01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Komárno or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Slovak Super League24°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Dukla Banska BystricaLow block & direct2–2
KomárnoCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Komárno (45%)
Dukla Banska Bystrica – Komárno · Slovak Super League
1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica 30%X 26%45% Komárno · 2
30%
26%
45%
Analysis: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Komárno
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Komárno has dominated the head-to-head matchups against Dukla Banska Bystrica since 2023, securing victories in all four encounters. This small sample size certainly favors the visitors, but it's crucial to weigh current form and expected goals more heavily. The hosts have a slight edge in points this season, with 3 to Komárno's 2, yet the underlying metrics tell a different story.
Banska Bystrica's style relies on low defense and direct play, but their defensive frailties are evident with an alarming xGA of 2.6 per match. This vulnerability contrasts sharply with Komárno's more robust defense, reflected in their xGA of 1.4. Offensively, Dukla generates a marginally higher xG of 1.2 per match compared to the visitors' 1.0, suggesting they can create chances but often leave themselves exposed at the back.
The model gives the visitors a 45% chance of taking the win, with a 30% chance for the hosts. Most likely scorelines hint at a tight contest, such as 1-1 appearing at 13%, but the 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%) scenarios underline Komárno's potential edge. The expectation of goals is balanced, with the over 2.5 goals odds set at 49%, and both teams to score at 54%.
The value here lies with Komárno to win at odds of 2.25 with Bet365, as the model leans towards them and their head-to-head streak bolsters confidence. While neither side is expected to run away with it, the visitors' counter-attacking prowess and defensive solidity could see them edge a narrow victory, likely 1-2. Avoid over 2.5 goals unless you enjoy a gamble; the expected defensive setups and calculated approaches might just suppress a goal-fest.
Dukla Banska BystricaForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #9
Key players
- Michal DurisFxG 0.34 · xT 0.21
- Róbert PolievkaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.20
- Nikolas KubalaRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
KomárnoForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #5xP/match #11Points #11
Key players
- Ján BernátLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
- Jakub SylvestrFxG 0.38 · xT 0.16
- Dominik ZakCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dukla Banska Bystrica 30% · Draw 26% · Komárno 45%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KFC KomarnoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,76fair 9,48-29 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Dukla Banská BystricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,07fair 13,21-31 %
MissMatch prediction: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Komárno
Predicted score matrix
Komárno →
Dukla Banska Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–19.9%
0–27.3%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.7%
1–28.8%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.2%
2–17.5%
2–25.3%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.0%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,21–1,43
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.95
Over 2,549%
@1.94
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Komárno or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Andy Masaryk to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Róbert Polievka to score23%
- Dávid Richtárech to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Komárno45% probability@2.32PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica | X | 2 · Komárno |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.02 | 3.42 | EV+ 4% 2.32 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:36
Odds movement
1+7 %
34 %29 %
2.81 → 3.02
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.42 → 3.42
2-2 %
43 %38 %
2.37 → 2.32
Over 2,5+6 %
53 %48 %
1.84 → 1.94
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDukla Banska Bystrica 0Draw 0Komárno 4
Goals: 3–9 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Komárno
Dukla Banska Bystrica (4–13)
Komárno (4–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Komárno
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Komárno
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 2 |
| xPoints | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.58 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 246 | 351 |
| Passes against per match | 437 | 333 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.3 | 22.4 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 7.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.58 |
| Other | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Trefil (Dukla Banska Bystrica) | Branislav Pindroch (Komárno) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 15 |
| Save % | 57% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 72% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Komárno according to our model?
The model gives Komárno a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dukla Banska Bystrica 30%, draw 26%, Komárno 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.