Scottish PremiershipRugby Park, Kilmarnock17°12 km/h

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    KilmarnockKilmarnockBalanced & physical
    0–4
    Dundee UnitedDundee UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Kilmarnock (44%)

    Kilmarnock – Dundee United · Scottish Premiership

    1 · Kilmarnock 44%X 29%27% Dundee United · 2

    Analysis: Kilmarnock – Dundee United

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Kilmarnock have historically had the upper hand in this matchup, remaining undefeated in their last seven encounters against Dundee United. However, the visitors enter this game with a slight edge in recent metrics. Despite only managing a single point compared to Kilmarnock's zero this season, Dundee United's stronger xPoints (2.4) and xG per match (1.2) suggest a more potent offense.

    Yet, it's the hosts who are favored by the model, with a 44% chance of victory. This is further reflected in the most likely scorelines, with a 1-1 draw leading at 12%, followed closely by Kilmarnock wins at 9% for both 1-0 and 2-1 outcomes. The expected goals also tip in Kilmarnock's favor, at 1.56 against Dundee United's 1.20, despite the latter's superior xGA. The forecasted rain might suppress scoring, but this is already factored into the model's numbers.

    For those seeking value, Kilmarnock's home win stands out at odds of 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—all yielding a 6% edge over the model's 44% probability. While the matchup tilts toward the underdog in recent form, the hosts' historical dominance and model preference make them an appealing bet.

    KilmarnockKilmarnock
    Form WWWLL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #12
    Key players
    • Greg KiltieFxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
    • Tom LoweryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
    • Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01
    Dundee UnitedDundee United
    Form DDDLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #6xP/match #11Points #11
    Key players
    • Jesse Carmichael RandallLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
    • Vicko SeveljCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
    • Dylan TaitCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    0 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Kilmarnock 44% · Draw 29% · Dundee United 27%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - KilmarnockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,65fair 7,93-16 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Dundee UnitedBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,14fair 13,28-46 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Kilmarnock – Dundee United

    Predicted score matrix

    Dundee United →
    Kilmarnock →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–17.2%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–09.5%
    1–112.2%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.7%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,56–1,20
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.24EV+4%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Kilmarnock or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Kilmarnock or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Brad Joseph Lyons to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Amar Abdirahman Ahmed Fatah to score25%
    • Vicko Ševelj to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Kilmarnock44% probability@2.54PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Kilmarnock44% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KilmarnockX2 · Dundee United
    Betsafe
    EV+ 7%
    2.45
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.72
    Betsson
    EV+ 7%
    2.45
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.72
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    2.45
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.72
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    2.54
    EV+ 8%
    3.68    		2.72

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.79 to 1.70 (−5%).

    1-1 %
    41 %36 %

    2.57 → 2.54

    X+4 %
    29 %24 %

    3.53 → 3.68

    2+3 %
    37 %32 %

    2.63 → 2.72

    Over 2,5-5 %
    57 %52 %

    1.79 → 1.70

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Kilmarnock 3Draw 4Dundee United 0
    Goals: 12–6 (⌀ 2,6)

    Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kilmarnock dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kilmarnock
    Dundee United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kilmarnock (4–9)
    Dundee United (1–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kilmarnock
    Tom Lowery: 87 passningar, xT 0.27LoweryAaron Tshibola: 72 passningar, xT 0.25TshibolaMichael Schjønning-Larsen: 67 passningar, xT 0.08Schjønning-LarsenGeorge Stanger: 66 passningar, xT 0.09StangerMaksymilian Stryjek: 61 passningar, xT 0.06StryjekGreg Kiltie: 50 passningar, xT 0.16KiltieJamie Brandon: 49 passningar, xT 0.23BrandonEthan Lake Schilte-Brown: 42 passningar, xT 0.04Schilte-BrownJohnly Levi Yfeko: 32 passningar, xT 0.06YfekoErik Karl Hugo Ring: 31 passningar, xT 0.18RingTyreece Romayo John-Jules: 19 passningar, xT 0.06John-Jules
    Dundee United
    Michael Forbes: 155 passningar, xT 0.02ForbesDylan Tait: 150 passningar, xT 0.18TaitBert Esselink: 143 passningar, xT 0.31EsselinkVicko Sevelj: 108 passningar, xT 0.47SeveljWill Ferry: 94 passningar, xT 0.44FerryPanutche Camara: 74 passningar, xT 0.07CamaraJack Walton: 51 passningar, xT 0.06WaltonJoshua James Rawlins: 49 passningar, xT 0.02RawlinsMehdi Merghem: 39 passningar, xT 0.24MerghemDaniel Ian Bennie: 29 passningar, xT 0.36BennieJesse Carmichael Randall: 28 passningar, xT 0.35Randall
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kilmarnock
    Tom Lowery: 87 passningar, xT 0.27LoweryAaron Tshibola: 72 passningar, xT 0.25TshibolaMichael Schjønning-Larsen: 67 passningar, xT 0.08Schjønning-LarsenGeorge Stanger: 66 passningar, xT 0.09StangerMaksymilian Stryjek: 61 passningar, xT 0.06StryjekGreg Kiltie: 50 passningar, xT 0.16KiltieJamie Brandon: 49 passningar, xT 0.23BrandonEthan Lake Schilte-Brown: 42 passningar, xT 0.04Schilte-BrownJohnly Levi Yfeko: 32 passningar, xT 0.06YfekoErik Karl Hugo Ring: 31 passningar, xT 0.18RingTyreece Romayo John-Jules: 19 passningar, xT 0.06John-Jules
    Dundee United
    Michael Forbes: 155 passningar, xT 0.02ForbesDylan Tait: 150 passningar, xT 0.18TaitBert Esselink: 143 passningar, xT 0.31EsselinkVicko Sevelj: 108 passningar, xT 0.47SeveljWill Ferry: 94 passningar, xT 0.44FerryPanutche Camara: 74 passningar, xT 0.07CamaraJack Walton: 51 passningar, xT 0.06WaltonJoshua James Rawlins: 49 passningar, xT 0.02RawlinsMehdi Merghem: 39 passningar, xT 0.24MerghemDaniel Ian Bennie: 29 passningar, xT 0.36BennieJesse Carmichael Randall: 28 passningar, xT 0.35Randall

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKilmarnockDundee United
    Points01
    xPoints12.4
    xG per match0.911.2
    xGA per match42.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.010.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.830.12
    Playing styleKilmarnockDundee United
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.380.46
    xT per match0.791
    xTA per match1.91.2
    Won balls, offensive half1733
    Pressing intensity0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency0.220.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.35
    Entries into the box per match915
    Entries into the box against1615
    Pass completion %0.730.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.7
    Passes per match315349
    Passes against per match532241
    Switches of play per match21.332.4
    Long balls per match2935
    Set piecesKilmarnockDundee United
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match44.3
    Corners against per match6.47.7
    xG per corner0.060.03
    xGA per corner against0.10.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.59
    OtherKilmarnockDundee United
    Throw-in control0.750.76
    The goalkeepersMaksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)Jack Walton (Dundee United)
    Saves1311
    Save %62%61%
    xG prevented44%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kilmarnock
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dundee United
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kilmarnock vs Dundee United according to our model?

    The model gives Kilmarnock a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kilmarnock 44%, draw 29%, Dundee United 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.