01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serbian Super LeagueStadion Čair, Niš27°0,2 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Radnički NišPossession control1–1
Radnički 1923Possession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Radnički Niš (36%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.80 (+3 %)
Radnički Niš – Radnički 1923 · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički Niš 36%X 30%34% Radnički 1923 · 2
36%
30%
34%
Analysis: Radnički Niš – Radnički 1923
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Radnički Niš enter this matchup with a model probability of 36% to win, slightly edging the visitors at 34%. The numbers suggest a razor-thin margin between the sides, but the hosts get the nod from the model. A likely scoreline sits at 1-1 with a 13% chance, highlighting the balanced nature of their expected output: 1.34 xG for Niš against 1.29 for Radnički 1923. Both teams are expected to control possession, which could lead to cautious play and limited goal-scoring opportunities.
However, Radnički 1923 have dominated recent encounters, winning three of the last five, albeit from a small sample. Their current form is strong, with three consecutive victories coming into this match, reinforcing their edge in xG per match at 1.7 versus Niš's 1.3. Though Niš have a slight advantage in xGA per match (1.1 vs 1.2), their total points and xPoints trail behind. The draw seems a plausible outcome given these dynamics, but the visitors might have a psychological edge.
The over/under rests around even money at 49%, suggesting caution. The draw at 30% presents an appealing angle for value hunters, especially in light of the tightly contested nature predicted by the data. Expect a tightly managed 1-1 draw as both teams cling to possession.
Radnički NišForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #4xP/match #12Points #13
Key players
- Issah AbassLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.32
- Radomir MilosavljevićCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
- Ranko JokićCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.18
Radnički 1923Form LLWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #3xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.16 · xT 0.15
- Miloš RistićCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Radnički Niš 36% · Draw 30% · Radnički 1923 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Radnicki 1923Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,67fair 11,58-16 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Radnicki NisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,36fair 10,64-21 %
MissMatch prediction: Radnički Niš – Radnički 1923
Predicted score matrix
Radnički 1923 →
Radnički Niš →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–18.9%
0–26.0%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–09.3%
1–112.8%
1–28.0%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.5%
2–18.4%
2–25.4%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.7%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,34–1,29
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.75
Over 2,549%
@2.10EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Radnički Niš or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Miloš Spasić to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Miloš Spasić to score28%
- Vanja Tomić to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.527% probability@3.80Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
- Over 2.549% probability@2.10Bet365EV+3%reference odds
- Over 3.527% probability@3.75Bet365EV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnički Niš | X | 2 · Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Betfair Exchange | 2.60 | EV+ 0% 3.40 | EV+ 1% 2.92 |
| Betsafe | 2.40 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
| Betsson | 2.40 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.40 | 3.05 | 2.80 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:24
Odds movement
1-5 %
40 %35 %
2.52 → 2.40
X-3 %
32 %27 %
3.15 → 3.05
2+10 %
36 %31 %
2.55 → 2.80
Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesRadnički Niš 1Draw 1Radnički 1923 3
Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Radnicki 1923 dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- FK Radnicki 1923 come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički Niš
Radnički 1923
Radnički Niš (2–5)
Radnički 1923 (6–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
Radnički 1923
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
Radnički 1923
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički Niš | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 9 |
| xPoints | 5.7 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Radnički Niš | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.67 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 313 |
| Passes against per match | 224 | 223 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.7 | 22.8 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Radnički Niš | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 7.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.5 |
| Other | Radnički Niš | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš) | Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 16 |
| Save % | 91% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 97% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički Niš vs Radnički 1923 according to our model?
The model gives Radnički Niš a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički Niš 36%, draw 30%, Radnički 1923 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.