01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rangers to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Scottish PremiershipIbrox Stadium, Glasgow13°14 km/h
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RangersCounter-attacks & crossesvs
St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Rangers (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · St. Mirren @ 9.00 (+35 %)
Rangers – St. Mirren · Scottish Premiership
1 · Rangers 65%X 20%15% St. Mirren · 2
65%
20%
15%
Analysis: Rangers – St. Mirren
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Rangers have scored in 16 consecutive league matches, a streak that underscores their attacking potency. However, their recent points tally of just one, versus St. Mirren's six, tells a tale of contrasting form. While Rangers dominate in expected goals with an edge of 2.2 to 1.6, St. Mirren has been defensively astute, boasting a lower expected goals against (xGA) of 0.98 compared to Rangers' 1.3. The tension lies in whether Rangers' attacking consistency can break down a robust St. Mirren defense that has been outperforming the metrics.
Rangers' home winning percentage of 64% in their last 39 matches is a formidable statistic, yet it doesn't overshadow the fact that St. Mirren has been outperforming expectations this season. The head-to-head record since 2023 is narrowly in Rangers' favor, with three wins to St. Mirren's two, but given the small sample size of seven matches, it should weigh less in our analysis than current form and expected goals.
The model predicts a tight affair, with the most likely scorelines being 2-0 and 1-0 to Rangers, and an 11% chance for each. There's a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a lean towards a game with more than two goals. Yet, the playing styles of both teams, relying on counter attacks and crosses, could mean a congested midfield battle, especially if the weather dampens the pace.
St. Mirren, despite being the underdog at a model probability of 15%, presents an intriguing value bet. The odds offered by Bet365 at 9.0, and Betsafe and Betsson at 7.8, suggest significant value given the model's 15% probability estimate. Sharp bettors might consider taking advantage of this edge, particularly if Rangers' recent struggles continue. While Rangers are rightly favored, the value lies with St. Mirren at those long odds. A 2-1 win for Rangers feels the likeliest outcome, but don't discount St. Mirren sneaking a result.
RangersForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Lawrence ShanklandFxG 0.38 · xT 0.08
- Thelo AasgaardLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.05
- Cammy DevlinCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
St. MirrenForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #5xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Eseosa SuleFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
- Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
- Paul NsioCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Rangers – St. Mirren
Predicted score matrix
St. Mirren →
Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–14.5%
0–22.1%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.5%
1–110.0%
1–24.3%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.0%
2–19.9%
2–24.4%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.5%
3–16.7%
3–23.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–06.1%
4+–15.5%
4+–22.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,04–0,90
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.32EV+1%
Over 2,556%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rangers to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Lawrence Shankland to score44%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Lawrence Shankland to score44%
- Paul Nsio to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · St. Mirren15% probability@9.00Bet365EV+35%reference odds
- 2 · St. Mirren15% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- 2 · St. Mirren15% probability@7.80BetssonEV+17%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rangers | X | 2 · St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.30 | EV+ 6% 5.25 | EV+ 35% 9.00 |
| Betsafe | 1.42 | 4.30 | EV+ 17% 7.80 |
| Betsson | 1.42 | 4.30 | EV+ 17% 7.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.42 | 4.30 | EV+ 17% 7.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.82 | EV+ 10% 7.32 |
Odds updated 15 Aug, 16:04
Odds movement
10 %
70 %65 %
1.40 → 1.40
X+1 %
22 %17 %
4.78 → 4.82
2+1 %
15 %10 %
7.27 → 7.32
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesRangers 3Draw 2St. Mirren 2
Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Rangers have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
- Rangers win 64% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rangers
St. Mirren
Rangers (2–3)
St. Mirren (3–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rangers
St. Mirren
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rangers
St. Mirren
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rangers | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 6 |
| xPoints | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.98 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Rangers | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.76 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 286 | 315 |
| Passes against per match | 217 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.4 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Rangers | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 10.2 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.67 |
| Other | Rangers | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Ivor Pandur (Rangers) | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Save % | 40% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 12% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rangers vs St. Mirren according to our model?
The model gives Rangers a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rangers 65%, draw 20%, St. Mirren 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.