01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Železničar Pančevo to win50%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Serbian Super League26°27 km/h
Läs på svenska
Železničar PančevoPossession control5–1
Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Železničar Pančevo (50%)
Železničar Pančevo – Radnik Surdulica · Serbian Super League
1 · Železničar Pančevo 50%X 28%22% Radnik Surdulica · 2
50%
28%
22%
Analysis: Železničar Pančevo – Radnik Surdulica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Železničar Pančevo enters this clash as the model's preferred side with a 50% win probability, despite sitting behind Radnik Surdulica in both points and xPoints. The hosts have shown their defensive mettle in head-to-head encounters, remaining unbeaten in three meetings since 2023, albeit from a small sample size that weighs less than their current form and expected goals.
Železničar's possession control should frustrate Radnik's high press, with expected goals favoring a low-scoring affair. The odds imply a 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, supported by an expected goals tally of just 1.54 to 0.94. These numbers suggest a tight match, with 1-0 to the hosts being the most likely outcome at 13%. The visitors might look livelier on paper with better xG and xGA stats, but converting these into points seems their challenge.
From a betting perspective, the value lies squarely with the home team. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.15 for a Železničar win, which is an 8% edge given the model's 50% win probability. While hardly a thrilling prospect, a well-grounded bet on the hosts could indeed pay the bills here.
Železničar PančevoForm DWDDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #12xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Nikola ĐuričićLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
- Nemanja VidojevićCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Nikola JovanovićRWxG 0.20 · xT -0.01
Radnik SurdulicaForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #6xP/match #2Points #7
Key players
- Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.65 · xT 0.06
- Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.48
- Darko StojanovićCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
Final score
5 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Železničar Pančevo 50% · Draw 28% · Radnik Surdulica 22%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Zeleznicar PancevoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,75fair 8,94-13 %
HitMatchresultat - FK Radnik SurdulicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,26fair 23,34-47 %
MissMatch prediction: Železničar Pančevo – Radnik Surdulica
Predicted score matrix
Radnik Surdulica →
Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–17.6%
0–23.7%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.5%
1–112.5%
1–25.7%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.3%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.1%
3–14.8%
3–22.2%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,54–0,94
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.72
Over 2,545%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Železničar Pančevo to win50%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Branislav Knežević to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Branislav Knežević to score30%
- Miloš Popović to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Železničar Pančevo50% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Železničar Pančevo50% probability@2.08BetssonEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Železničar Pančevo50% probability@2.08NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Železničar Pančevo | X | 2 · Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.19 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 2.08 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Betsson | EV+ 4% 2.08 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 2.08 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.01 | 3.12 | 3.59 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:24
Odds movement
1-6 %
47 %42 %
2.13 → 2.01
X+1 %
32 %27 %
3.09 → 3.12
2+9 %
29 %24 %
3.30 → 3.59
Over 2,5-3 %
47 %42 %
2.11 → 2.05
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesŽelezničar Pančevo 2Draw 1Radnik Surdulica 0
Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
Železničar Pančevo (4–4)
Radnik Surdulica (5–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Železničar Pančevo | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 8 |
| xPoints | 3.7 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.84 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Železničar Pančevo | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.83 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.71 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 417 | 289 |
| Passes against per match | 259 | 270 |
| Switches of play per match | 21 | 15.6 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Železničar Pančevo | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.71 |
| Other | Železničar Pančevo | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Zoran Popović (Železničar Pančevo) | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 18 |
| Save % | 73% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 75% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Železničar Pančevo vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?
The model gives Železničar Pančevo a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Železničar Pančevo 50%, draw 28%, Radnik Surdulica 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.