Red Star Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League6 September 2026Rajko Mitić-stadion, Belgrad25°0,1 mm17 km/h

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Red Star BelgradePossession & high press

2–1

Partizan BelgradePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Red Star Belgrade (62%)

1 · Red Star Belgrade 62%X 21%16% Partizan Belgrade · 2

62%

21%

16%

Analysis: Red Star Belgrade – Partizan Belgrade

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Red Star Belgrade's attacking prowess is clear, scoring an impressive 3.0 expected goals per match. This high-octane approach pairs well with their formidable home record, winning 83% of their matches in front of their fans. The hosts' current form is relentless, boasting five consecutive victories, and they easily won five of the last six meetings with their bitter rivals. This recent streak, alongside their superior xG of 2.37 for the upcoming clash, makes them overwhelming favorites.

On the other side, Partizan Belgrade enters this encounter as the underdog with only a 16% chance of winning, according to the model. Their possession and high-press tactics mirror Red Star's, but they've struggled to consistently convert this into results. Averaging just 1.02 expected goals in this matchup highlights their uphill struggle. While both teams tend to score, reflected in the 58% probability for both teams to find the net, Partizan's defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by Red Star's relentless attack.

Given the history, the average of 3.7 goals per meeting suggests a high-scoring affair, further supported by a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals. However, Red Star's dominance in this fixture, combined with their solid defensive record of 0.71 xGA per match, tilts the likelihood towards a home victory with a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline as the most probable.

With Red Star's offensive efficiency and Partizan's struggles, the hosts winning with a few goals on the board seems the most logical outcome.

Red Star Belgrade

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.92 · xT 0.26
Mirko IvanićLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.15
Vasilije KostovRWxG 1.06 · xT -0.06

Partizan Belgrade

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Aleks ZekovićCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
Zubairu IbrahimLWxG 0.28 · xT -0.06
Samson NwuluLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.21

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Red Star Belgrade 62% · Draw 21% · Partizan Belgrade 16%

Match prediction: Red Star Belgrade – Partizan Belgrade

Predicted score matrix

Partizan Belgrade →

Red Star Belgrade →

0–03.6%

0–13.2%

0–21.7%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.8%

1–18.4%

1–24.1%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–09.5%

2–19.7%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–07.5%

3–17.6%

3–23.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–07.8%

4+–17.9%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.1-08%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,37–1,02

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

–

Over 2,566%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Star Belgrade to win62%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Star Belgrade to win62%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Loizos Loizou to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Loizos Loizou to score40%
Ognjen Ugrešić to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Red Star Belgrade 5Draw 1Partizan Belgrade 0

Goals: 17–5 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Red Star Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.
Red Star Belgrade come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Red Star Belgrade win 83% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Red Star Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Red Star Belgrade (16–1)

Partizan Belgrade (10–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Partizan Belgrade

The teams in numbers

Performance	Red Star Belgrade	Partizan Belgrade
Points	15	7
xPoints	11.2	8.9
xG per match	3	1.6
xGA per match	0.71	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.15

Playing style	Red Star Belgrade	Partizan Belgrade
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.73	0.74
xT per match	2	1.3
xTA per match	0.71	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	28	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.34
Entries into the box per match	22	17
Entries into the box against	9	9
Pass completion %	0.83	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	492	424
Passes against per match	283	215
Switches of play per match	41.9	37.4
Long balls per match	47	52

Set pieces	Red Star Belgrade	Partizan Belgrade
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	5.3	5.4
Corners against per match	2.6	2.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.69	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.6

Other	Red Star Belgrade	Partizan Belgrade
Throw-in control	0.9	0.7

The goalkeepers	Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade)	Miloš Krunić (Partizan Belgrade)
Saves	13	11
Save %	93%	61%
xG prevented	80%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Red Star Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Partizan Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Red Star Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade according to our model?

The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star Belgrade 62%, draw 21%, Partizan Belgrade 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.