St. Mirren vs Celtic: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership5 September 2026 21:00 CESTSt Mirren Park, Paisley14°0,2 mm23 km/h

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St. MirrenPossession control

1–2

CelticPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Celtic (63%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 5.02 (+17 %)

1 · St. Mirren 14%X 23%63% Celtic · 2

14%

23%

63%

Analysis: St. Mirren – Celtic

Anna Karlsson · 4 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between St. Mirren and Celtic is strikingly one-sided, with the visitors boasting six wins in their last seven meetings. Yet, the hosts have found some recent resilience in their league form, maintaining an unbeaten run over the last six matches. While this might suggest an opportunity for disruption, Celtic's impressive streak of 11 consecutive league victories sets a daunting stage for St. Mirren.

Despite the historical dominance, the Saints have shown tenacity. Their playing style focuses on possession control, offering them a sliver of hope against Celtic's high press approach. However, the expected goals (xG) metric paints a clear picture: St. Mirren's xG per match sits at 1.6, far behind Celtic's 3.3. This chasm highlights the attacking threat that Celtic bring, often outmatching their opponents both in creating and converting chances.

Celtic's consistency in front of the goal is underscored by their 11-game scoring streak in the league. They are favorites not just by form but by model probabilities too, with a 63% chance of victory. The expected goals allowed (xGA) further emphasizes the divide, with the visitors conceding just 0.68 per match compared to the hosts' 1.2. This defensive solidity, combined with offensive prowess, suggests that Celtic are well-equipped to handle whatever St. Mirren throws their way.

In betting angles, the numbers strongly suggest a Celtic win, reflected by the most likely scorelines of 0-2 or 1-2. The over 2.5 goals market, with a 62% likelihood, also leans in favor of a higher-scoring affair. For those seeking value, the draw provides an intriguing 0% edge at 4.3 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, reflecting its rated 23% chance. However, with Celtic's form and firepower, the allure of a stalemate seems little more than a statistical footnote in this matchup.

St. Mirren

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #4xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Eseosa SuleFxG 0.28 · xT 0.14
Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
Paul NsioCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.03

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.10
Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.50 · xT 0.51
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.71 · xT 0.01

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Mirren 14% · Draw 23% · Celtic 63%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,68fair 4,57-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - St MirrenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,68fair 23,11-32 %

Miss

Match prediction: St. Mirren – Celtic

Predicted score matrix

Celtic →

St. Mirren →

0–04.4%

0–18.8%

0–210.0%

0–37.4%

0–4+6.8%

1–03.8%

1–19.2%

1–29.9%

1–37.2%

1–4+6.7%

2–02.0%

2–14.4%

2–24.9%

2–33.6%

2–4+3.3%

3–00.7%

3–11.4%

3–21.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-210%
2.1-210%
3.1-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,99–2,20

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.58

Over 2,562%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win63%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win63%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Daizen Maeda to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Daizen Maeda to score36%
Richard Larkland King to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw23% probability@5.02PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
1 · St. Mirren14% probability@8.00Bet365EV+9%reference odds
X · Draw23% probability@4.50Bet365EV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Mirren	X	2 · Celtic
Bet365	EV+ 9% 8.00	EV+ 5% 4.50	1.36
Betfair Exchange	5.10	EV+ 0% 4.30	1.24
Betsafe	5.90	4.15	1.48
Betsson	5.90	4.15	1.48
Nordicbet	5.90	4.15	1.48
Pinnacle	6.25	EV+ 17% 5.02	1.47

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

1+6 %

19 %14 %

5.88 → 6.25

X+6 %

22 %17 %

4.72 → 5.02

2-1 %

67 %62 %

1.47 → 1.47

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

St. Mirren 0Draw 1Celtic 6

Goals: 3–15 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
St. Mirren are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Celtic FC come into this round on 11 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Mirren

Celtic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Mirren (7–3)

Celtic (11–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

Celtic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Mirren

Celtic

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Mirren	Celtic
Points	10	12
xPoints	7	9.6
xG per match	1.6	3.3
xGA per match	1.2	0.68
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.85
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.07

Playing style	St. Mirren	Celtic
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.37
Field tilt	0.52	0.73
xT per match	1.1	1.9
xTA per match	0.75	0.44
Won balls, offensive half	25	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.22
Entries into the box per match	16	20
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.83
Passes per match	359	612
Passes against per match	383	324
Switches of play per match	22.9	42.3
Long balls per match	31	35

Set pieces	St. Mirren	Celtic
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	5.5	9.4
Corners against per match	5.7	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.53

Other	St. Mirren	Celtic
Throw-in control	0.66	0.84

The goalkeepers	Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren)	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)
Saves	9	10
Save %	75%	91%
xG prevented	96%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Mirren

Fixtures, form & tips

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Mirren vs Celtic according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 14%, draw 23%, Celtic 63%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.