Serbian Super League20°16 km/h

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    Novi PazarNovi PazarLow block & direct
    2–0
    Železničar PančevoŽelezničar PančevoPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Železničar Pančevo (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · Novi Pazar @ 3.58 (+22 %)

    Novi Pazar – Železničar Pančevo · Serbian Super League

    1 · Novi Pazar 34%X 28%38% Železničar Pančevo · 2

    Analysis: Novi Pazar – Železničar Pančevo

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The betting landscape points towards a competitive clash with value on Železničar Pančevo, though no specific odds were provided in the data. With an over 2.5 goals probability standing at 56%, a high-scoring game is probable, though the model suggests a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome. A 1-2 scoreline for the visitors isn't far behind, reflecting their slight upper hand and aligning with the model's lean towards Železničar.

    Železničar Pančevo's 38% chance of winning highlights their slight edge over Novi Pazar, despite the hosts historically dominating this fixture with three wins in their last five meetings. However, this head-to-head sample is limited and weighs less than current form and expected goals. The visitors' possession-oriented play and high press could disrupt the direct and low-defense approach of Novi Pazar.

    Železničar Pančevo's tactical style shows promise here. They lead on expected goals conceded per match (1.1) compared to Pazar's 1.5, indicating a tighter defense. Their ability to generate chances swiftly after winning possession, with 0.47 xG within 8 seconds, might exploit Pazar's defensive lapses. While both teams average 1.5 xG per match, Železničar's well-structured press can tilt the scales in their favor.

    Novi PazarNovi Pazar
    Form LLWLD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #9xP/match #6Points #9
    Key players
    • Fejsal MulićLWxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
    • Ivan DavidovićCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    • Dominic Wadi SadiCAMxG 0.36 · xT 0.09
    Železničar PančevoŽelezničar Pančevo
    Form WDDLW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #10Points #7
    Key players
    • Mirko MilikićCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
    • Nikola ĐuričićLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
    • Nemanja VidojevićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Novi Pazar 34% · Draw 28% · Železničar Pančevo 38%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FK Novi PazarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,23fair 10,21+0 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FK Zeleznicar PancevoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,45fair 7,87-18 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Novi Pazar – Železničar Pančevo

    Predicted score matrix

    Železničar Pančevo →
    Novi Pazar →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–18.1%
    0–26.6%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–111.8%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.6%
    1–4+2.5%
    2
    2–05.0%
    2–17.8%
    2–26.0%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.5%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,55
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @1.97
    Over 2,556%
    @1.85EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Železničar Pančevo or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Železničar Pančevo or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • David Akpan Ankeye to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • David Akpan Ankeye to score30%
    • Mamane Moustapha Amadou Sabo to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Novi Pazar34% probability@3.58PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
    • Over 4.517% probability@7.00Paddy PowerEV+19%reference odds
    • Over 3.533% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Novi PazarX2 · Železničar Pančevo
    Betfair Exchange1.261.101.26
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    3.20    		3.302.05
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    3.20    		3.302.05
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    3.20    		3.302.05
    Paddy Power2.403.302.63
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 22%
    3.58    		3.451.90

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Železničar Pančevo win since 2 September — the odds have shortened from 2.23 to 1.90 (−15%).

