OFK Beograd vs Radnički 1923: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League19 September 202620°0,3 mm9 km/h

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OFK BeogradPossession control

Radnički 1923Possession control

The model's lean: 1 · OFK Beograd (36%)Soft draw

1 · OFK Beograd 36%X 30%34% Radnički 1923 · 2

36%

30%

34%

Analysis: OFK Beograd – Radnički 1923

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between OFK Beograd and Radnički 1923 reveals an even split: 2 wins each and one draw over their last five meetings. Though intriguing, this small sample size provides limited insight, especially given Radnički's unbeaten streak in their last five league outings. The hosts will be wary of Radnički's momentum, as the visitors boast a slightly better league position and underlying numbers.

Form indicators lean toward Radnički, with a perceptible edge in both xPoints and xG metrics. Their xG per match stands at 1.6 compared to OFK Beograd's 0.99, reflecting a more potent attacking threat. In contrast, the hosts struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 xGA per match. This inefficiency in defense could tip the scales in a tightly contested matchup.

Despite OFK Beograd's model-backed edge, at 36% win probability versus Radnički's 34%, the expected goals align the teams almost identically at 1.19 to 1.20. However, with both sides focusing on possession control, space creation may be limited, suggesting a match that could see more midfield tussles than goal-mouth action. The model's most likely scoreline sits at 1-1, a scenario that aligns with Radnički's ability to stay unbeaten recently.

The betting landscape offers a compelling angle: a draw offers a decent return given the model's 30% probability. However, the value play might lie in Radnički's ability to capitalize on their form. Bet365 lists Radnički to win at odds of 2.90, representing value for those who trust in their recent unbeaten streak. With under 2.5 goals sitting at 57%, a low-scoring draw or a narrow Radnički win looks the sharpest angle.

OFK Beograd

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #13xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Ethan HoardFxG 0.24 · xT -0.01
Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.40 · xT 0.05
Miljan MomčilovićCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Radnički 1923

Form WWWDD

League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #3xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Uroš SremčevićFxG 0.68 · xT -0.01
Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: OFK Beograd – Radnički 1923

Predicted score matrix

Radnički 1923 →

OFK Beograd →

0–09.6%

0–110.7%

0–26.6%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.6%

1–113.5%

1–27.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.5%

2–17.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.6%

3–13.1%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-011%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,19–1,20

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

–

Over 2,543%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (1X)64%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score24%
Miloš Ristić to be booked26%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

OFK Beograd 2Draw 1Radnički 1923 2

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
FK Radnicki 1923 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

OFK Beograd

Radnički 1923

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

OFK Beograd (9–13)

Radnički 1923 (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

OFK Beograd

Radnički 1923

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

OFK Beograd

Radnički 1923

The teams in numbers

Performance	OFK Beograd	Radnički 1923
Points	9	11
xPoints	8.1	10.3
xG per match	0.99	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.27

Playing style	OFK Beograd	Radnički 1923
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.59
xT per match	0.84	1.4
xTA per match	0.89	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.34
Entries into the box per match	9	16
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.67
Passes per match	318	315
Passes against per match	264	210
Switches of play per match	16.2	22.9
Long balls per match	26	26

Set pieces	OFK Beograd	Radnički 1923
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.08
Corners per match	3.1	7
Corners against per match	3.9	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.87	0.53

Other	OFK Beograd	Radnički 1923
Throw-in control	0.69	0.67

The goalkeepers	Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd)	Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923)
Saves	16	22
Save %	64%	79%
xG prevented	38%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

OFK Beograd

Fixtures, form & tips

Radnički 1923

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins OFK Beograd vs Radnički 1923 according to our model?

The model gives OFK Beograd a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFK Beograd 36%, draw 30%, Radnički 1923 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.