Vojvodina vs Zemun: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League6 September 2026 21:00 CESTKarađorđe-stadion, Novi Sad23°3,3 mm18 km/h

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VojvodinaPossession control

2–1

ZemunLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Vojvodina (78%)Best value by the model: 2 · Zemun @ 17.00 (+35 %)

1 · Vojvodina 78%X 14%8% Zemun · 2

78%

14%

Analysis: Vojvodina – Zemun

Erik Lindberg · 4 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: 78% is a commanding probability in football, and it sets the stage for Vojvodina's clash with Zemun in the Serbian Super League. The home team is heavily favored to control both possession and the scoreboard, largely due to their contrasting styles of play and current form. Vojvodina’s strategy revolves around possession control, a perfect match against Zemun’s low defense and direct approach, which has clearly faltered given their six-game losing streak.

Numbers and form align decisively for the hosts. With 15 points against Zemun's solitary point, and an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.9 per match compared to Zemun’s meager 0.65, Vojvodina is expected to dominate this fixture. Even the expected goals against (xGA) favor the home side, with 1.4 versus Zemun’s worrying 2.3. The model sees Vojvodina’s defense keeping Zemun at bay, while their attacking prowess has the potential to exploit the visitors' porous back line.

Although the over 2.5 goals market leans strongly at 65%, the most likely scorelines suggest otherwise, hinting at a controlled yet effective display from the hosts, with 2-0 and 3-0 appearing as the standout predictions. Zemun’s chances of finding the net are slim, implied by a mere 43% probability for both teams scoring. A 2-0 scoreline seems well within reach if Vojvodina can maintain their defensive solidity.

For those eyeing value, it's hard to ignore Vojvodina’s 78% probability, which offers a sensible, well-underpinned angle to meet the weekend’s betting expectations. This matchup has all the hallmarks of a calculated Vojvodina victory, with disciplined play paying dividends.

Vojvodina

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #9xT #2xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Nardin MulahusejnovicFxG 0.78 · xT 0.03
Dragan KokanovićRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
Lazar RanđelovićRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.28

Zemun

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #11xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Nemanja BelakovićRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Uroš LjubomiracFxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vojvodina 78% · Draw 14% · Zemun 8%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VojvodinaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,04fair 4,41-31 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FK ZemunBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 32,01fair 90,99-65 %

Miss

Match prediction: Vojvodina – Zemun

Predicted score matrix

Zemun →

Vojvodina →

0–03.8%

0–12.0%

0–20.7%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–09.6%

1–16.1%

1–21.8%

1–30.4%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.3%

2–18.1%

2–22.5%

2–30.5%

2–4+0.1%

3–012.0%

3–17.3%

3–22.2%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–015.7%

4+–19.6%

4+–22.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.3-012%
3.1-010%
4.4-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

2,72–0,61

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@3.00EV+6%

Over 2,565%

@1.60EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vojvodina to win78%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vojvodina to win78%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Nardin Mulahusejnovic to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Nardin Mulahusejnovic to score34%
Ognjen Ilic to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Zemun8% probability@17.00Bet365EV+35%reference odds
2 · Zemun8% probability@17.00Paddy PowerEV+35%reference odds
Both teams to score: Yes43% probability@2.75Bet365EV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vojvodina	X	2 · Zemun
Bet365	1.14	EV+ 1% 7.00	EV+ 35% 17.00
Betsafe	1.16	6.40	10.50
Betsson	1.16	6.40	10.50
Nordicbet	1.16	6.40	10.50
Paddy Power	1.10	EV+ 8% 7.50	EV+ 35% 17.00
Pinnacle	1.15	EV+ 2% 7.07	11.30

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

81 %76 %

1.18 → 1.15

X+8 %

16 %11 %

6.53 → 7.07

2+10 %

11 %6 %

10.27 → 11.30

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FK Zemun have lost 6 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vojvodina

Zemun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vojvodina (15–6)

Zemun (2–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Zemun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Zemun

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vojvodina	Zemun
Points	15	1
xPoints	10.8	4.7
xG per match	1.9	0.65
xGA per match	1.4	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.6	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.57	0.16

Playing style	Vojvodina	Zemun
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.59	0.29
xT per match	1.4	0.92
xTA per match	0.79	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	28	22
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.16
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	10	19
Pass completion %	0.73	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.69
Passes per match	295	238
Passes against per match	278	453
Switches of play per match	20.4	14.7
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Vojvodina	Zemun
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	3.4
Corners against per match	4.7	5.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.53

Other	Vojvodina	Zemun
Throw-in control	0.64	0.64

The goalkeepers	Dragan Rosić (Vojvodina)	Mladen Živković (Zemun)
Saves	28	38
Save %	82%	73%
xG prevented	56%	64%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vojvodina vs Zemun according to our model?

The model gives Vojvodina a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vojvodina 78%, draw 14%, Zemun 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.