    1+26 %
    34 %24 %

    2.85 → 3.58

    X+5 %
    32 %22 %

    3.28 → 3.45

    2-15 %
    48 %38 %

    2.23 → 1.90

    Over 2,5-1 %
    57 %47 %

    1.83 → 1.81

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Novi Pazar 3Draw 1Železničar Pančevo 1
    Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Novi Pazar dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Novi Pazar
    Železničar Pančevo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Novi Pazar (5–8)
    Železničar Pančevo (9–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Novi Pazar
    Jovan Marinković: 232 passningar, xT 0.66MarinkovićAhmed Hadžimujović: 209 passningar, xT 0.47HadžimujovićAleksandar Miljković: 187 passningar, xT 0.46MiljkovićTomislav Dadic: 156 passningar, xT 0.64DadicIvan Davidović: 139 passningar, xT -0.05DavidovićBogdan Matijašević: 103 passningar, xT 0.1MatijaševićKaheim Anthony Dixon: 71 passningar, xT 0.48DixonDominic Wadi Sadi: 66 passningar, xT 0.28SadiNikola Stanković: 56 passningar, xT 0.31StankovićDauda Johnson Agwom: 51 passningar, xT 0.78AgwomPapa Amady Gadio: 51 passningar, xT 0.07Gadio
    Železničar Pančevo
    Nemanja Vidojević: 410 passningar, xT 0.37VidojevićNikola Đuričić: 333 passningar, xT 0.26ĐuričićMamane Amadou Sabo: 189 passningar, xT 0.62SaboMirko Milikić: 188 passningar, xT 0.42MilikićJanko Jevremović: 176 passningar, xT 0.28JevremovićUroš Tegeltija: 150 passningar, xT 0.75TegeltijaZoran Popović: 141 passningar, xT 0.23PopovićKristian Šekularac: 139 passningar, xT -0.14ŠekularacAbdoul Rahim Sawadogu: 88 passningar, xT 0.15SawadoguSimão Ambrósio Pedro: 79 passningar, xT -0.1PedroNikola Jovanović: 54 passningar, xT 0.31Jovanović
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Novi Pazar
    Jovan Marinković: 232 passningar, xT 0.66MarinkovićAhmed Hadžimujović: 209 passningar, xT 0.47HadžimujovićAleksandar Miljković: 187 passningar, xT 0.46MiljkovićTomislav Dadic: 156 passningar, xT 0.64DadicIvan Davidović: 139 passningar, xT -0.05DavidovićBogdan Matijašević: 103 passningar, xT 0.1MatijaševićKaheim Anthony Dixon: 71 passningar, xT 0.48DixonDominic Wadi Sadi: 66 passningar, xT 0.28SadiNikola Stanković: 56 passningar, xT 0.31StankovićDauda Johnson Agwom: 51 passningar, xT 0.78AgwomPapa Amady Gadio: 51 passningar, xT 0.07Gadio
    Železničar Pančevo
    Nemanja Vidojević: 410 passningar, xT 0.37VidojevićNikola Đuričić: 333 passningar, xT 0.26ĐuričićMamane Amadou Sabo: 189 passningar, xT 0.62SaboMirko Milikić: 188 passningar, xT 0.42MilikićJanko Jevremović: 176 passningar, xT 0.28JevremovićUroš Tegeltija: 150 passningar, xT 0.75TegeltijaZoran Popović: 141 passningar, xT 0.23PopovićKristian Šekularac: 139 passningar, xT -0.14ŠekularacAbdoul Rahim Sawadogu: 88 passningar, xT 0.15SawadoguSimão Ambrósio Pedro: 79 passningar, xT -0.1PedroNikola Jovanović: 54 passningar, xT 0.31Jovanović

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNovi PazarŽelezničar Pančevo
    Points88
    xPoints10.26.6
    xG per match1.51.5
    xGA per match1.51.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.420.47
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.28
    Playing styleNovi PazarŽelezničar Pančevo
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.480.61
    xT per match0.981.2
    xTA per match1.30.68
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency0.350.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.28
    Entries into the box per match1111
    Entries into the box against129
    Pass completion %0.730.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.8
    Passes per match297436
    Passes against per match287262
    Switches of play per match30.620.8
    Long balls per match4330
    Set piecesNovi PazarŽelezničar Pančevo
    xG from free kicks0.050
    Corners per match54.8
    Corners against per match5.42.8
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.54
    OtherNovi PazarŽelezničar Pančevo
    Throw-in control0.640.73
    The goalkeepersBogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar)Zoran Popović (Železničar Pančevo)
    Saves1612
    Save %80%71%
    xG prevented68%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo according to our model?

    The model gives Železničar Pančevo a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 34%, draw 28%, Železničar Pančevo 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.