01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)70%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Scottish PremiershipSt Mirren Park, Paisley16°31,5 mm7 km/h
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St. MirrenCounter-attacks & crosses3–3
MotherwellCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Motherwell (37%)
St. Mirren – Motherwell · Scottish Premiership
1 · St. Mirren 31%X 31%37% Motherwell · 2
31%
31%
37%
Analysis: St. Mirren – Motherwell
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Motherwell's dominance in recent head-to-head encounters with St. Mirren is stark, boasting 4 wins out of 6 meetings since 2023, while the hosts have yet to claim victory. However, St. Mirren’s current form presents a more complex picture. Despite their struggles against this particular opponent, they have managed to outpace Motherwell in both the points table and the xPoints metric, with 6 points compared to Motherwell's 4, and 3.8 xPoints versus 2.7. This suggests that while the visitors have had the upper hand historically, the hosts are no pushovers in the larger context of league performance.
Expected goals (xG) figures add another layer to the narrative. St. Mirren have averaged 1.6 xG per match compared to Motherwell’s 1.4, indicating a slight attacking edge. Defensively, the hosts are also sturdier, conceding an average of 0.98 xGA per match against Motherwell's 1.3. This defensive solidity could be crucial in a matchup where both teams employ similar tactics centered around counterattacks and crosses.
Despite these form metrics favoring St. Mirren, the model leans toward a Motherwell win, assigning them a 37% probability compared to the hosts' 31%. The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw, at 13%, reflects the balanced nature of the encounter. Yet, the model's preference aligns with available value in the betting markets: Motherwell at odds of 2.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet carries a 5% edge according to the calculated probabilities.
The 49% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals and a 53% probability of both teams scoring underline a competitive clash, yet not necessarily a high-scoring one. The numbers point toward a 0-1 or 1-2 outcome, where Motherwell’s historical confidence could tip the scales. Given the statistical edge, backing an away win at those enticing odds remains the sharpest angle.
St. MirrenForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #3
Key players
- Eseosa SuleFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
- Killian PhillipsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.09
- Paul NsioCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
MotherwellForm DLWWD
League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #10xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
- Lukas FadingerCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.05
- Tom SparrowRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Final score
3 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: St. Mirren 31% · Draw 31% · Motherwell 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MotherwellBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,73fair 9,27+5 %
MissMatchresultat - St MirrenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,91fair 13,86-36 %
MissMatch prediction: St. Mirren – Motherwell
Predicted score matrix
Motherwell →
St. Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–110.1%
0–27.6%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.7%
1–28.9%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.3%
2–25.3%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.9%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,18–1,45
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.91
Over 2,549%
@1.96
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)70%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise to score30%
- Richard Larkland King to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Motherwell37% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 2 · Motherwell37% probability@2.82BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- 2 · Motherwell37% probability@2.82NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Mirren | X | 2 · Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.52 | EV+ 4% 3.30 | EV+ 5% 2.82 |
| Betsson | 2.52 | EV+ 4% 3.30 | EV+ 5% 2.82 |
| Nordicbet | 2.52 | EV+ 4% 3.30 | EV+ 5% 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.77 | EV+ 3% 3.28 | EV+ 0% 2.70 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:14
Odds movement
1+8 %
38 %33 %
2.56 → 2.77
X+3 %
32 %27 %
3.18 → 3.28
2-6 %
37 %32 %
2.88 → 2.70
Over 2,50 %
51 %46 %
1.97 → 1.96
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesSt. Mirren 0Draw 2Motherwell 4
Goals: 3–12 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Motherwell Football Club dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Mirren
Motherwell
St. Mirren (3–0)
Motherwell (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Motherwell
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Motherwell
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 4 |
| xPoints | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | St. Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.55 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 14 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 473 |
| Passes against per match | 350 | 363 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 27.4 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 19 |
| Set pieces | St. Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.8 |
| Other | St. Mirren | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) | Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 4 |
| Save % | 100% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 26% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Mirren vs Motherwell according to our model?
The model gives Motherwell a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 31%, draw 31%, Motherwell 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.