01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serbian Super League
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Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high press1–0
Novi PazarLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Radnik Surdulica (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Novi Pazar @ 3.80 (+24 %)
Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnik Surdulica 37%X 30%33% Novi Pazar · 2
37%
30%
33%
Analysis: Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
A razor-thin divide characterizes Radnik Surdulica's clash with Novi Pazar, with model probabilities slightly favoring the hosts at 37%. Yet, this is a match where the numbers tell a more complex story. Both teams' expected goals hover around 1.3, suggesting a balanced affair despite Radnik's high pressing against Novi Pazar's defensive stance. The expected goals against further complicate the picture: Radnik concedes far less, at 0.82, compared to Novi Pazar’s leaky 1.7.
The head-to-head record since 2023, although tightly contested, skews slightly toward the visitors with three wins out of six. But given the small sample size, it is less predictive than current form and statistical expectations. Despite Novi Pazar’s narrow points advantage so far, Radnik's home form and tactical approach could disrupt their rhythm, indicating a possible home edge.
Where the numbers truly pop is in the betting value. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.8 for an away win, and the model giving a 33% probability, there's a significant 24% edge. This doesn't guarantee an away win, but it highlights a potentially rewarding risk for those seeking value in the odds.
The goal projection leans towards a 1-1 draw at 13%, but with such evenly matched teams, a 1-0 either way remains plausible. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits almost evenly at 49%, making it a coin toss, though the playing styles suggest a cautious expectation of under 2.5.
Close margins dictate this encounter, but the real potential lies in the away win value. With calculated risk, punters might find that backing Novi Pazar at the right odds offers the sharpest angle in this finely poised matchup.
Radnik SurdulicaForm LDDLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #4xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Miloš PopovićFxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
- Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.65 · xT 0.06
- Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.72
Novi PazarForm WDLLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #11xT #13xP/match #6Points #6
Key players
- Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
- Dominic Wadi SadiCAMxG 0.35 · xT 0.02
- Vieiri KotzebueFxG 0.32 · xT 0.08
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Radnik Surdulica 37% · Draw 30% · Novi Pazar 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Novi PazarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,60fair 10,50+39 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Radnik SurdulicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,09fair 11,77-40 %
MissMatch prediction: Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar
Predicted score matrix
Novi Pazar →
Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–19.4%
0–26.6%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–08.8%
1–112.8%
1–28.4%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.4%
3–22.3%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,28–1,35
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.80
Over 2,549%
@2.02
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)62%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Lazar Stojanovic to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Lazar Stojanovic to score22%
- Skima Kobinah Togbe to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80BetssonEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnik Surdulica | X | 2 · Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | 3.25 | EV+ 24% 3.80 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | 3.25 | EV+ 24% 3.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | 3.25 | EV+ 24% 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | EV+ 0% 3.31 | EV+ 21% 3.71 |
Odds updated 23 Aug, 05:10
Odds movement
1+2 %
50 %45 %
1.88 → 1.91
X+1 %
30 %25 %
3.27 → 3.31
2-4 %
27 %22 %
3.88 → 3.71
Over 2,5-3 %
49 %44 %
2.04 → 1.98
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 23/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesRadnik Surdulica 2Draw 1Novi Pazar 3
Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
Radnik Surdulica (4–4)
Novi Pazar (4–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 7 |
| xPoints | 6.6 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.82 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.52 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 299 | 262 |
| Passes against per match | 250 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 26.6 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| Other | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) | Miloje Preković (Novi Pazar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 12 |
| Save % | 77% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar according to our model?
The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnik Surdulica 37%, draw 30%, Novi Pazar 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.