01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw (X2)69%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Slovak Super LeagueMOL Aréna, Dunajská Streda22°0,2 mm26 km/h
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DACPossession control2–0
Slovan BratislavaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Slovan Bratislava (36%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.66 (+13 %)
DAC – Slovan Bratislava · Slovak Super League
1 · DAC 33%X 31%36% Slovan Bratislava · 2
33%
31%
36%
Analysis: DAC – Slovan Bratislava
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
DAC's recent form is impressive, having won their last four matches, a stark contrast to Slovan Bratislava's historical dominance in this fixture, where they have won six of the last eight encounters. This clash brings tension to the fore, with both teams known for their possession-based styles. While the home side boasts a strong 61% win rate at their ground, the visitors hold a slight edge in expected goals metrics, suggesting they could exploit any defensive lapses.
Despite DAC's superior position in the current standings with 13 points to Slovan's 12, the expected points metric leans towards the visitors. Bratislava's expected goals against are notably lower, indicating a tighter defense. This may nullify DAC's attack, despite their decent xG per match. With both teams converting chances at a reasonable rate, a goal apiece seems likely, aligning with the model's top score prediction of 1-1.
The model gives the draw a 31% chance, but the market offers value at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, providing a 2% edge. Considering the historical goal average of 3.1 in this matchup, leaning towards over 2.5 goals seems prudent. However, the draw remains the sharpest betting angle here.
DACForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Samsondin OuroFxG 0.34 · xT 0.21
- Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.35
- Matej TrusaFxG 0.99 · xT -0.03
Slovan BratislavaForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #4
Key players
- Daiki MatsuokaRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.12
- Manasse KiangaRWxG 0.68 · xT 0.28
- Danylo IgnatenkoCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: DAC 33% · Draw 31% · Slovan Bratislava 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Slovan BratislavaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,23fair 6,72-7 %
MissMatchresultat - DAC Dunajská StredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,08fair 10,16-30 %
MissMatch prediction: DAC – Slovan Bratislava
Predicted score matrix
Slovan Bratislava →
DAC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–17.7%
0–26.7%
0–33.8%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.2%
1–29.2%
1–35.1%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.4%
2–17.5%
2–26.3%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.4%
3–22.8%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,36–1,68
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.21
Over 2,559%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Slovan Bratislava or draw (X2)69%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Adam Griger to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Adam Griger to score25%
- Samuel Kozlovský to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.66PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetssonEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · DAC | X | 2 · Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.72 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | 2.72 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.72 | EV+ 2% 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | EV+ 13% 3.66 | 2.41 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:31
Odds movement
1+1 %
37 %32 %
2.69 → 2.73
X+4 %
29 %24 %
3.53 → 3.66
20 %
42 %37 %
2.41 → 2.41
Over 2,5-4 %
58 %53 %
1.74 → 1.67
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesDAC 1Draw 1Slovan Bratislava 6
Goals: 8–17 (⌀ 3,1)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Slovan Bratislava dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
- DAC come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- DAC win 61% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
DAC
Slovan Bratislava
DAC (17–2)
Slovan Bratislava (15–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
DAC
Slovan Bratislava
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
DAC
Slovan Bratislava
The teams in numbers
| Performance | DAC | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPoints | 8.4 | 8.9 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.82 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | DAC | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 2 |
| xTA per match | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 22 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 386 | 550 |
| Passes against per match | 237 | 202 |
| Switches of play per match | 46.1 | 43.7 |
| Long balls per match | 52 | 53 |
| Set pieces | DAC | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| Other | DAC | Slovan Bratislava |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Leandro Filipe de Almeida Dornelles (DAC) | Aleksandar Popovic (Slovan Bratislava) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 10 |
| Save % | 85% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins DAC vs Slovan Bratislava according to our model?
The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: DAC 33%, draw 31%, Slovan Bratislava 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.