01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Novi Pazar to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Serbian Super League26°0,1 mm16 km/h
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Novi PazarLow block & direct1–1
Mačva ŠabacLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Novi Pazar (61%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.00 (+34 %)
Novi Pazar – Mačva Šabac · Serbian Super League
1 · Novi Pazar 61%X 23%16% Mačva Šabac · 2
61%
23%
16%
Analysis: Novi Pazar – Mačva Šabac
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT CORRIGÉ:
Novi Pazar carries a clear advantage into this match, with a 61% probability of victory according to the model. Their attacking potential, underlined by an expected goals tally of 2.07, contrasts sharply with Mačva Šabac's 0.97. This disparity in offensive output strongly favors Novi Pazar, who also edge the visitors in both points and xPoints metrics. Despite this, their defensive vulnerabilities, shared by both teams, could still make for a competitive encounter.
The predicted scorelines of 2-0, 2-1, and 1-1 each hover at 10%, showing a potential for variability. Both sides employ a low defence and direct style, which suggests that defensive lapses could be capitalized on, pushing the match towards the 59% probability of over 2.5 goals. Indeed, the matchup's directness could foster scoring chances on both ends, reflected in the 55% chance of both teams finding the net.
Yet, the numbers reveal a more nuanced scenario. Novi Pazar's xG per match stands at 1.4, nearly double that of Mačva Šabac's 0.72, suggesting a greater likelihood of Novi Pazar breaking down the opposition. On the defensive side, Novi Pazar concedes fewer expected goals per match than Mačva, cementing their status as favorites. However, their xGA of 1.6 isn't exactly airtight, leaving room for Mačva to exploit.
Where the betting value truly lies is in the total goals market. The value proposition for over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet stands out. The model rates this outcome at 36%, offering a 2% edge. Given both teams' defensive frailties and direct playing styles, this bet taps into the potential for a higher-scoring affair beyond the surface statistics.
Expect a 2-1 result in favor of Novi Pazar, with the potential for more goals than the market initially suggests. Keep an eye on that over 3.5 goals angle — it’s the sharpest play according to the numbers.
Novi PazarForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #13xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Dominic Wadi SadiCAMxG 0.37 · xT 0.02
- Vieiri KotzebueFxG 0.32 · xT 0.08
- Fejsal MulićLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.00
Mačva ŠabacForm LLWLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #14xP/match #10Points #10
Key players
- Luka PejovicLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
- Milan VidakovFxG 0.35 · xT 0.02
- Abdulahi Sani MuhamedRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Novi Pazar 61% · Draw 23% · Mačva Šabac 16%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Novi PazarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,17fair 5,12+1 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Macva SabacBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,20fair 23,21-26 %
MissMatch prediction: Novi Pazar – Mačva Šabac
Predicted score matrix
Mačva Šabac →
Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–14.4%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–09.6%
1–19.9%
1–24.7%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.1%
3–16.9%
3–23.3%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–15.7%
4+–22.8%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,07–0,97
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@1.95
Over 2,559%
@2.00EV+17%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Novi Pazar to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Dominic Wadi Sadi to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Dominic Wadi Sadi to score34%
- Kristijan Tojčić to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.519% probability@7.00Paddy PowerEV+34%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.40Bet365EV+23%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Novi Pazar | X | 2 · Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 5% 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.17 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Betsafe | 1.55 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Betsson | 1.55 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.55 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Paddy Power | 1.61 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.76 | 4.76 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:24
Odds movement
1+2 %
60 %55 %
1.58 → 1.61
X-4 %
26 %21 %
3.91 → 3.76
2-1 %
21 %16 %
4.83 → 4.76
Over 2,5+6 %
55 %50 %
1.73 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Novi Pazar
Mačva Šabac
Novi Pazar (4–7)
Mačva Šabac (4–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
Mačva Šabac
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
Mačva Šabac
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Novi Pazar | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 6 |
| xPoints | 8.4 | 7.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 0.72 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.43 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Novi Pazar | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 0.54 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 276 | 204 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 373 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.8 | 15.2 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 21 |
| Set pieces | Novi Pazar | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| Other | Novi Pazar | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar) | Kosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 18 |
| Save % | 84% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 77% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Novi Pazar vs Mačva Šabac according to our model?
The model gives Novi Pazar a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 61%, draw 23%, Mačva Šabac 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.