Čukarički vs Vojvodina: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League29 August 2026 21:00 CESTStadion Čukarički, Belgrad26°35 km/h

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ČukaričkiLow block & direct

0–5

VojvodinaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Vojvodina (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · Čukarički @ 3.73 (+24 %)

1 · Čukarički 33%X 29%38% Vojvodina · 2

33%

29%

38%

Analysis: Čukarički – Vojvodina

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Five encounters between Čukarički and Vojvodina since 2023 have tilted in favor of the visitors, with Vojvodina securing three wins to Čukarički's two. Yet, the small sample size tempers its weight against current form and expected goals metrics. Both sides showcase tactical contrasts, with the hosts leaning towards a low-defense, direct style, while Vojvodina emphasizes possession control. This dynamic often yields a high-scoring affair, averaging 3.0 goals per match.

Performance-wise, Vojvodina holds a slight edge on points, 12 to Čukarički's 10. However, the expected points tilt back to the hosts at 9.3 versus 9.0, suggesting their performances have not fully translated into results. The expected goals (xG) figures present Vojvodina with an offensive advantage, averaging 1.9 xG per match compared to Čukarički's 1.2. On the defensive side, both teams concede similarly, with xGA sitting at 1.5 for Vojvodina and 1.6 for Čukarički.

The model probabilities give Vojvodina a 38% chance of victory, slightly higher than Čukarički's 33%, which corresponds with the team's current form and playing style. The most likely scorelines point towards a 1-1 draw or marginal away wins, indicating a closely contested battle with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams scoring.

For the value hunter, Čukarički presents an intriguing opportunity. Despite being the underdog, the hosts offer a significant value edge at odds of 3.55 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, with the model assigning them a 33% chance to win, highlighting an 18% positive expected value. This represents the sharpest angle for those looking to exploit bookmaker mispricing in this matchup.

Čukarički

Form WWDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #10xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Marko DocićFxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Veljko RadosavljevićFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.49 · xT 0.17

Vojvodina

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #2xP/match #6Points #2

Key players

Nardin MulahusejnovicFxG 0.98 · xT 0.03
Lazar RanđelovićRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.24
Njegoš PetrovićCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Final score

0 – 5

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Čukarički 33% · Draw 29% · Vojvodina 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CukarickiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,06fair 10,05+10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - VojvodinaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,55fair 9,84-44 %

Miss

Match prediction: Čukarički – Vojvodina

Predicted score matrix

Vojvodina →

Čukarički →

0–06.7%

0–18.4%

0–26.1%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.3%

1–112.4%

1–28.4%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.0%

2–18.3%

2–25.7%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.7%

3–13.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,37–1,39

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.04

Over 2,552%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vojvodina or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vojvodina or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Dejan Zukić to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Uroš Miladinović to score25%
Marko Docić to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Čukarički33% probability@3.73PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
1 · Čukarički33% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
1 · Čukarički33% probability@3.70BetssonEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Čukarički	X	2 · Vojvodina
Bet365	EV+ 8% 3.25	EV+ 2% 3.50	2.10
Betfair Exchange	1.11	1.11	1.17
Betsafe	EV+ 23% 3.70	3.40	1.85
Betsson	EV+ 23% 3.70	3.40	1.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 23% 3.70	3.40	1.85
Pinnacle	EV+ 24% 3.73	3.41	1.87

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:24

Odds movement

1+3 %

27 %22 %

3.62 → 3.73

X-5 %

28 %23 %

3.58 → 3.41

2+1 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.87

Over 2,5+5 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.73

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Čukarički 2Draw 0Vojvodina 3

Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Čukarički

Vojvodina

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Čukarički (9–7)

Vojvodina (10–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Čukarički

Vojvodina

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Čukarički

Vojvodina

The teams in numbers

Performance	Čukarički	Vojvodina
Points	10	12
xPoints	9.3	9
xG per match	1.2	1.9
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.57

Playing style	Čukarički	Vojvodina
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.33	0.6
xT per match	0.87	1.4
xTA per match	1.6	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	26	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	17	9
Pass completion %	0.67	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.7
Passes per match	225	293
Passes against per match	391	279
Switches of play per match	16.3	20.4
Long balls per match	26	30

Set pieces	Čukarički	Vojvodina
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.04
Corners per match	2.7	5.5
Corners against per match	6.2	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.67

Other	Čukarički	Vojvodina
Throw-in control	0.62	0.64

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Nikolić (Čukarički)	Dragan Rosić (Vojvodina)
Saves	17	22
Save %	85%	79%
xG prevented	84%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Čukarički

Fixtures, form & tips

Vojvodina

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Čukarički vs Vojvodina according to our model?

The model gives Vojvodina a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Čukarički 33%, draw 29%, Vojvodina 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.