01 · 2 legs
Safe
- IMT to win64%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serbian Super League27°10 km/h
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IMTCounter-attacks & crosses2–0
Mladost LučaniLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · IMT (64%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.00 (+20 %)
IMT – Mladost Lučani · Serbian Super League
1 · IMT 64%X 23%13% Mladost Lučani · 2
64%
23%
13%
Analysis: IMT – Mladost Lučani
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
FAKTA'yı ihlal eden noktalar var. Düzeltilmiş metin:
IMT's 64% chance of victory stands starkly against Mladost Lučani's unbeaten run of eight league games. Despite Mladost's historical edge in this fixture with two wins in five meetings, the sample size is too small to outweigh current form and expected goals data. IMT holds the upper hand with 2.03 expected goals against the visitors' 0.73, suggesting that the hosts' counter-attacking and crossing strategy could find success against Mladost's low defensive line.
The 1-1 scoreline sits at a 10% likelihood, but the data leans heavily towards IMT securing a win, with 2-0 and 1-0 both pegged at 13%. This aligns with IMT's superior xG and xGA metrics, indicating they create more chances while also being more defensively robust compared to Mladost. The model's slight inclination towards over 2.5 goals at 52% suggests a cautious approach to the total, yet IMT's style may see them edge over the line with a couple of goals.
Mladost's strategy, focusing on low defense and direct play, might make it tough for them to penetrate IMT's defenses. Despite their unbeaten streak, their performance metrics don't inspire confidence: a mediocre xG of 1.0 and a relatively high xGA of 1.3. In contrast, IMT's proactive playstyle, evidenced by 0.2 xG within 8 seconds of winning possession, could exploit Mladost's weaknesses.
Therefore, a home win seems the most likely outcome. Both teams scoring sits at a 45% probability, indicating a reasonably even chance that Mladost could find the net despite IMT's favorable metrics. The sharpest angle here is a straight IMT win at a standout 64% probability.
IMTForm WWLDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #7xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
- Tadija CojicFxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
- Vasilije NovičićCDMxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
Mladost LučaniForm DDDWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.32 · xT 0.07
- Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.38 · xT -0.01
- Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.18
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: IMT 64% · Draw 23% · Mladost Lučani 13%
Match prediction: IMT – Mladost Lučani
Predicted score matrix
Mladost Lučani →
IMT →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–14.3%
0–21.7%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–012.5%
1–19.7%
1–23.4%
1–30.8%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–013.0%
2–19.5%
2–23.5%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.8%
3–16.5%
3–22.4%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–07.1%
4+–15.2%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,03–0,73
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.67
Over 2,552%
@2.25EV+18%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- IMT to win64%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Charly Soualio Keita to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Charly Soualio Keita to score30%
- Dušan Jovančić to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.530% probability@4.00Bet365EV+20%reference odds
- Over 3.530% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+20%reference odds
- 1 · IMT64% probability@1.85Bet365EV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · IMT | X | 2 · Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 19% 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Paddy Power | EV+ 19% 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 1.61 | 3.54 | 5.20 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:13
Odds movement
10 %
59 %54 %
1.61 → 1.61
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.54 → 3.54
2-1 %
20 %15 %
5.24 → 5.20
Over 2,50 %
46 %41 %
2.12 → 2.13
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesIMT 1Draw 2Mladost Lučani 2
Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Mladost Lucani dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- FK Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
IMT
Mladost Lučani
IMT (8–4)
Mladost Lučani (7–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
IMT
Mladost Lučani
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
IMT
Mladost Lučani
The teams in numbers
| Performance | IMT | Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 10 |
| xPoints | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 0.96 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.08 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | IMT | Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.28 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 0.72 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 230 |
| Passes against per match | 255 | 452 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.3 | 12 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 25 |
| Set pieces | IMT | Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Other | IMT | Mladost Lučani |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Ognjen Čančarević (IMT) | Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 30 |
| Save % | 78% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 89% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Zemun – Red Star Belgrade30 August 2026
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins IMT vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?
The model gives IMT a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IMT 64%, draw 23%, Mladost Lučani 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.