01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance St. Mirren or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Scottish PremiershipSt Mirren Park, Paisley11°5,0 mm21 km/h
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St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Dundee UnitedCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · St. Mirren (40%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.68 (+3 %)
St. Mirren – Dundee United · Scottish Premiership
1 · St. Mirren 40%X 28%32% Dundee United · 2
40%
28%
32%
Analysis: St. Mirren – Dundee United
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of similar playing styles sets the stage as St. Mirren faces Dundee United in the Scottish Premiership. Both squads lean into counter attacks and crosses, suggesting an evenly matched contest. Yet, the numbers tilt slightly in favor of the home side. With a model probability giving St. Mirren a 40% chance of winning compared to Dundee United's 32%, the hosts have a slight edge. This is further supported by their superior points tally and defensive metrics, despite the visitors' historical dominance in this fixture.
Still, history can't be ignored entirely. Dundee United's five wins in their last eight encounters with St. Mirren highlight their capacity to edge past the Buddies. However, this head-to-head record should be weighed cautiously alongside more recent form and expected goals data. St. Mirren, sitting higher in the current table with 10 points to United's 5, reflects a stronger start to the season. With expected goals leaning towards a 1.74 to 1.30 advantage, the hosts seem poised to create more scoring opportunities.
The likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net is significant, at 60%, with a slight inclination towards a scoreline of 1-1 as the most probable outcome. However, the tight margins and St. Mirren's better defensive performance this season hint at a potential 2-1 victory for the home side. Over 2.5 goals seems sensible at 59%, yet the anticipated rain might dampen scoring feats, already considered in the calculations.
For those seeking value, the odds favoring St. Mirren at 2.5 with Bet365 represent a noteworthy angle. While not a guarantee, the combination of factors suggests the hosts have more than a fighting chance to secure a win here.
St. MirrenForm WDWLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #6xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Eseosa SuleFxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
- Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
- Fraser TaylorCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.20
Dundee UnitedForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #3xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Jesse Carmichael RandallLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
- Vicko SeveljCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Panutche CamaraCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: St. Mirren – Dundee United
Predicted score matrix
Dundee United →
St. Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–15.9%
0–24.1%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.0%
1–111.1%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.4%
2–26.1%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.4%
3–23.5%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,74–1,30
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.12
Over 2,559%
@1.73EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance St. Mirren or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares to score28%
- Paul Nsio to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Over 2.559% probability@1.73Bet365EV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Mirren | X | 2 · Dundee United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | EV+ 3% 3.68 | 2.82 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:12
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSt. Mirren 2Draw 1Dundee United 5
Goals: 7–10 (⌀ 2,1)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Dundee United dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Mirren
Dundee United
St. Mirren (8–6)
Dundee United (6–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Dundee United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Dundee United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Mirren | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 5 |
| xPoints | 9.1 | 6.7 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | St. Mirren | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 342 | 339 |
| Passes against per match | 399 | 333 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.2 | 33.9 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 34 |
| Set pieces | St. Mirren | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| Other | St. Mirren | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) | Jack Walton (Dundee United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 24 |
| Save % | 77% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 89% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Mirren vs Dundee United according to our model?
The model gives St. Mirren a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 40%, draw 28%, Dundee United 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.