 0PatonJosh Fowler: 22 passningar, xT 0.06Fowler

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHeartsSt. Johnstone
    Points33
    xPoints3.32.7
    xG per match1.91.6
    xGA per match1.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.1
    Playing styleHeartsSt. Johnstone
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.60.58
    xT per match10.93
    xTA per match0.740.81
    Won balls, offensive half2028
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.330.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.25
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against109
    Pass completion %0.70.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.72
    Passes per match280402
    Passes against per match345355
    Switches of play per match2430.7
    Long balls per match2937
    Set piecesHeartsSt. Johnstone
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match6.44
    Corners against per match2.94
    xG per corner0.010.1
    xGA per corner against0.060.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.62
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.62
    OtherHeartsSt. Johnstone
    Throw-in control0.730.76
    The goalkeepersJamie Mccart (Hearts)Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)
    Saves46
    Save %100%67%
    xG prevented100%29%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hearts
    Fixtures, form & tips
    St. Johnstone
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hearts vs St. Johnstone according to our model?

    The model gives Hearts a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hearts 65%, draw 22%, St. Johnstone 13%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.