Serbian Super League25°18 km/h

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    Mladost LučaniMladost LučaniLow block & direct
    1–0
    Radnički NišRadnički NišPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Radnički Niš (39%)

    Mladost Lučani – Radnički Niš · Serbian Super League

    1 · Mladost Lučani 31%X 30%39% Radnički Niš · 2

    Analysis: Mladost Lučani – Radnički Niš

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The model gives Radnički Niš a slight edge with a 39% win probability, while Mladost Lučani sits at 31%. Despite the close expected goals, the visitors' possession-based style may allow them to control the tempo against a host team focused on direct, low-defense play. This clash of styles might nuance the model's preference for Radnički.

    Mladost holds a narrow edge in points (10 vs 5), but Radnički's historical dominance in this fixture—albeit from a small sample of five meetings—cannot be ignored. Radnički's higher xG per match (1.2) suggests a slightly more potent attack, which contrasts with the hosts' lower xG (0.89) and higher xGA (1.2). The expected goals numbers are nearly even (1.15 for Mladost, 1.13 for Radnički), indicating a tight match likely decided by fine margins.

    Given the low over 2.5 goals probability (40%), a closely contested 1-1 or narrow 1-0 either way seems probable. Both teams to score sits at 47%, reinforcing a likely cagey affair. For value seekers, Radnički Niš winning at odds above 2.5 might present an enticing edge in a match that seems destined to be decided by the slimmest of margins.

    Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani
    Form DDWWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #7xT #13xP/match #8Points #5
    Key players
    • Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04
    • Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.30 · xT -0.01
    • Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
    Radnički NišRadnički Niš
    Form LWDLD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #5xP/match #11Points #13
    Key players
    • Aleksandr ShestyukFxG 0.61 · xT 0.10
    • Issah AbassLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.28
    • Uroš VitasCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Mladost Lučani 31% · Draw 30% · Radnički Niš 39%

    Match prediction: Mladost Lučani – Radnički Niš

    Predicted score matrix

    Radnički Niš →
    Mladost Lučani →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.6%
    0–111.1%
    0–26.5%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.5%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–17.7%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–12.9%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-111%
    4. 4.0-011%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,15–1,13
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.61
    Over 2,540%
    @2.30

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (X2)64%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (X2)64%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Igor Ivanović to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Jovan Ćirić to score20%
    • Radomir Milosavljević to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Radnički Niš39% probability@2.88Bet365EV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Mladost LučaniX2 · Radnički Niš
    Bet3652.453.20
    EV+ 11%
    2.88
    Betfair Exchange1.171.131.17
    Pinnacle2.762.932.55

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 02:32

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    35 %30 %

    2.68 → 2.76

    X0 %
    34 %29 %

    2.93 → 2.93

    2-3 %
    39 %34 %

    2.62 → 2.55

    Over 2,5-1 %
    44 %39 %

    2.25 → 2.23

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Mladost Lučani 1Draw 2Radnički Niš 2
    Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Radnicki Nis dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mladost Lučani
    Radnički Niš
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mladost Lučani (7–6)
    Radnički Niš (3–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 152 passningar, xT 0.37JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 147 passningar, xT 0.19ĆirkovićDušan Jovančić: 145 passningar, xT 0.09JovančićNikola Andrić: 140 passningar, xT 0.14AndrićAleksandar Varjačić: 109 passningar, xT 0.61VarjačićSaša Stamenković: 95 passningar, xT 0.2StamenkovićVeljko Kijevčanin: 90 passningar, xT 0.29KijevčaninŽarko Udovičić: 78 passningar, xT 1.02UdovičićVasil Tašovski: 67 passningar, xT -0.17TašovskiMiloš Cvetković: 49 passningar, xT 0.01CvetkovićJovan Ćirić: 42 passningar, xT 0.54Ćirić
    Radnički Niš
    Ranko Jokić: 221 passningar, xT 0.65JokićUroš Vitas: 148 passningar, xT 0.22VitasBojan Kovacevic: 141 passningar, xT 0.48KovacevicRadomir Milosavljević: 128 passningar, xT 0.42MilosavljevićFranck Kanoute: 127 passningar, xT 0.32KanouteIssah Abass: 119 passningar, xT 1.28AbassNikola Zečević: 115 passningar, xT 0.25ZečevićIvan Kostić: 93 passningar, xT 0.05KostićLuka Izderić: 79 passningar, xT 0.09IzderićMarko Mijailović: 60 passningar, xT 0.7MijailovićDjordje Petrovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.21Petrovic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 152 passningar, xT 0.37JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 147 passningar, xT 0.19ĆirkovićDušan Jovančić: 145 passningar, xT 0.09JovančićNikola Andrić: 140 passningar, xT 0.14AndrićAleksandar Varjačić: 109 passningar, xT 0.61VarjačićSaša Stamenković: 95 passningar, xT 0.2StamenkovićVeljko Kijevčanin: 90 passningar, xT 0.29KijevčaninŽarko Udovičić: 78 passningar, xT 1.02UdovičićVasil Tašovski: 67 passningar, xT -0.17TašovskiMiloš Cvetković: 49 passningar, xT 0.01CvetkovićJovan Ćirić: 42 passningar, xT 0.54Ćirić
    Radnički Niš
    Ranko Jokić: 221 passningar, xT 0.65JokićUroš Vitas: 148 passningar, xT 0.22VitasBojan Kovacevic: 141 passningar, xT 0.48KovacevicRadomir Milosavljević: 128 passningar, xT 0.42MilosavljevićFranck Kanoute: 127 passningar, xT 0.32KanouteIssah Abass: 119 passningar, xT 1.28AbassNikola Zečević: 115 passningar, xT 0.25ZečevićIvan Kostić: 93 passningar, xT 0.05KostićLuka Izderić: 79 passningar, xT 0.09IzderićMarko Mijailović: 60 passningar, xT 0.7MijailovićDjordje Petrovic: 50 passningar, xT 0.21Petrovic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMladost LučaniRadnički Niš
    Points105
    xPoints9.87.8
    xG per match0.891.2
    xGA per match1.21
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.14
    Playing styleMladost LučaniRadnički Niš
    Build-up efficiency0.280.31
    Field tilt0.260.69
    xT per match0.781.2
    xTA per match1.40.75
    Won balls, offensive half1831
    Pressing intensity0.240.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.3
    Entries into the box per match1014
    Entries into the box against1510
    Pass completion %0.680.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.72
    Passes per match239328
    Passes against per match443245
    Switches of play per match11.422.7
    Long balls per match2435
    Set piecesMladost LučaniRadnički Niš
    xG from free kicks0.070.02
    Corners per match2.84.7
    Corners against per match5.53.8
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.52
    OtherMladost LučaniRadnički Niš
    Throw-in control0.640.69
    The goalkeepersSaša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš)
    Saves3314
    Save %85%88%
    xG prevented82%95%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Mladost Lučani
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Radnički Niš
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mladost Lučani vs Radnički Niš according to our model?

    The model gives Radnički Niš a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladost Lučani 31%, draw 30%, Radnički Niš 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.