01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Scottish PremiershipMcDiarmid Park, Perth16°3,4 mm24 km/h
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St. JohnstonePossession & high press2–1
HibernianPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hibernian (41%)
St. Johnstone – Hibernian · Scottish Premiership
1 · St. Johnstone 30%X 29%41% Hibernian · 2
30%
29%
41%
Analysis: St. Johnstone – Hibernian
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Three matches into their recent head-to-head, Hibernian holds the upper hand against St. Johnstone, having won twice and drawn once. This small sample leans towards the visitors, though it shouldn't overshadow current form and the expected goal metrics where the Edinburgh club edges out the hosts. With a 41% model probability favoring Hibernian, they're slightly more likely to clinch victory, while St. Johnstone's chances stand at 30%.
Both teams favor possession and a high press, which may lead to a tightly contested midfield battle. Expected goals suggest a narrow encounter—1.16 for the home side versus 1.37 for the visitors—indicating a slight advantage for Hibernian, yet not enough to predict a landslide. The most probable outcomes are a 1-1 draw (13%) or a 0-1 win for Hibernian (11%), reinforcing the notion of a low-scoring affair. The chances for both teams finding the net sit at 51%, highlighting the potential for a single goal to sway the match.
With the model rating the under 3.5 goals bet at 75% probability, and Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds at 1.35, there is a clear 2% value edge here. Expect a disciplined defensive display from both sides, with the under 3.5 line already factoring in the tactical setups of each team.
St. JohnstoneForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #7xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
- Josh FowlerFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
- Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
HibernianForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #9xP/match #2Points #7
Key players
- Martin Callie BoyleRWxG 0.61 · xT 0.03
- Jamie Terence McGrathLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
- Grant HanleyCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Final score
2 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: St. Johnstone 30% · Draw 29% · Hibernian 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - HibernianBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,71fair 10,52-27 %
MissMatchresultat - St JohnstoneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,53fair 14,51-34 %
MissMatch prediction: St. Johnstone – Hibernian
Predicted score matrix
Hibernian →
St. Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–110.6%
0–27.5%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–08.9%
1–113.0%
1–28.7%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.4%
2–17.3%
2–25.0%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.1%
3–12.8%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,16–1,37
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.96EV+3%
Over 2,546%
@1.91
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Jamie Terence McGrath to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Jamie Terence McGrath to score23%
- Jason Derek Holt to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hibernian41% probability@2.66Betfair ExchangeEV+10%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@3.75Bet365EV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Johnstone | X | 2 · Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Betfair Exchange | 2.96 | 3.15 | EV+ 10% 2.66 |
| Betsafe | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.37 | EV+ 2% 2.47 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
36 %31 %
2.80 → 2.98
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.34 → 3.37
2-2 %
41 %36 %
2.53 → 2.47
Over 2,5+1 %
54 %49 %
1.88 → 1.91
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesSt. Johnstone 0Draw 1Hibernian 2
Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Johnstone
Hibernian
St. Johnstone (6–7)
Hibernian (6–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Johnstone
Hibernian
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Johnstone
Hibernian
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Johnstone | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4.1 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.59 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | St. Johnstone | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 431 | 345 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 411 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.1 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 38 |
| Set pieces | St. Johnstone | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.26 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| Other | St. Johnstone | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone) | Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 15 |
| Save % | 75% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Johnstone vs Hibernian according to our model?
The model gives Hibernian a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 30%, draw 29%, Hibernian 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.