01 · 2 legs
Safe
- DAC to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Slovak Super LeagueMOL Aréna, Dunajská Streda21°22 km/h
Läs på svenska
DACPossession control5–0
PodbrezováPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · DAC (57%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.19 (+3 %)
DAC – Podbrezová · Slovak Super League
1 · DAC 57%X 24%18% Podbrezová · 2
57%
24%
18%
Analysis: DAC – Podbrezová
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Six wins in nine meetings set the stage for DAC's historical dominance over Podbrezová, yet the current form paints a more nuanced picture. While the home side holds a slight edge in the model with a 57% probability of winning, Podbrezová's season form suggests they're not to be easily overlooked. The visitors lead DAC in points, 9 to 7, and also boast superior expected points and xG per match. This clash between historical precedent and current form is where the match's tension lies.
DAC's familiar territory of home dominance is a factor here. Winning 60% of their home matches in their history is a testament to their fortress-like presence at home. Despite this, their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3 per match suggests vulnerability, especially against a Podbrezová side that not only presses high but also showcases an impressive xG of 2.5 per match. The visitors' ability to create chances could test DAC's defensive mettle on the night.
The model leans towards a 2-1 victory for DAC, a scoreline that aligns with the fact that both teams are predicted to score, standing at 59%. Over 2.5 goals, coming in at 62%, suggests a potentially open game, one where the high press of Podbrezová meets the possession control of DAC head-on. The intricacies of playing styles could lead to moments of vulnerability on both sides, enhancing the likelihood of goals.
From a betting perspective, there’s value in backing DAC with Bet365 offering 1.75 odds for a home win. Their historical superiority and possession style may just outmaneuver Podbrezová's current form. While a close match is expected, DAC’s home advantage and tactical setup could be the deciding factors in this intriguing encounter.
DACForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #6xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Giorgi GaguaFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
- Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.51 · xT 0.14
- Zan TronteljRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
PodbrezováForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #2xP/match #2Points #3
Key players
- Peter KováčikRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.47
- Radek SilerFxG 0.81 · xT 0.13
- Karlo MiljanicRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.15
Final score
5 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: DAC 57% · Draw 24% · Podbrezová 18%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DAC Dunajská StredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,36fair 4,68-7 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Zeleziarne PodbrezovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,82fair 17,32-43 %
MissMatch prediction: DAC – Podbrezová
Predicted score matrix
Podbrezová →
DAC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–14.1%
0–22.4%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.2%
1–19.6%
1–25.2%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.3%
3–17.0%
3–23.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.4%
4+–16.0%
4+–23.3%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,12–1,10
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.35
Over 2,562%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- DAC to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Alioune Sylla to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Alioune Sylla to score34%
- Vincent Chyla to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.19PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · DAC | X | 2 · Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | EV+ 3% 4.19 | 4.17 |
Odds updated 22 Aug, 08:31
Odds movement
1+1 %
57 %52 %
1.71 → 1.72
X+4 %
26 %21 %
4.04 → 4.19
2+2 %
25 %20 %
4.07 → 4.17
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 22/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
9 matchesDAC 6Draw 2Podbrezová 1
Goals: 14–7 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- DAC dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 9 meetings.
- DAC win 60% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
DAC
Podbrezová
DAC (6–1)
Podbrezová (8–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
DAC
Podbrezová
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
DAC
Podbrezová
The teams in numbers
| Performance | DAC | Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 9 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.47 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | DAC | Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.85 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 378 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 237 | 352 |
| Switches of play per match | 41.5 | 18.3 |
| Long balls per match | 51 | 29 |
| Set pieces | DAC | Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| Other | DAC | Podbrezová |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Leandro Filipe de Almeida Dornelles (DAC) | Jakub Luka (Podbrezová) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 6 |
| Save % | 91% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins DAC vs Podbrezová according to our model?
The model gives DAC a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: DAC 57%, draw 24%, Podbrezová 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.