Hibernian vs Aberdeen: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership19 September 2026 16:00 CESTEaster Road, Edinburgh12°1,6 mm28 km/h

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HibernianPossession & high press

AberdeenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Hibernian (58%)

1 · Hibernian 58%X 25%18% Aberdeen · 2

58%

25%

18%

Analysis: Hibernian – Aberdeen

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Hibernian's 58% model probability highlights their edge over Aberdeen in this clash, with the hosts demonstrating stronger form both in actual and expected metrics. This advantage is underscored by their xG superiority of 1.9 to the visitors' 1.0, suggesting that the hosts are more likely to find the back of the net. The historical head-to-head record is modest, with Hibernian leading 4-2 in 7 matches, offering some confidence but shouldn't be overemphasized given its limited sample size.

Aberdeen's counter-attacking style may struggle against Hibernian's possession and high press, particularly given Aberdeen's lower xPoints (4.7) compared to the hosts' (7.9). The visitors will aim to exploit opportunities via crosses, but their xGA of 1.8 per match points to vulnerabilities in defense that Hibernian could exploit. Both teams have a slim chance of a 1-1, 2-0, or 2-1 scoreline, yet Hibernian's superior 2.00 expected goals hint at them edging a potential 2-0 victory.

The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 57%, supported by Hibs' attacking prowess. Expect Hibernian to control the game given their statistical edge.

Hibernian

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #8xP/match #4Points #8

Key players

Jamie Terence McGrathLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Adam MayorLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
Martin Callie BoyleRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.02

Aberdeen

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #10xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 0.42 · xT -0.03
Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Daniel Keith HappeCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Hibernian – Aberdeen

Predicted score matrix

Aberdeen →

Hibernian →

0–05.4%

0–14.7%

0–22.4%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.8%

1–110.2%

1–24.9%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–110.0%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.8%

3–16.6%

3–23.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.4%

4+–15.3%

4+–22.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-010%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,00–0,98

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.10

Over 2,557%

@1.75EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hibernian to win58%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hibernian to win58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Nathan Alexander Lowe to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Nathan Alexander Lowe to score31%
Brad Joseph Lyons to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Hibernian58% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
1 · Hibernian58% probability@1.80BetssonEV+4%reference odds
1 · Hibernian58% probability@1.80NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hibernian	X	2 · Aberdeen
Bet365	EV+ 1% 1.75	3.75	4.20
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 1.80	3.60	4.40
Betsson	EV+ 4% 1.80	3.60	4.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 1.80	3.60	4.40

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:12

Odds movement

10 %

56 %51 %

1.75 → 1.75

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.75 → 3.75

20 %

25 %20 %

4.20 → 4.20

Bet365 · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Hibernian 4Draw 1Aberdeen 2

Goals: 12–8 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Hibernian dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hibernian

Aberdeen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hibernian (7–9)

Aberdeen (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Aberdeen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Aberdeen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hibernian	Aberdeen
Points	6	4
xPoints	7.9	4.7
xG per match	1.9	1
xGA per match	1.6	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.5	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.36

Playing style	Hibernian	Aberdeen
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.38
xT per match	0.86	0.79
xTA per match	0.89	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.67
Passes per match	365	310
Passes against per match	405	371
Switches of play per match	31	24.2
Long balls per match	39	29

Set pieces	Hibernian	Aberdeen
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.26
Corners per match	6.2	5
Corners against per match	4.4	7.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.45

Other	Hibernian	Aberdeen
Throw-in control	0.77	0.74

The goalkeepers	Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian)	Marius Müller (Aberdeen)
Saves	17	24
Save %	68%	77%
xG prevented	30%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hibernian

Fixtures, form & tips

Aberdeen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hibernian vs Aberdeen according to our model?

The model gives Hibernian a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hibernian 58%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.