St. Johnstone vs Celtic: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Scottish Premiership22 August 2026 16:00 CESTMcDiarmid Park, Perth13°12 km/h

St. JohnstonePossession & high press

CelticPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Celtic (70%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · St. Johnstone 11%X 18%70% Celtic · 2

18%

70%

Analysis: St. Johnstone – Celtic

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Celtic FC's rampaging run of nine consecutive wins is the defining feature of this matchup against St. Johnstone. The model gives Celtic a commanding 70% chance to extend that streak, and it's not hard to see why. Their expected goals (xG) per match of 4.5 dwarfs St. Johnstone's 1.6, establishing a clear dominance in offensive production. Both sides favor a possession and high press style, but Celtic's execution has been far superior, as evidenced by their recent form.

Celtic FC have scored in nine straight league matches, and they are expected to continue that trend, with an expected goals tally of 2.24 in this contest. Meanwhile, St. Johnstone's expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3 suggests they are likely to concede at least once. The most likely scorelines — 0-2 at 11% and 1-2 at 10% — highlight Celtic's scoring prowess and St. Johnstone's vulnerability at the back.

It's only been three head-to-head encounters since the start of 2023, a sample too small to overshadow Celtic's current form and statistical superiority. While St. Johnstone managed to scrape a win in one of those fixtures, the balance of play tipped heavily in Celtic's favor, reflected in their xPoints edge of 5.0 to 2.7.

Celtic FC, with a 7% edge at odds of 1.52, is an enticing proposition across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. It's a sharp angle that aligns perfectly with the model's 70% probability of an away win. The over 2.5 goals market, leaning at 61%, complements the idea of Celtic's high-scoring potential, but the real value lies in backing the visitors to continue their winning streak. Expect a convincing Celtic performance, most likely capped at a 0-2 scoreline, with the potential for more if St. Johnstone's high press leaves them exposed.

St. Johnstone

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Josh FowlerFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.71 · xT 0.61
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.72 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: St. Johnstone – Celtic

Predicted score matrix

Celtic →

St. Johnstone →

0–04.4%

0–19.1%

0–210.5%

0–37.9%

0–4+7.4%

1–03.6%

1–19.0%

1–29.8%

1–37.3%

1–4+6.9%

2–01.8%

2–14.1%

2–24.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+3.2%

3–00.6%

3–11.3%

3–21.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-211%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.1-19%
5.0-38%

Expected goals

0,93–2,24

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.42

Over 2,561%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win70%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win70%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score29%
Zach Joseph Mitchell to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Celtic70% probability@1.52BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Celtic70% probability@1.52BetssonEV+7%reference odds
2 · Celtic70% probability@1.52NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Johnstone	X	2 · Celtic
Betsafe	5.90	4.30	EV+ 7% 1.52
Betsson	5.90	4.30	EV+ 7% 1.52
Nordicbet	5.90	4.30	EV+ 7% 1.52
Pinnacle	5.59	4.52	EV+ 7% 1.51

Odds updated 14 Aug, 16:08

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

St. Johnstone 1Draw 0Celtic 2

Goals: 1–10 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC come into this round on 9 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Johnstone

Celtic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Johnstone (4–4)

Celtic (6–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Celtic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Celtic

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Johnstone	Celtic
Points	3	6
xPoints	2.7	5
xG per match	1.6	4.5
xGA per match	1.3	0.81
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	1.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.04

Playing style	St. Johnstone	Celtic
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.37
Field tilt	0.58	0.69
xT per match	0.92	2.5
xTA per match	0.8	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	28	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.31
Entries into the box per match	13	21
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.81
Passes per match	400	604
Passes against per match	354	282
Switches of play per match	30.6	31.2
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	St. Johnstone	Celtic
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	4	8.2
Corners against per match	4	4.6
xG per corner	0.1	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.44

Other	St. Johnstone	Celtic
Throw-in control	0.76	0.82

The goalkeepers	Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)
Saves	6	7
Save %	67%	88%
xG prevented	29%	82%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Johnstone vs Celtic according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 11%, draw 18%, Celtic 70%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.