Novi Pazar vs Zemun: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League19 September 202619°0,3 mm6 km/h

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Novi PazarLow block & direct

ZemunLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Novi Pazar (65%)

1 · Novi Pazar 65%X 21%14% Zemun · 2

65%

21%

14%

Analysis: Novi Pazar – Zemun

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: A striking 65% chance for a Novi Pazar victory sets the stage for their clash against Zemun, whose struggles are evident in a seven-match losing streak. The hosts have accumulated 11 points to Zemun's solitary point this season and boast a superior expected points tally of 12.6 to 5.3. This dominance is mirrored in expected goals, with the home side generating 1.4 xG per match compared to the visitors' meager 0.65, despite both teams favoring a low defence and direct playing style.

The model's most likely outcomes, 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1, align with the expectation of a controlled performance from Novi Pazar. The hosts are expected to score 2.21 goals, while the visitors lag with an expectation of just 0.85. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 59%, reflecting Novi Pazar's attacking edge despite Zemun's defensive woes, with 2.4 xGA per match.

For bettors, Novi Pazar is clearly the more stable play. The home side's win probability and Zemun's ongoing slump highlight a likely triumph for the hosts.

Novi Pazar

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #9xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Fejsal MulićFxG 0.43 · xT 0.03
Dominic Wadi SadiRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.09
Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10

Zemun

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #11xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Nemanja BelakovićLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.21
Novak PetrusićFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Novi Pazar – Zemun

Predicted score matrix

Zemun →

Novi Pazar →

0–05.0%

0–13.7%

0–21.7%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.2%

1–19.1%

1–23.7%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.5%

2–19.7%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.5%

3–17.2%

3–23.0%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–07.8%

4+–16.6%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,21–0,85

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Novi Pazar to win65%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Novi Pazar to win65%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dominic Wadi Sadi to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Dominic Wadi Sadi to score36%
Ognjen Ilic to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

FK Zemun have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Novi Pazar

Zemun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Novi Pazar (7–8)

Zemun (3–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Novi Pazar

Zemun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Novi Pazar

Zemun

The teams in numbers

Performance	Novi Pazar	Zemun
Points	11	1
xPoints	12.6	5.3
xG per match	1.4	0.65
xGA per match	1.4	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.34

Playing style	Novi Pazar	Zemun
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.49	0.28
xT per match	0.98	0.87
xTA per match	1.2	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.16
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	12	19
Pass completion %	0.72	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.68
Passes per match	287	230
Passes against per match	299	459
Switches of play per match	28.8	14.1
Long balls per match	41	27

Set pieces	Novi Pazar	Zemun
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	3.4
Corners against per match	5.3	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.51

Other	Novi Pazar	Zemun
Throw-in control	0.64	0.63

The goalkeepers	Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar)	Mladen Živković (Zemun)
Saves	19	45
Save %	83%	74%
xG prevented	71%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Novi Pazar

Fixtures, form & tips

Zemun

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Novi Pazar vs Zemun according to our model?

The model gives Novi Pazar a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 65%, draw 21%, Zemun 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.