Serbian Super League29°0,3 mm10 km/h

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    Mačva ŠabacMačva ŠabacLow block & direct
    vs
    Radnički NišRadnički NišPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Radnički Niš (45%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Mačva Šabac – Radnički Niš · Serbian Super League

    1 · Mačva Šabac 29%X 26%45% Radnički Niš · 2

    Analysis: Mačva Šabac – Radnički Niš

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    45% is the key number here, as it represents FK Radnicki Nis's probability of winning this clash against FK Macva Sabac, according to the model. This edge is palpable, especially when you delve into the nitty-gritty of expected goals and team play styles. FK Macva Sabac might have home advantage, but their defensive frailties are glaring, conceding 2.0 xGA per match. This might just spell trouble against a high-pressing FK Radnicki Nis side that generates a solid 1.4 xG.

    FK Radnicki Nis, despite sitting just a single point ahead in the standings, shows a significant edge in key metrics. Their possession-based approach could very well exploit FK Macva Sabac's low defensive line, particularly with the visitors' ability to exert pressure high up the pitch. Given the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1, it’s clear the model sees this match as competitive yet slightly tilted towards FK Radnicki Nis.

    The model predicts a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals, indicating a marginal propensity for a more open game despite FK Macva Sabac’s penchant for direct play. Weather conditions aren’t mentioned, so the typical high-energy press from FK Radnicki Nis might find more success than usual. It’s a fine margin, but given the defensive inefficiencies of FK Macva Sabac, a scoreline of 1-2 seems plausible.

    If you're looking for value, FK Radnicki Nis represents an enticing prospect. The odds of 2.38 available from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 7% edge according to the model’s evaluation. This isn't just an opportunistic punt; it's an evidence-based decision grounded in statistical probability. If there’s a bet to be made here, the smart money leans on the away side to edge out FK Macva Sabac, with the numbers and style of play pointing firmly in their favor.

    Mačva ŠabacMačva Šabac
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #14xP/match #12Points #13
    Key players
    • Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    • Luka PejovicLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
    • Milan VidakovFxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
    Radnički NišRadnički Niš
    Form WLLWD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #4xP/match #11Points #11
    Key players
    • Issah AbassLWxG 0.43 · xT 0.36
    • Radomir MilosavljevićCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
    • Igor IvanovićRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Mačva Šabac – Radnički Niš

    Predicted score matrix

    Radnički Niš →
    Mačva Šabac →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.1%
    0–110.9%
    0–29.3%
    0–35.1%
    0–4+3.1%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.6%
    1–35.3%
    1–4+3.2%
    2
    2–03.6%
    2–16.0%
    2–25.0%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.7%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,04–1,66
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.70
    Over 2,551%
    @2.05EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (X2)77%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.85

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (X2)77%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Miloš Spasić to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Miloš Spasić to score29%
    • Bojan Kovacevic to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Radnički Niš45% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Radnički Niš45% probability@2.38BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Radnički Niš45% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mačva ŠabacX2 · Radnički Niš
    Betsafe2.803.10
    EV+ 7%
    2.38
    Betsson2.803.10
    EV+ 7%
    2.38
    Nordicbet2.803.10
    EV+ 7%
    2.38

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    35 %30 %

    2.80 → 2.80

    X0 %
    32 %27 %

    3.10 → 3.10

    20 %
    41 %36 %

    2.38 → 2.38

    Over 2,5-1 %
    48 %43 %

    2.08 → 2.05

    Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mačva Šabac
    Radnički Niš
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mačva Šabac (3–12)
    Radnički Niš (2–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Kosta Rakonić: 131 passningar, xT 0.05RakonićSlobodan Sladojevic: 106 passningar, xT 0.39SladojevicDarko Terzic: 99 passningar, xT 0.17TerzicKristijan Tojcic: 84 passningar, xT 0TojcicVladimir Ilić: 73 passningar, xT 0.2IlićIgor Ristivojevic: 72 passningar, xT 0.13RistivojevicĐorđe Đorđić: 72 passningar, xT 0.03ĐorđićNikola Lainović: 69 passningar, xT 0.08LainovićBosko Vrastanovic: 56 passningar, xT 0.34VrastanovicLuka Pejovic: 49 passningar, xT 0.58PejovicMilan Vidakov: 47 passningar, xT 0.04Vidakov
    Radnički Niš
    Uroš Vitas: 199 passningar, xT 0.27VitasFranck Kanoute: 146 passningar, xT 0.38KanouteRanko Jokić: 141 passningar, xT 0.33JokićRadomir Milosavljević: 134 passningar, xT 0.51MilosavljevićIssah Abass: 123 passningar, xT 1.29AbassNikola Zečević: 106 passningar, xT 0.15ZečevićMarko Mijailović: 85 passningar, xT 0.45MijailovićLuka Izderić: 84 passningar, xT -0.15IzderićBojan Kovacevic: 79 passningar, xT 0.19KovacevicIgor Ivanović: 61 passningar, xT 0.45IvanovićDjordje Petrovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.21Petrovic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Kosta Rakonić: 131 passningar, xT 0.05RakonićSlobodan Sladojevic: 106 passningar, xT 0.39SladojevicDarko Terzic: 99 passningar, xT 0.17TerzicKristijan Tojcic: 84 passningar, xT 0TojcicVladimir Ilić: 73 passningar, xT 0.2IlićIgor Ristivojevic: 72 passningar, xT 0.13RistivojevicĐorđe Đorđić: 72 passningar, xT 0.03ĐorđićNikola Lainović: 69 passningar, xT 0.08LainovićBosko Vrastanovic: 56 passningar, xT 0.34VrastanovicLuka Pejovic: 49 passningar, xT 0.58PejovicMilan Vidakov: 47 passningar, xT 0.04Vidakov
    Radnički Niš
    Uroš Vitas: 199 passningar, xT 0.27VitasFranck Kanoute: 146 passningar, xT 0.38KanouteRanko Jokić: 141 passningar, xT 0.33JokićRadomir Milosavljević: 134 passningar, xT 0.51MilosavljevićIssah Abass: 123 passningar, xT 1.29AbassNikola Zečević: 106 passningar, xT 0.15ZečevićMarko Mijailović: 85 passningar, xT 0.45MijailovićLuka Izderić: 84 passningar, xT -0.15IzderićBojan Kovacevic: 79 passningar, xT 0.19KovacevicIgor Ivanović: 61 passningar, xT 0.45IvanovićDjordje Petrovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.21Petrovic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMačva ŠabacRadnički Niš
    Points34
    xPoints5.64.6
    xG per match0.71.4
    xGA per match21.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.14
    Playing styleMačva ŠabacRadnički Niš
    Build-up efficiency0.230.31
    Field tilt0.190.78
    xT per match0.521.3
    xTA per match1.50.69
    Won balls, offensive half1529
    Pressing intensity0.240.19
    Pressing efficiency0.260.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.160.29
    Entries into the box per match616
    Entries into the box against1910
    Pass completion %0.660.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.75
    Passes per match201374
    Passes against per match384225
    Switches of play per match15.526.7
    Long balls per match2237
    Set piecesMačva ŠabacRadnički Niš
    xG from free kicks0.030
    Corners per match25.6
    Corners against per match5.43.2
    xG per corner0.050.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.440.69
    OtherMačva ŠabacRadnički Niš
    Throw-in control0.620.72
    The goalkeepersKosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac)Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš)
    Saves187
    Save %62%100%
    xG prevented42%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mačva Šabac vs Radnički Niš according to our model?

    The model gives Radnički Niš a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mačva Šabac 29%, draw 26%, Radnički Niš 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.