Serbian Super League18°17 km/h

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    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923Possession control
    vs
    Mladost LučaniMladost LučaniLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Radnički 1923 (60%)

    Radnički 1923 – Mladost Lučani · Serbian Super League

    1 · Radnički 1923 60%X 24%16% Mladost Lučani · 2

    Analysis: Radnički 1923 – Mladost Lučani

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Radnički 1923's recent unbeaten run of five league matches suggests momentum is on their side as they prepare to face Mladost Lučani. Despite Mladost holding a slight edge in points with 13 to Radnički’s 11, the hosts' expected goals (xG) of 1.6 per match clearly highlight their attacking potential compared to the visitors' 0.95. This paints a picture of a team capable of breaking down even the most resolute defences.

    Historically, these sides have been evenly matched with Radnički winning two of their last six encounters, and Mladost only one. This small sample slightly favours the hosts but weighs less than the current form and xG data, which heavily tips the scales towards Radnički. Mladost Lučani's style of low defence and direct play might struggle against a possession-focused Radnički side that thrives on dictating the game's tempo.

    The model probabilities assign a 60% chance for a home win, reinforcing the notion that Radnički is the team to back. The likelihood of a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts at 14% and 12% respectively is in line with their superior xG and defensive solidity, showing an expected goals against (xGA) of just 1.1 per match. With the over/under 2.5 goals line sitting at 46%, the match leans marginally towards a low-scoring affair; the likely suppression of goals further supports a narrow Radnički victory.

    Despite Mladost's points edge, the imbalance in xG metrics and Radnički's home advantage suggest that the market might be undervaluing the hosts slightly. The expectation is for a controlled, perhaps tight, Radnički win, with 1-0 being the most plausible outcome.

    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923
    Form WWWDD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #3xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Uroš SremčevićFxG 0.68 · xT -0.01
    • Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
    • Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.09
    Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani
    Form DWWLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #14xP/match #7Points #4
    Key players
    • Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.34 · xT -0.01
    • Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
    • Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Radnički 1923 – Mladost Lučani

    Predicted score matrix

    Mladost Lučani →
    Radnički 1923 →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.5%
    0–16.1%
    0–22.5%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–013.7%
    1–111.4%
    1–24.3%
    1–31.1%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–012.1%
    2–19.5%
    2–23.7%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–06.9%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–04.4%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.2-012%
    3. 3.1-111%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,72–0,79
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.75
    Over 2,546%
    @2.06

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Radnički 1923 to win60%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.37

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Radnički 1923 to win60%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Uroš Sremčević to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Uroš Sremčević to score31%
    • Dušan Jovančić to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Radnički 1923X2 · Mladost Lučani
    Bet3651.653.705.00
    Betfair Exchange1.061.101.10
    Paddy Power1.573.605.00
    Pinnacle1.563.675.42

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    61 %56 %

    1.55 → 1.56

    X-2 %
    27 %22 %

    3.73 → 3.67

    20 %
    19 %14 %

    5.43 → 5.42

    Over 2,5+3 %
    49 %44 %

    2.00 → 2.06

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Radnički 1923 2Draw 3Mladost Lučani 1
    Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 1,7)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Radnicki 1923 dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • FK Radnicki 1923 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Radnički 1923
    Mladost Lučani
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Radnički 1923 (7–6)
    Mladost Lučani (8–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Radnički 1923
    Luka Lijeskić: 173 passningar, xT 0.25LijeskićSlobodan Simović: 160 passningar, xT 0.2SimovićNikola Marjanović: 157 passningar, xT 0.18MarjanovićNemanja Glavčić: 151 passningar, xT 0.29GlavčićIlija Babić: 127 passningar, xT 0.38BabićMiloš Ristić: 123 passningar, xT 0.26RistićBojica Nikčević: 116 passningar, xT 1.16NikčevićHassan Hilo: 85 passningar, xT 0.17HiloJovan Ilic: 71 passningar, xT 0.19IlicMico Kuzmanovic: 39 passningar, xT 0.06KuzmanovicJovan Živković: 39 passningar, xT 1.27Živković
    Mladost Lučani
    Nikola Ćirković: 161 passningar, xT 0.21ĆirkovićNikola Andrić: 159 passningar, xT 0.15AndrićMilan Joksimović: 141 passningar, xT 0.35JoksimovićAleksandar Varjačić: 133 passningar, xT 1.03VarjačićDušan Jovančić: 125 passningar, xT 0.1JovančićSaša Stamenković: 109 passningar, xT 0.26StamenkovićVeljko Kijevčanin: 99 passningar, xT 0.3KijevčaninMiloš Cvetković: 85 passningar, xT 0.08CvetkovićVasil Tašovski: 83 passningar, xT 0.02TašovskiŽarko Udovičić: 62 passningar, xT 0.98UdovičićFilip Žunić: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Žunić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Radnički 1923
    Luka Lijeskić: 173 passningar, xT 0.25LijeskićSlobodan Simović: 160 passningar, xT 0.2SimovićNikola Marjanović: 157 passningar, xT 0.18MarjanovićNemanja Glavčić: 151 passningar, xT 0.29GlavčićIlija Babić: 127 passningar, xT 0.38BabićMiloš Ristić: 123 passningar, xT 0.26RistićBojica Nikčević: 116 passningar, xT 1.16NikčevićHassan Hilo: 85 passningar, xT 0.17HiloJovan Ilic: 71 passningar, xT 0.19IlicMico Kuzmanovic: 39 passningar, xT 0.06KuzmanovicJovan Živković: 39 passningar, xT 1.27Živković
    Mladost Lučani
    Nikola Ćirković: 161 passningar, xT 0.21ĆirkovićNikola Andrić: 159 passningar, xT 0.15AndrićMilan Joksimović: 141 passningar, xT 0.35JoksimovićAleksandar Varjačić: 133 passningar, xT 1.03VarjačićDušan Jovančić: 125 passningar, xT 0.1JovančićSaša Stamenković: 109 passningar, xT 0.26StamenkovićVeljko Kijevčanin: 99 passningar, xT 0.3KijevčaninMiloš Cvetković: 85 passningar, xT 0.08CvetkovićVasil Tašovski: 83 passningar, xT 0.02TašovskiŽarko Udovičić: 62 passningar, xT 0.98UdovičićFilip Žunić: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Žunić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRadnički 1923Mladost Lučani
    Points1113
    xPoints10.311.5
    xG per match1.60.95
    xGA per match1.11.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.08
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.17
    Playing styleRadnički 1923Mladost Lučani
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.590.26
    xT per match1.40.75
    xTA per match0.961.4
    Won balls, offensive half2419
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.390.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.18
    Entries into the box per match1610
    Entries into the box against1316
    Pass completion %0.730.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.63
    Passes per match315248
    Passes against per match210432
    Switches of play per match22.911.8
    Long balls per match2625
    Set piecesRadnički 1923Mladost Lučani
    xG from free kicks0.080.06
    Corners per match73
    Corners against per match4.35.6
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.550.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.66
    OtherRadnički 1923Mladost Lučani
    Throw-in control0.670.64
    The goalkeepersLuka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923)Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)
    Saves2238
    Save %79%86%
    xG prevented58%86%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Radnički 1923
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mladost Lučani
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Radnički 1923 vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?

    The model gives Radnički 1923 a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički 1923 60%, draw 24%, Mladost Lučani 16%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
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    1 60%X 21%2 19%
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.