01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dukla Banska Bystrica or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Slovak Super League14°13 km/h
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Dukla Banska BystricaLow block & directvs
SkalicaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Skalica @ 3.02 (+3 %)
Dukla Banska Bystrica – Skalica · Slovak Super League
1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica 38%X 28%34% Skalica · 2
38%
28%
34%
Analysis: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Skalica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Dukla Banska Bystrica have yet to notch a victory against Skalica in their four encounters since 2023, drawing once and losing three times. The sample is small, but it does showcase a trend: the hosts struggle to assert themselves against this particular opponent. Despite the head-to-head disadvantage, the model leans slightly toward Dukla, giving them a 38% chance of securing three points, while Skalica's prospects are pegged at 34%.
The expected goals tell a tale of close margins, with Dukla at 1.26 and Skalica at 1.33. Both sides employ a low-defense, direct approach, hinting at a game where neither will easily outmaneuver the other. Points and expected points slightly favor Skalica, although Dukla's better xG per match does suggest potential for a breakthrough. Most likely scorelines skew towards tight affairs: 1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 10%.
Given the numbers, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 48%, but the real value lies in betting the under. At odds of 1.98 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the under 2.5 market shows a 3% edge according to the model. It's a pragmatic play in a matchup tilted towards cautious tactics.
Dukla Banska BystricaForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #10xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Nikolas KubalaFxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
- Lubomir WillweberCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.06
- Viktor TothRWxG 0.58 · xT -0.04
SkalicaForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #12xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Adam MorongCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Erik DanielRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
- Philip Obinna OnyedikaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Skalica
Predicted score matrix
Skalica →
Dukla Banska Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–19.6%
0–26.6%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–09.1%
1–112.9%
1–28.4%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.0%
2–17.9%
2–25.3%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.3%
3–22.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.4%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,26–1,33
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.97EV+3%
Over 2,548%
@1.84
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dukla Banska Bystrica or draw (1X)62%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Róbert Polievka to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Róbert Polievka to score29%
- Jakub Považanec to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Skalica34% probability@3.02PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.552% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.574% probability@1.36BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica | X | 2 · Skalica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Betsson | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.41 | EV+ 3% 3.02 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31
Odds movement
1-3 %
43 %38 %
2.36 → 2.30
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.31 → 3.41
2+4 %
34 %29 %
2.91 → 3.02
Over 2,50 %
55 %50 %
1.85 → 1.84
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDukla Banska Bystrica 0Draw 1Skalica 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Skalica
Dukla Banska Bystrica (6–18)
Skalica (9–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Skalica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dukla Banska Bystrica
Skalica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Skalica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 8 |
| xPoints | 6.3 | 6.9 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.5 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Skalica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 0.66 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 274 | 221 |
| Passes against per match | 435 | 364 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.3 | 14.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Skalica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| Other | Dukla Banska Bystrica | Skalica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukáš Hroššo (Dukla Banska Bystrica) | Erik Riska (Skalica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 18 |
| Save % | 63% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Skalica according to our model?
The model gives Dukla Banska Bystrica a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dukla Banska Bystrica 38%, draw 28%, Skalica 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.