Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren: Prediction & Odds (2 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership2 September 2026 20:45 CESTRugby Park, Kilmarnock15°0,3 mm12 km/h

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KilmarnockBalanced & physical

St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · St. Mirren (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+3 %)

1 · Kilmarnock 34%X 30%36% St. Mirren · 2

34%

30%

36%

Analysis: Kilmarnock – St. Mirren

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model gives St. Mirren a slight edge with a probability of 36% for victory, just ahead of Kilmarnock's 34%. This tight contest leans towards a 1-1 draw being the most likely outcome, making the draw a valuable option with a 2% edge at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Player form trends favor St. Mirren, who remain unbeaten in their last five league games, overshadowing Kilmarnock's recent struggles with three consecutive losses.

Kilmarnock's historical dominance in this fixture, with four wins in the last seven meetings, contrasts sharply with their current form. This sample is small and less impactful than the broader metrics. Expected goals tell a clear story: St. Mirren has an edge with 1.43 to Kilmarnock's 1.30. The visitors’ play on the counter combined with crosses could exploit Kilmarnock's current vulnerabilities, especially given the hosts’ defensive xGA of 3.9 per match.

The anticipated rain might dampen the game's scoring potential, yet the historical average of 3.4 goals per match suggests otherwise. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 51%, aligning with a high-scoring tendency. For those eyeing value, the draw stands out, priced attractively at 3.4, reflecting a promising angle.

Kilmarnock

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #6xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieFxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.32 · xT -0.02
Tom LoweryCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.25

St. Mirren

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Eseosa SuleFxG 0.29 · xT 0.15
Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
Paul NsioCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Kilmarnock – St. Mirren

Predicted score matrix

St. Mirren →

Kilmarnock →

0–06.9%

0–19.0%

0–26.6%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.2%

1–112.5%

1–28.6%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.5%

2–17.9%

2–25.6%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.4%

3–13.4%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,43

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.02

Over 2,551%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance St. Mirren or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance St. Mirren or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Dan Nlundulu Konda to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Brad Joseph Lyons to score25%
Jack Thomson to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.40Bet365EV+3%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.39PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kilmarnock	X	2 · St. Mirren
Bet365	2.40	EV+ 3% 3.40	2.70
Betsafe	2.80	3.20	2.42
Betsson	2.80	3.20	2.42
Nordicbet	2.80	3.20	2.42
Pinnacle	2.90	EV+ 2% 3.39	2.41

Odds updated 1 Sept, 14:31

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an St. Mirren win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.77 to 2.41 (−13%).

1+16 %

40 %30 %

2.49 → 2.90

X+2 %

33 %23 %

3.31 → 3.39

2-13 %

42 %32 %

2.77 → 2.41

Over 2,50 %

58 %48 %

1.81 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Kilmarnock 4Draw 2St. Mirren 1

Goals: 14–10 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Kilmarnock dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
Kilmarnock have lost 3 in a row.
St. Mirren are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kilmarnock (4–13)

St. Mirren (6–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

St. Mirren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kilmarnock	St. Mirren
Points	0	7
xPoints	1.5	5.4
xG per match	1	1.8
xGA per match	3.9	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.5
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.76	0.26

Playing style	Kilmarnock	St. Mirren
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.4	0.48
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	2.2	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	20	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.17
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	18	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.68
Passes per match	330	323
Passes against per match	478	384
Switches of play per match	28.6	21.5
Long balls per match	37	28

Set pieces	Kilmarnock	St. Mirren
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3.7	6.3
Corners against per match	6	5.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.5

Other	Kilmarnock	St. Mirren
Throw-in control	0.74	0.61

The goalkeepers	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)	Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren)
Saves	17	7
Save %	59%	70%
xG prevented	42%	96%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren according to our model?

The model gives St. Mirren a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kilmarnock 34%, draw 30%, St. Mirren 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.