Serbian Super League

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    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik SurdulicaPossession & high press
    3–1
    ČukaričkiČukaričkiLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Radnik Surdulica (52%)

    Radnik Surdulica – Čukarički · Serbian Super League

    1 · Radnik Surdulica 52%X 26%22% Čukarički · 2

    Analysis: Radnik Surdulica – Čukarički

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The betting angle sharpens with value on Radnik at odds of 2.1 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating them as 52% likely to win, this presents an 8% edge. For those looking to align the numbers with potential profit, backing the hosts at these odds could be worthwhile. Expect a potentially tight 1-0 scoreline favoring Radnik Surdulica, fitting the cautious under 2.5 goals narrative.

    Radnik Surdulica stands as the slight favorite with the model assigning them a 52% likelihood of winning against Čukarički's 22%. This clash, pivoting on contrasting styles—Radnik's possession and high press against Čukarički's low block and direct approach—leans towards the hosts. Historical head-to-head data, though sparse with only three matches, indicates Radnik's upper hand with one win and two draws. However, the limited past encounters should weigh less than current form and expected goals.

    The visitors may have a slight edge in points and xPoints, leading 10 to 8 and 10.2 to 8.5, respectively, but Radnik's defensive numbers suggest resilience. With an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.4 compared to Čukarički's 1.6, Surdulica appears slightly more robust at the back. Offensively, both teams mirror each other in xG, registering 1.2 per match, but the model's expected goals still favor Radnik, predicting them to net 1.63 against Čukarički's 0.91.

    Both teams scoring has a 48% probability, yet the model eyes a tight contest. The most probable scorelines—1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), and 2-0 (10%)—reflect a likely narrow victory for the home side or a low-scoring draw, aligning with the over 2.5 goals leaning at 47%.

    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica
    Form DLWWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #7xP/match #7Points #8
    Key players
    • Miloš PopovićFxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
    • Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.58 · xT 0.05
    • Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.48
    ČukaričkiČukarički
    Form WDWLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #12xP/match #5Points #6
    Key players
    • Veljko RadosavljevićFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
    • Marko DocićCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
    • Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.43 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 52% · Draw 26% · Čukarički 22%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FK Radnik SurdulicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,56fair 8,12-7 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - CukarickiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,81fair 25,34-53 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Radnik Surdulica – Čukarički

    Predicted score matrix

    Čukarički →
    Radnik Surdulica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.3%
    0–16.9%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.5%
    1–112.1%
    1–25.3%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.7%
    3–15.2%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.3%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,63–0,91
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,553%
    @1.80
    Over 2,547%
    @2.01

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Radnik Surdulica to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.62

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Radnik Surdulica to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Vukašin Bogdanović to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Vukašin Bogdanović to score28%
    • Ismael Alves Gaetan Maiga to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Radnik Surdulica52% probability@2.30Bet365EV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Radnik Surdulica52% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Radnik Surdulica52% probability@2.10BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Radnik SurdulicaX2 · Čukarički
    Bet365
    EV+ 19%
    2.30    		3.303.00
    Betfair Exchange1.171.131.17
    Betsafe
    EV+ 8%
    2.10    		3.153.25
    Betsson
    EV+ 8%
    2.10    		3.153.25
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 8%
    2.10    		3.153.25
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    2.13    		3.173.21

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 18:31

    Odds movement

    1-6 %
    44 %39 %

    2.26 → 2.13

    X+1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.15 → 3.17

    2+7 %
    32 %27 %

    2.99 → 3.21

    Over 2,5+1 %
    49 %44 %

    2.00 → 2.01

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Radnik Surdulica 1Draw 2Čukarički 0
    Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 3,3)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Radnik Surdulica
    Čukarički
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Radnik Surdulica (6–9)
    Čukarički (9–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 161 passningar, xT 0.38StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 127 passningar, xT 0.17AbubakarMiloš Popović: 126 passningar, xT 0.15PopovićAleksandar Pejović: 119 passningar, xT 1.25PejovićStefan Ranđelović: 106 passningar, xT 0.06RanđelovićUroš Lazić: 96 passningar, xT 0.17LazićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 96 passningar, xT 0.27DrammehMartin Novaković: 73 passningar, xT 0NovakovićMateja Gašić: 54 passningar, xT 0.43GašićVukašin Bogdanović: 49 passningar, xT -0.16BogdanovićLuka Zorić: 44 passningar, xT 0.15Zorić
    Čukarički
    Ismael Maiga: 172 passningar, xT 0.16MaigaSambou Sissoko: 118 passningar, xT 0.31SissokoMarko Docić: 114 passningar, xT 0.12DocićNemanja Miletić: 104 passningar, xT 0.2MiletićZlatan Šehović: 89 passningar, xT 0.15ŠehovićVladan Carapic: 78 passningar, xT 0.03CarapicUroš Miladinović: 74 passningar, xT 0.53MiladinovićMilan Djokovic: 56 passningar, xT 0.49DjokovicĐorđe Nikolić: 41 passningar, xT 0.11NikolićNenad Tomovic: 32 passningar, xT 0.08TomovicAboubacar Cissé: 32 passningar, xT 0Cissé
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 161 passningar, xT 0.38StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 127 passningar, xT 0.17AbubakarMiloš Popović: 126 passningar, xT 0.15PopovićAleksandar Pejović: 119 passningar, xT 1.25PejovićStefan Ranđelović: 106 passningar, xT 0.06RanđelovićUroš Lazić: 96 passningar, xT 0.17LazićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 96 passningar, xT 0.27DrammehMartin Novaković: 73 passningar, xT 0NovakovićMateja Gašić: 54 passningar, xT 0.43GašićVukašin Bogdanović: 49 passningar, xT -0.16BogdanovićLuka Zorić: 44 passningar, xT 0.15Zorić
    Čukarički
    Ismael Maiga: 172 passningar, xT 0.16MaigaSambou Sissoko: 118 passningar, xT 0.31SissokoMarko Docić: 114 passningar, xT 0.12DocićNemanja Miletić: 104 passningar, xT 0.2MiletićZlatan Šehović: 89 passningar, xT 0.15ŠehovićVladan Carapic: 78 passningar, xT 0.03CarapicUroš Miladinović: 74 passningar, xT 0.53MiladinovićMilan Djokovic: 56 passningar, xT 0.49DjokovicĐorđe Nikolić: 41 passningar, xT 0.11NikolićNenad Tomovic: 32 passningar, xT 0.08TomovicAboubacar Cissé: 32 passningar, xT 0Cissé

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRadnik SurdulicaČukarički
    Points810
    xPoints8.510.2
    xG per match1.21.2
    xGA per match1.41.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.4
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.430.35
    Playing styleRadnik SurdulicaČukarički
    Build-up efficiency0.280.3
    Field tilt0.520.35
    xT per match1.10.81
    xTA per match1.31.6
    Won balls, offensive half2526
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.320.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.22
    Entries into the box per match1311
    Entries into the box against1216
    Pass completion %0.710.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.63
    Passes per match287232
    Passes against per match310378
    Switches of play per match16.417.2
    Long balls per match2527
    Set piecesRadnik SurdulicaČukarički
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match4.24
    Corners against per match55.9
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.36
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.37
    OtherRadnik SurdulicaČukarički
    Throw-in control0.750.61
    The goalkeepersStefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica)Đorđe Nikolić (Čukarički)
    Saves2317
    Save %72%85%
    xG prevented33%84%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Radnik Surdulica
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Čukarički
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Radnik Surdulica vs Čukarički according to our model?

    The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnik Surdulica 52%, draw 26%, Čukarički 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.