Serbian Super League28°25 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Mačva ŠabacMačva ŠabacLow block & direct
    vs
    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923Possession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Radnički 1923 (49%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.65 (+24 %)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Mačva Šabac – Radnički 1923 · Serbian Super League

    1 · Mačva Šabac 25%X 26%49% Radnički 1923 · 2

    Analysis: Mačva Šabac – Radnički 1923

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    With a 49% winning probability, Radnički 1923 are well-positioned to take the upper hand against Mačva Šabac in this Super League clash. Despite their modest point advantage (Radnički 1923's 10 points versus Mačva's 7), the visitors display superior expected goals per match at 1.5 compared to Mačva's 0.75. This offensive edge aligns with the model's lean, supported by Radnički's possession-focused style against Mačva's more direct approach.

    Radnički 1923's defensive metrics further strengthen their case. Conceding an average of 1.2 expected goals per match, they outclass the hosts' 1.9 xGA. However, the model also suggests a balanced scoreline is possible, with a 1-1 draw at 11% probability. The over 2.5 goals occurring in 56% of simulations signals an open game, but Mačva's home resilience should not be entirely discounted.

    For those seeking value, the over 3.5 goals market offers a standout opportunity. At odds of 3.35 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model identifies a 14% edge based on a 34% likelihood. While not a guarantee, this presents a sharp betting angle in a match where Radnički 1923 appear the stronger side.

    Mačva ŠabacMačva Šabac
    Form LWLWD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #14xP/match #12Points #11
    Key players
    • Milan VidakovFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
    • Luka PejovicLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
    • Abdulahi Sani MuhamedRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923
    Form LWWWD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #3xP/match #9Points #4
    Key players
    • Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
    • Uroš SremčevićFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
    • Miloš RistićCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Mačva Šabac – Radnički 1923

    Predicted score matrix

    Radnički 1923 →
    Mačva Šabac →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–19.7%
    0–29.4%
    0–35.9%
    0–4+4.3%
    1
    1–05.3%
    1–110.8%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.2%
    1–4+4.5%
    2
    2–02.9%
    2–15.5%
    2–25.2%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+2.4%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.1-36%
    Expected goals
    1,06–1,88
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @1.75
    Over 2,556%
    @2.08EV+15%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Radnički 1923 to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.14

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Radnički 1923 to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Nemanja Glavčić to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Nemanja Glavčić to score20%
    • Miloš Ristić to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.534% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
    • Over 3.534% probability@3.65BetssonEV+24%reference odds
    • Over 3.534% probability@3.65NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mačva ŠabacX2 · Radnički 1923
    Bet3653.303.30
    EV+ 3%
    2.10
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 6%
    4.30    		2.901.88
    Betsafe3.903.201.88
    Betsson3.903.201.88
    Nordicbet3.903.201.88

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 02:31

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Radnički 1923 win since 3 September — the odds have shortened from 1.18 to 1.88 (−59%).

    1+287 %
    37 %17 %

    1.11 → 4.30

    X+161 %
    41 %21 %

    1.11 → 2.90

    2+59 %
    51 %31 %

    1.18 → 1.88

    Over 2,5+93 %
    57 %37 %

    1.02 → 1.97

    Betfair Exchange · 8 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mačva Šabac
    Radnički 1923
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mačva Šabac (5–13)
    Radnički 1923 (7–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Nikola Lainović: 119 passningar, xT 0.49LainovićSlobodan Sladojevic: 116 passningar, xT 0.13SladojevicKosta Rakonić: 100 passningar, xT 0.03RakonićIgor Ristivojevic: 95 passningar, xT 0.16RistivojevicKristijan Tojcic: 87 passningar, xT -0.03TojcicLuka Pejovic: 70 passningar, xT 0.72PejovicĐorđe Đorđić: 60 passningar, xT 0.05ĐorđićDarko Terzic: 59 passningar, xT 0.03TerzicBosko Vrastanovic: 53 passningar, xT 0.02VrastanovicNemanja Stevanovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.39StevanovicMilan Vidakov: 47 passningar, xT 0.31Vidakov
    Radnički 1923
    Slobodan Simović: 224 passningar, xT 0.32SimovićNikola Marjanović: 184 passningar, xT 0.28MarjanovićLuka Lijeskić: 168 passningar, xT 0.26LijeskićNemanja Glavčić: 149 passningar, xT 0.6GlavčićBojica Nikčević: 138 passningar, xT 0.5NikčevićIlija Babić: 114 passningar, xT 0.59BabićMiloš Ristić: 95 passningar, xT 0.22RistićJovan Ilic: 71 passningar, xT 0.19IlicVanja Tomic: 67 passningar, xT -0.04TomicSemir Alić: 51 passningar, xT 0.12AlićMohamed Cissé: 47 passningar, xT 1.01Cissé
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Nikola Lainović: 119 passningar, xT 0.49LainovićSlobodan Sladojevic: 116 passningar, xT 0.13SladojevicKosta Rakonić: 100 passningar, xT 0.03RakonićIgor Ristivojevic: 95 passningar, xT 0.16RistivojevicKristijan Tojcic: 87 passningar, xT -0.03TojcicLuka Pejovic: 70 passningar, xT 0.72PejovicĐorđe Đorđić: 60 passningar, xT 0.05ĐorđićDarko Terzic: 59 passningar, xT 0.03TerzicBosko Vrastanovic: 53 passningar, xT 0.02VrastanovicNemanja Stevanovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.39StevanovicMilan Vidakov: 47 passningar, xT 0.31Vidakov
    Radnički 1923
    Slobodan Simović: 224 passningar, xT 0.32SimovićNikola Marjanović: 184 passningar, xT 0.28MarjanovićLuka Lijeskić: 168 passningar, xT 0.26LijeskićNemanja Glavčić: 149 passningar, xT 0.6GlavčićBojica Nikčević: 138 passningar, xT 0.5NikčevićIlija Babić: 114 passningar, xT 0.59BabićMiloš Ristić: 95 passningar, xT 0.22RistićJovan Ilic: 71 passningar, xT 0.19IlicVanja Tomic: 67 passningar, xT -0.04TomicSemir Alić: 51 passningar, xT 0.12AlićMohamed Cissé: 47 passningar, xT 1.01Cissé

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMačva ŠabacRadnički 1923
    Points710
    xPoints8.38
    xG per match0.751.5
    xGA per match1.91.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.31
    Playing styleMačva ŠabacRadnički 1923
    Build-up efficiency0.220.3
    Field tilt0.220.58
    xT per match0.641.3
    xTA per match1.51.1
    Won balls, offensive half1622
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.260.38
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.35
    Entries into the box per match716
    Entries into the box against1814
    Pass completion %0.650.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.67
    Passes per match202319
    Passes against per match379211
    Switches of play per match15.324.3
    Long balls per match2126
    Set piecesMačva ŠabacRadnički 1923
    xG from free kicks0.030.1
    Corners per match2.47.2
    Corners against per match5.74.5
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.52
    OtherMačva ŠabacRadnički 1923
    Throw-in control0.610.67
    The goalkeepersKosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac)Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923)
    Saves1820
    Save %62%77%
    xG prevented42%57%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mačva Šabac vs Radnički 1923 according to our model?

    The model gives Radnički 1923 a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mačva Šabac 25%, draw 26%, Radnički 1923 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ČukaričkiČukarički
    3–0
    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923
    1 32%X 30%2 38%
    The model missed the outcome
    Novi PazarNovi Pazar
    1–4
    OFK BeogradOFK Beograd
    1 45%X 30%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
    1–2
    IMTIMT
    1 60%X 21%2 19%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.