Slovak Super LeagueKošická futbalová aréna, Košice19°19 km/h

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    KošiceKošicePossession & high press
    3–0
    Dukla Banska BystricaDukla Banska BystricaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Košice (66%)

    Košice – Dukla Banska Bystrica · Slovak Super League

    1 · Košice 66%X 18%16% Dukla Banska Bystrica · 2

    Analysis: Košice – Dukla Banska Bystrica

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Košice have been riding high in the Slovak Super League, and the statistics show they're likely to keep rolling against Dukla Banska Bystrica. With a 66% probability of triumph according to the model, the home side is clearly the team to beat. The expected goals tell a similar story, with Košice projected to net 2.28 compared to the visitors' 1.12. This points to a match where Košice's possession and high pressing style could overwhelm Dukla's low defense and direct play.

    While Košice has claimed victory in both of their head-to-head clashes since 2023, the sample size is admittedly small, so it's the current form and statistical expectations that should dominate our thinking here. Košice not only lead in points but also in xPoints, with 6.5 to Dukla's 6.0. This consistent performance is reinforced by their xG and xGA metrics, which show a clear edge over the visitors.

    The most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest but tilt in favor of the hosts: 2-1 and 2-0 both loom large. The model's confidence in over 2.5 goals (66%) and both teams scoring (61%) suggests a spirited affair, but the robustness of Košice's attack should ensure they come out on top. Despite Dukla's potential to punch above their weight, the numbers imply that Košice's greater attacking efficiency will make the difference.

    For those looking for value, consider Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where Košice's win at odds of 1.55 offers a 3% edge over the model's probability. These odds reflect Košice's strength at home and their ability to capitalize on weaknesses in Dukla's defense. A 2-1 victory for Košice seems a sound prediction, with a lean toward over 2.5 goals as the numbers suggest.

    KošiceKošice
    Form DDWLD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #7xP/match #7Points #8
    Key players
    • Roman CerepkaiLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.06
    • Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
    • Osman KakayRWBxG 0.32 · xT 0.10
    Dukla Banska BystricaDukla Banska Bystrica
    Form LLLWD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #9xP/match #12Points #10
    Key players
    • Róbert PolievkaFxG 0.40 · xT 0.16
    • Michal DurisFxG 0.22 · xT 0.15
    • Nikolas KubalaRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Košice 66% · Draw 18% · Dukla Banska Bystrica 16%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Kosice 2018Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,47fair 4,14-16 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FK Dukla Banská BystricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,87fair 17,56-32 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Košice – Dukla Banska Bystrica

    Predicted score matrix

    Dukla Banska Bystrica →
    Košice →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.6%
    0–13.5%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–18.8%
    1–24.8%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–06.6%
    3–17.4%
    3–24.1%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–06.4%
    4+–17.2%
    4+–24.0%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.1-19%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,28–1,12
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    @2.68
    Over 2,566%
    @1.41

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Košice to win66%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Košice to win66%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Roman Čerepkai to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Roman Čerepkai to score35%
    • Jakub Považanec to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Košice66% probability@1.55PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KošiceX2 · Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Betsafe1.494.304.90
    Betsson1.494.304.90
    Nordicbet1.494.304.90
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    1.55    		4.565.09

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    62 %57 %

    1.54 → 1.55

    X+2 %
    23 %18 %

    4.47 → 4.56

    2+5 %
    22 %17 %

    4.86 → 5.09

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Košice 2Draw 0Dukla Banska Bystrica 0
    Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Košice
    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Košice (14–13)
    Dukla Banska Bystrica (6–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Košice
    Dominik Kruzliak: 172 passningar, xT 0.31KruzliakFilip Lichy: 166 passningar, xT 0.45LichySebastián Kóša: 155 passningar, xT 0.34KóšaMatej Madlenak: 127 passningar, xT 0.18MadlenakKevor Palumets: 115 passningar, xT 0.16PalumetsOsman Kakay: 113 passningar, xT 0.44KakayDavid Gallovic: 73 passningar, xT 0.02GallovicBojan Damjanović: 72 passningar, xT 0.69DamjanovićMiroslav Sovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.82SovicMilan Rehus: 57 passningar, xT -0.11RehusMatus Kira: 53 passningar, xT 0.12Kira
    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Mikuláš Bakaľa: 151 passningar, xT 0.25BakaľaLubomir Willweber: 140 passningar, xT 0.18WillweberNicolas Sikula: 135 passningar, xT 0.53SikulaAlabi Toheeb Adewale: 101 passningar, xT 0.29AdewaleDavid Richtarech: 93 passningar, xT 0.29RichtarechLukáš Hroššo: 75 passningar, xT 0.13HroššoRegő Szánthó: 66 passningar, xT 0.15SzánthóRóbert Polievka: 62 passningar, xT 0.35PolievkaJakub Povazanec: 61 passningar, xT 0.29PovazanecJakub Trefil: 50 passningar, xT 0.02TrefilAdam Baláž: 49 passningar, xT 0.07Baláž
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Košice
    Dominik Kruzliak: 172 passningar, xT 0.31KruzliakFilip Lichy: 166 passningar, xT 0.45LichySebastián Kóša: 155 passningar, xT 0.34KóšaMatej Madlenak: 127 passningar, xT 0.18MadlenakKevor Palumets: 115 passningar, xT 0.16PalumetsOsman Kakay: 113 passningar, xT 0.44KakayDavid Gallovic: 73 passningar, xT 0.02GallovicBojan Damjanović: 72 passningar, xT 0.69DamjanovićMiroslav Sovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.82SovicMilan Rehus: 57 passningar, xT -0.11RehusMatus Kira: 53 passningar, xT 0.12Kira
    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Mikuláš Bakaľa: 151 passningar, xT 0.25BakaľaLubomir Willweber: 140 passningar, xT 0.18WillweberNicolas Sikula: 135 passningar, xT 0.53SikulaAlabi Toheeb Adewale: 101 passningar, xT 0.29AdewaleDavid Richtarech: 93 passningar, xT 0.29RichtarechLukáš Hroššo: 75 passningar, xT 0.13HroššoRegő Szánthó: 66 passningar, xT 0.15SzánthóRóbert Polievka: 62 passningar, xT 0.35PolievkaJakub Povazanec: 61 passningar, xT 0.29PovazanecJakub Trefil: 50 passningar, xT 0.02TrefilAdam Baláž: 49 passningar, xT 0.07Baláž

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKošiceDukla Banska Bystrica
    Points64
    xPoints6.56
    xG per match1.61.1
    xGA per match22.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.430.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.380.51
    Playing styleKošiceDukla Banska Bystrica
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.590.35
    xT per match0.990.85
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half3221
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.17
    Entries into the box per match1612
    Entries into the box against1017
    Pass completion %0.70.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.67
    Passes per match283243
    Passes against per match367450
    Switches of play per match11.117
    Long balls per match2828
    Set piecesKošiceDukla Banska Bystrica
    xG from free kicks0.010.08
    Corners per match5.55.7
    Corners against per match7.35.7
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.080.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.35
    OtherKošiceDukla Banska Bystrica
    Throw-in control0.680.56
    The goalkeepersMatus Kira (Košice)Jakub Trefil (Dukla Banska Bystrica)
    Saves1212
    Save %67%57%
    xG prevented45%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Košice
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Košice vs Dukla Banska Bystrica according to our model?

    The model gives Košice a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Košice 66%, draw 18%, Dukla Banska Bystrica 16%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.