Žilina vs Komárno: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Slovak Super League23 August 2026 19:00 CESTŠtadión pod Dubňom, Žilina19°9,0 mm10 km/h

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ŽilinaCounter-attacks & crosses

KomárnoPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Žilina (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Komárno @ 4.20 (+15 %)

1 · Žilina 48%X 25%27% Komárno · 2

48%

25%

27%

Analysis: Žilina – Komárno

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The Slovak Super League clash between MSK Zilina and Komarno is set against a backdrop of numbers that tell a compelling story. MSK Zilina holds a slight edge with a 48% chance of victory, according to the model probabilities. They have historically dominated the head-to-head record, winning three of their last four encounters, a small sample that leans in their favor but isn't decisive. The expected goals tally of 1.68 for MSK Zilina against 1.27 for Komarno suggests a match where the hosts might just have the upper hand in converting chances.

MSK Zilina, with their counter-attack and crossing tactics, could find themselves tested by Komarno's possession-oriented style. However, their significantly higher xG of 1.8 per match versus Komarno's 1.1 reveals their proficiency in creating quality scoring opportunities. Yet, MSK Zilina's defense, conceding 1.6 xGA per game compared to Komarno's 1.4, shows vulnerabilities that the visitors might exploit, especially if they can control the tempo.

With both teams averaging over 2.5 goals in 57% of their matches and a 59% chance of both teams finding the net, a goalfest isn't off the cards. The absence of any adverse weather factors means conditions will be primed for open play, enhancing the chances for goals. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 encapsulate the tension—MSK Zilina's edge is clear, but Komarno could easily disrupt that narrative.

Despite MSK Zilina's advantages in form and xG, the allure of the betting angle is undeniable. Komarno's win, priced at odds of 4.2 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, presents a 15% edge over the model's 27% win probability. For those with a penchant for risk and a sharp eye for value, this is the kind of opportunity worth a flutter.

Žilina

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #3xP/match #9Points #6

Key players

Daniel Homet RuizFxG 1.22 · xT -0.02
Michal FaskoFxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
Fabian BzdylLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.06

Komárno

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #4xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Dominik ZakCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Adam KrcikRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Ján BernátLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Žilina – Komárno

Predicted score matrix

Komárno →

Žilina →

0–05.6%

0–16.3%

0–24.2%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.5%

1–111.5%

1–27.1%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.4%

2–19.4%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.1%

3–15.3%

3–23.3%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,68–1,27

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.02

Over 2,557%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Žilina to win48%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Žilina to win48%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Daniel Homet Ruiz to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Daniel Homet Ruiz to score36%
Dominik Žák to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Komárno27% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Komárno27% probability@4.20BetssonEV+15%reference odds
2 · Komárno27% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Žilina	X	2 · Komárno
Betsafe	1.70	3.55	EV+ 15% 4.20
Betsson	1.70	3.55	EV+ 15% 4.20
Nordicbet	1.70	3.55	EV+ 15% 4.20

Odds updated 17 Aug, 12:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

55 %50 %

1.72 → 1.70

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.55

2+5 %

25 %20 %

4.00 → 4.20

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.72 → 1.72

Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Žilina 3Draw 0Komárno 1

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Žilina

Komárno

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Žilina (10–10)

Komárno (3–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Žilina

Komárno

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Žilina

Komárno

The teams in numbers

Performance	Žilina	Komárno
Points	7	2
xPoints	4.5	4.1
xG per match	1.8	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.55	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.27

Playing style	Žilina	Komárno
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.53	0.51
xT per match	1.3	1.1
xTA per match	0.99	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	21	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	399	356
Passes against per match	248	321
Switches of play per match	17.2	23.7
Long balls per match	28	37

Set pieces	Žilina	Komárno
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.15
Corners per match	6.2	6.5
Corners against per match	6	5.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.55

Other	Žilina	Komárno
Throw-in control	0.75	0.68

The goalkeepers	David Sipos (Žilina)	Branislav Pindroch (Komárno)
Saves	11	12
Save %	61%	75%
xG prevented	30%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Žilina vs Komárno according to our model?

The model gives Žilina a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Žilina 48%, draw 25%, Komárno 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.