Hibernian vs Hearts: Prediction & Odds (3 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership3 September 2026 20:45 CESTEaster Road, Edinburgh17°8,3 mm28 km/h

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HibernianPossession & high press

HeartsBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Hearts (40%)

1 · Hibernian 31%X 30%40% Hearts · 2

31%

30%

40%

Analysis: Hibernian – Hearts

Erik Lindberg · 31 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A 40% win probability for Hearts suggests they hold a slight edge over Hibernian, especially noticeable when you consider the robust streak of scoring in 11 consecutive league matches. The model's lean toward the visitors is clear, supported by a series of metrics that paint a compelling picture for a narrow away victory.

Despite the hosts' appealing xG metrics—Hibernian's 2.2 xG per match compared to Hearts' 1.7—their defensive frailties are apparent. The hosts concede more frequently, with an xGA of 1.5 against Hearts' 1.4. This defensive vulnerability could be pivotal, especially given the visitors' scoring consistency.

Moreover, both sides exhibit contrasting playing styles; Hibernian's possession and high press encounter Hearts' balanced and physical approach. This tactical clash could lead to a tight battle. With combined expected goals of 2.64, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, the match doesn't clearly point to a low-scoring affair despite the modest rainfall forecast of 2.2 mm.

The head-to-head record since 2023 suggests parity, with each team winning three matches out of seven. Yet, the sample is small and less significant compared to current form and expected goals. The most likely scorelines hint at a close encounter: 1-1 at 12% or a 0-1 victory for Hearts at 10%.

For bettors seeking value, the odds for an away win at 2.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a promising edge of 9% based on the model's assessment. This makes backing Hearts a strategic play, one that's underpinned by both form and probability.

Hibernian

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #9xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Jamie Terence McGrathLWxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
Callum WrightLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.06
Martin Callie BoyleRWxG 0.92 · xT 0.06

Hearts

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #5xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Amadou Ba-SyFxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Calvin MillerLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.02
Joshua McPakeLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Hibernian – Hearts

Predicted score matrix

Hearts →

Hibernian →

0–07.4%

0–110.5%

0–28.2%

0–34.2%

0–4+2.2%

1–07.6%

1–112.5%

1–29.2%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.5%

2–04.5%

2–16.8%

2–25.2%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.4%

3–01.7%

3–12.5%

3–21.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,12–1,52

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.00EV+1%

Over 2,549%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hearts or draw (X2)72%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hearts or draw (X2)72%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Lawrence Shankland to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Lawrence Shankland to score20%
Stuart John Findlay to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hearts40% probability@2.73PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
2 · Hearts40% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Hearts40% probability@2.72BetssonEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hibernian	X	2 · Hearts
Bet365	2.50	EV+ 4% 3.50	EV+ 3% 2.60
Betsafe	2.45	3.30	EV+ 8% 2.72
Betsson	2.45	3.30	EV+ 8% 2.72
Nordicbet	2.45	3.30	EV+ 8% 2.72
Pinnacle	2.56	EV+ 1% 3.39	EV+ 8% 2.73

Odds updated 1 Sept, 06:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

40 %35 %

2.51 → 2.56

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.38 → 3.39

2-2 %

37 %32 %

2.78 → 2.73

Over 2,50 %

54 %49 %

1.86 → 1.86

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Hibernian 3Draw 1Hearts 3

Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Hearts have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hibernian

Hearts

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hibernian (5–4)

Hearts (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Hearts

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hibernian

Hearts

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hibernian	Hearts
Points	6	6
xPoints	5.5	5.4
xG per match	2.2	1.7
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.62	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.12

Playing style	Hibernian	Hearts
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.53
xT per match	0.88	1
xTA per match	0.96	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.77	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.63
Passes per match	359	307
Passes against per match	452	372
Switches of play per match	31.1	33.1
Long balls per match	39	37

Set pieces	Hibernian	Hearts
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	5.7	6.9
Corners against per match	4	3.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.5

Other	Hibernian	Hearts
Throw-in control	0.83	0.78

The goalkeepers	Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian)	Beau Reus (Hearts)
Saves	13	4
Save %	81%	57%
xG prevented	45%	13%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hibernian vs Hearts according to our model?

The model gives Hearts a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hibernian 31%, draw 30%, Hearts 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.