OFK Beograd vs Zemun: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League22 August 2026 21:00 CEST30°0,6 mm10 km/h

OFK BeogradPossession control

ZemunLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · OFK Beograd (64%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.05 (+17 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · OFK Beograd 64%X 20%15% Zemun · 2

64%

20%

15%

Analysis: OFK Beograd – Zemun

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The number 64% stands out as a testament to OFK Beograd's chances in their clash against FK Zemun. This model casts a confident glance toward OFK Beograd, whose possession-based approach is set to dictate the game's rhythm, especially against a Zemun side mired in a four-match losing streak. The expected goals further highlight this disparity: OFK Beograd at 2.28 compared to Zemun's meager 0.85 suggests a one-sided narrative, reinforced by the probabilities of a 2-0 or 1-0 scoreline hovering around 10-11%.

OFK Beograd's ability to maintain control is matched by their defensive solidity, relative to Zemun's vulnerability. With xGA per match figures of 1.4 for Beograd and a dismal 2.4 for Zemun, the hosts’ defensive edge could well be pivotal. This is not merely form, but a consistent pattern of dominance that points toward a likely victory for OFK Beograd. Zemun's low-defence stance has been exposed repeatedly, leading to their current form slump.

FK Zemun have been struggling mightily with just a single point to their name, and their direct style may flounder against a disciplined OFK Beograd side. The small sample size of recent head-to-heads might not be the most reliable, but when combined with the current form and expected goals, the writing is on the wall for Zemun. Weather doesn’t feature in this analysis, so the odds remain a pure reflection of form and style.

The sharpest angle here lies in the EV+ proposition for over 3.5 goals, available at odds of 2.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Though the model rates this at 38%, providing a 5% edge, it demands consideration, especially given the potential for OFK Beograd to exploit every chink in Zemun’s armour. With a 61% lean on over 2.5 goals, should Beograd hit their stride, this could very well be the value bet to capitalise on.

OFK Beograd

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #12xP/match #13Points #9

Key players

Ethan HoardFxG 0.07 · xT -0.01
Aleksa CvetkovićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06

Zemun

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #9xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
Godswill VadzeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Nemanja BelakovićRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: OFK Beograd – Zemun

Predicted score matrix

Zemun →

OFK Beograd →

0–04.6%

0–13.5%

0–21.6%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.7%

1–18.7%

1–23.6%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.4%

2–19.7%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.6%

3–17.3%

3–23.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–08.4%

4+–17.2%

4+–23.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-09%

Expected goals

2,28–0,85

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@1.85

Over 2,561%

@1.85EV+12%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

OFK Beograd to win64%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

OFK Beograd to win64%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score40%
Vasilije Bakić to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.538% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Over 3.538% probability@3.05BetssonEV+17%reference odds
Over 3.538% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · OFK Beograd	X	2 · Zemun
Betsafe	1.52	3.80	5.30
Betsson	1.52	3.80	5.30
Nordicbet	1.52	3.80	5.30

Odds updated 17 Aug, 20:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.00 to 1.85 (−7%).

10 %

62 %57 %

1.52 → 1.52

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.80 → 3.80

20 %

20 %15 %

5.30 → 5.30

Over 2,5+8 %

54 %49 %

1.72 → 1.85

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FK Zemun have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

OFK Beograd

Zemun

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

OFK Beograd (6–9)

Zemun (2–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

OFK Beograd

Zemun

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

OFK Beograd

Zemun

The teams in numbers

Performance	OFK Beograd	Zemun
Points	5	1
xPoints	4.7	3.4
xG per match	0.92	0.71
xGA per match	1.4	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.16

Playing style	OFK Beograd	Zemun
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.35
xT per match	0.78	0.94
xTA per match	0.79	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	26	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.18
Entries into the box per match	8	10
Entries into the box against	9	18
Pass completion %	0.74	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	319	252
Passes against per match	257	434
Switches of play per match	17.6	14.6
Long balls per match	27	27

Set pieces	OFK Beograd	Zemun
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	4	3.4
Corners against per match	3.6	6.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.83	0.61

Other	OFK Beograd	Zemun
Throw-in control	0.67	0.62

The goalkeepers	Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd)	Mladen Živković (Zemun)
Saves	9	26
Save %	64%	70%
xG prevented	28%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins OFK Beograd vs Zemun according to our model?

The model gives OFK Beograd a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFK Beograd 64%, draw 20%, Zemun 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.