Rangers vs Motherwell: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership5 September 2026 16:00 CESTIbrox Stadium, Glasgow14°0,4 mm25 km/h

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RangersCounter-attacks & crosses

MotherwellPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rangers (60%)Best value by the model: 2 · Motherwell @ 6.35 (+7 %)

1 · Rangers 60%X 23%17% Motherwell · 2

60%

23%

17%

Analysis: Rangers – Motherwell

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Rangers have scored in 17 consecutive league matches, a staggering run that underlines their attacking prowess. The numbers suggest a tight contest, with Rangers given a 60% chance to win. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw stands at 11%, slightly higher than a narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts at 10%. Their expected goals edge, 1.93 to Motherwell's 1.08, also points to an advantage.

Form tells its own story: Rangers have gathered 4 points compared to the visitors' 5, yet the underlying xPoints give the nod to the home side. Rangers' 2.0 xG per match outshines Motherwell’s 1.6, echoed by their slight defensive superiority. Despite this, recent head-to-head meetings since 2023 offer no clear upper hand, with each side securing two wins in seven encounters. The small sample size warns against over-reliance on these results.

The total goals market leans towards the over 2.5 line at 58%, with both teams likely to score at 57%. For those seeking value, the away win at odds of 6.3 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet suggests a 6% edge. While not a certainty, it’s a tempting prospect in a match where Motherwell's possession play might just unsettle the hosts.

Rangers

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #3xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Lawrence ShanklandFxG 0.57 · xT 0.08
Findlay CurtisFxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
Thelo AasgaardLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.05

Motherwell

Form LWWDD

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #10xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Tawanda MaswanhiseFxG 0.88 · xT 0.06
Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.12 · xT 0.06
Lukas FadingerCAMxG 0.32 · xT -0.03

Match prediction: Rangers – Motherwell

Predicted score matrix

Motherwell →

Rangers →

0–05.2%

0–15.0%

0–22.9%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.2%

1–110.6%

1–25.6%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.9%

2–25.4%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.9%

3–16.4%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.4%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.6%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,93–1,08

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.36

Over 2,558%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rangers to win60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rangers to win60%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Djeidi Gassama to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Djeidi Gassama to score24%
Elliot William Watt to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Motherwell17% probability@6.35PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
X · Draw23% probability@4.64PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
2 · Motherwell17% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rangers	X	2 · Motherwell
Bet365	1.53	4.00	5.75
Betfair Exchange	1.39	4.20	5.60
Betsafe	1.45	4.15	EV+ 6% 6.30
Betsson	1.45	4.15	EV+ 6% 6.30
Nordicbet	1.45	4.15	EV+ 6% 6.30
Pinnacle	1.46	EV+ 7% 4.64	EV+ 7% 6.35

Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

10 %

67 %62 %

1.45 → 1.46

X-1 %

23 %18 %

4.67 → 4.64

2-1 %

17 %12 %

6.39 → 6.35

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Rangers 2Draw 3Motherwell 2

Goals: 10–10 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Rangers have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
Rangers win 64% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rangers

Motherwell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rangers (3–3)

Motherwell (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rangers

Motherwell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rangers

Motherwell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rangers	Motherwell
Points	4	5
xPoints	4.2	3.8
xG per match	2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.42

Playing style	Rangers	Motherwell
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.76	0.48
xT per match	1.4	0.72
xTA per match	0.49	1
Won balls, offensive half	25	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.44	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.25
Entries into the box per match	19	12
Entries into the box against	7	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.79
Passes per match	394	464
Passes against per match	192	354
Switches of play per match	30.6	23.3
Long balls per match	33	20

Set pieces	Rangers	Motherwell
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.02
Corners per match	7.7	3.7
Corners against per match	4.7	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.76

Other	Rangers	Motherwell
Throw-in control	0.68	0.72

The goalkeepers	Ivor Pandur (Rangers)	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)
Saves	4	10
Save %	57%	71%
xG prevented	24%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rangers vs Motherwell according to our model?

The model gives Rangers a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rangers 60%, draw 23%, Motherwell 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.