Košice vs Slovan Bratislava: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Slovak Super League22 August 2026 20:30 CESTKošická futbalová aréna, Košice23°11 km/h

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KošiceLow block & direct

Slovan BratislavaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Slovan Bratislava (48%)

1 · Košice 29%X 23%48% Slovan Bratislava · 2

29%

23%

48%

Analysis: Košice – Slovan Bratislava

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Three straight wins in their recent outings have put Slovan Bratislava in a confident position as they face FC Kosice in this Slovak Super League clash. Despite the lower historical head-to-head sample size, Slovan's dominance with four wins to Kosice's one since 2023 paints a clear picture. The odds from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer some value on FC Kosice at 3.5, given their 29% chance of winning. Still, this is more of a speculative edge than a solid opportunity.

Slovan Bratislava is the more polished side, favouring a possession-based style that tends to suffocate teams like FC Kosice, who rely on a low defensive block and direct play. With expected goals leaning in Slovan's favour (1.75 to 1.34), they are poised to control the tempo and keep Kosice on the back foot. This tactical edge, combined with a superior xPoints tally (4.9 vs 4.2), suggests that the visitors have the upper hand.

FC Kosice, sitting with only five points compared to Slovan's nine, face an uphill battle. Their xGA per match of 1.8 against Slovan's 0.89 highlights a defensive frailty that could be exploited. Even recent history shows that when these teams meet, goals tend to flow, with an average of three per game. However, the dampening effect of weather, if adverse, is already accounted for in the model's numbers.

A 1-2 scoreline in favour of Slovan Bratislava seems the most plausible outcome. The probability of both teams finding the net stands at 61%, which aligns with the high-scoring trend in their recent meetings. The lean towards over 2.5 goals further supports a game that could see the net bulge multiple times.

As for the sharpest betting angle, while there's a slight value on FC Kosice at 3.5, the numbers suggest a more prudent focus on goals. With a 60% chance for over 2.5 goals, that's where the smarter money might find its mark, especially if Slovan's attacking momentum carries through.

Košice

Form WLDDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #7xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Roman CerepkaiLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.06
Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
Osman KakayRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14

Slovan Bratislava

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #1xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Daiki MatsuokaRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.11
Cesar BlackmanRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.52
Alexej MarošLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.49

Match prediction: Košice – Slovan Bratislava

Predicted score matrix

Slovan Bratislava →

Košice →

0–04.9%

0–17.7%

0–27.0%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.6%

1–05.8%

1–111.0%

1–29.3%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.5%

2–04.1%

2–17.2%

2–26.3%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.4%

3–01.8%

3–13.2%

3–22.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,34–1,75

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.38

Over 2,560%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Slovan Bratislava to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Slovan Bratislava to win48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Adam Griger to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Adam Griger to score33%
Filip Lichý to be booked26%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Košice	X	2 · Slovan Bratislava
Betsafe	3.40	3.50	1.92
Betsson	3.40	3.50	1.92
Nordicbet	3.40	3.50	1.92

Odds updated 18 Aug, 12:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

29 %24 %

3.25 → 3.40

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.50

20 %

50 %45 %

1.92 → 1.92

Over 2,5+2 %

64 %59 %

1.49 → 1.52

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Košice 1Draw 1Slovan Bratislava 4

Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Slovan Bratislava dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Slovan Bratislava come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Košice

Slovan Bratislava

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Košice (11–9)

Slovan Bratislava (12–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Košice

Slovan Bratislava

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Košice

Slovan Bratislava

The teams in numbers

Performance	Košice	Slovan Bratislava
Points	5	9
xPoints	4.2	4.9
xG per match	1.8	2.3
xGA per match	1.8	0.89
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.27

Playing style	Košice	Slovan Bratislava
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.63	0.71
xT per match	1	2
xTA per match	0.97	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	37	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.38
Entries into the box per match	16	23
Entries into the box against	7	8
Pass completion %	0.67	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.85
Passes per match	269	570
Passes against per match	331	192
Switches of play per match	9.6	46.5
Long balls per match	25	54

Set pieces	Košice	Slovan Bratislava
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	6.3	4.2
Corners against per match	6.6	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.6

Other	Košice	Slovan Bratislava
Throw-in control	0.71	0.81

The goalkeepers	Maciej Kevin Dąbrowski (Košice)	Aleksandar Popovic (Slovan Bratislava)
Saves	6	5
Save %	46%	100%
xG prevented	11%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Košice vs Slovan Bratislava according to our model?

The model gives Slovan Bratislava a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Košice 29%, draw 23%, Slovan Bratislava 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.