Slovak Super League21°12 km/h

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    PodbrezováPodbrezováLow block & direct
    2–2
    KošiceKošicePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Podbrezová (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Košice @ 3.70 (+14 %)

    Podbrezová – Košice · Slovak Super League

    1 · Podbrezová 42%X 28%31% Košice · 2

    Analysis: Podbrezová – Košice

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    With Podbrezová's 42% win probability against Košice's 31%, the hosts hold a slight edge. The numbers favor a tight match, with the most likely scoreline at 1-1, closely followed by 2-1. Expected goals suggest a narrow game: Podbrezová at 1.74 versus Košice at 1.60. Podbrezová plays a low-defence, direct style, whereas Košice's possession-based, high-press approach could disrupt this.

    Podbrezová has shown stronger form with 9 points compared to Košice's 5, supported by a superior xPoints tally of 8.6 against 4.5. Their defensive metrics are notably better as well, conceding 1.6 xGA per match compared to Košice's 2.1. Despite the 7-match head-to-head being evenly split, Podbrezová's recent performances and underlying stats suggest they are the more stable side.

    The match leans towards over 2.5 goals at 65%, acknowledging both teams' tendencies to score. Yet, the real value lies with Košice; Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer enticing odds of 3.7, reflecting a 14% edge in the model's assessment. It's a calculated risk for those inclined to back the visitors despite their underdog status.

    PodbrezováPodbrezová
    Form WLWWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #4xP/match #3Points #5
    Key players
    • Karlo MiljanicRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.15
    • Peter KováčikRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.36
    • Radek SilerFxG 0.69 · xT 0.12
    KošiceKošice
    Form LDDWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #6xP/match #8Points #7
    Key players
    • Roman CerepkaiLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.06
    • Kevor PalumetsRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
    • Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Podbrezová 42% · Draw 28% · Košice 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Kosice 2018Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,41fair 7,36+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FK Zeleziarne PodbrezovaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,98fair 6,19-36 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Podbrezová – Košice

    Predicted score matrix

    Košice →
    Podbrezová →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–15.4%
    0–24.5%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–05.9%
    1–110.1%
    1–27.9%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–18.6%
    2–26.9%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–15.0%
    3–24.0%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,74–1,60
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @2.72
    Over 2,565%
    @1.40

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Podbrezová or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Podbrezová or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Karlo Miljanić to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Karlo Miljanić to score26%
    • Emilian Metu to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Košice31% probability@3.70PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
    • X · Draw28% probability@4.09PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
    • 2 · Košice31% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PodbrezováX2 · Košice
    Betsafe1.82
    EV+ 5%
    3.80
    EV+ 8%
    3.50
    Betsson1.82
    EV+ 5%
    3.80
    EV+ 8%
    3.50
    Nordicbet1.82
    EV+ 5%
    3.80
    EV+ 8%
    3.50
    Pinnacle1.85
    EV+ 13%
    4.09
    EV+ 14%
    3.70

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:24

    Odds movement

    10 %
    54 %49 %

    1.84 → 1.85

    X+2 %
    26 %21 %

    4.00 → 4.09

    2+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.58 → 3.70

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Podbrezová 2Draw 3Košice 2
    Goals: 10–10 (⌀ 2,9)

    Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Podbrezová
    Košice
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Podbrezová (8–10)
    Košice (12–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Podbrezová
    Jakub Luka: 231 passningar, xT 0.41LukaRene Rantusa Lampreht: 174 passningar, xT 0.4LamprehtFilip Mielke: 166 passningar, xT 0.29MielkeVincent Chyla: 132 passningar, xT 0.47ChylaOndrej Deml: 91 passningar, xT 0.6DemlPeter Kováčik: 86 passningar, xT 1.17KováčikRene Paraj: 82 passningar, xT 0.12ParajMartin Chrien: 71 passningar, xT 0.11ChrienLuka Silagadze: 67 passningar, xT 0.24SilagadzeSimon Fasko: 60 passningar, xT -0.01FaskoLukáš Domaniský: 57 passningar, xT 0.04Domaniský
    Košice
    Dominik Kruzliak: 136 passningar, xT 0.26KruzliakFilip Lichy: 125 passningar, xT 0.41LichySebastián Kóša: 105 passningar, xT 0.23KóšaMatej Madlenak: 100 passningar, xT 0.17MadlenakOsman Kakay: 95 passningar, xT 0.41KakayKevor Palumets: 94 passningar, xT 0.13PalumetsDavid Gallovic: 68 passningar, xT 0.01GallovicDaniel Magda: 53 passningar, xT 0.16MagdaMiroslav Sovic: 48 passningar, xT 0.64SovicMilan Rehus: 40 passningar, xT -0.07RehusBojan Damjanović: 39 passningar, xT 0.47Damjanović
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Podbrezová
    Jakub Luka: 231 passningar, xT 0.41LukaRene Rantusa Lampreht: 174 passningar, xT 0.4LamprehtFilip Mielke: 166 passningar, xT 0.29MielkeVincent Chyla: 132 passningar, xT 0.47ChylaOndrej Deml: 91 passningar, xT 0.6DemlPeter Kováčik: 86 passningar, xT 1.17KováčikRene Paraj: 82 passningar, xT 0.12ParajMartin Chrien: 71 passningar, xT 0.11ChrienLuka Silagadze: 67 passningar, xT 0.24SilagadzeSimon Fasko: 60 passningar, xT -0.01FaskoLukáš Domaniský: 57 passningar, xT 0.04Domaniský
    Košice
    Dominik Kruzliak: 136 passningar, xT 0.26KruzliakFilip Lichy: 125 passningar, xT 0.41LichySebastián Kóša: 105 passningar, xT 0.23KóšaMatej Madlenak: 100 passningar, xT 0.17MadlenakOsman Kakay: 95 passningar, xT 0.41KakayKevor Palumets: 94 passningar, xT 0.13PalumetsDavid Gallovic: 68 passningar, xT 0.01GallovicDaniel Magda: 53 passningar, xT 0.16MagdaMiroslav Sovic: 48 passningar, xT 0.64SovicMilan Rehus: 40 passningar, xT -0.07RehusBojan Damjanović: 39 passningar, xT 0.47Damjanović

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePodbrezováKošice
    Points95
    xPoints8.64.5
    xG per match2.11.6
    xGA per match1.62.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.450.41
    Playing stylePodbrezováKošice
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.540.65
    xT per match1.21
    xTA per match1.31.1
    Won balls, offensive half2533
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.27
    Entries into the box per match1618
    Entries into the box against159
    Pass completion %0.730.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.66
    Passes per match295281
    Passes against per match366361
    Switches of play per match16.59
    Long balls per match2725
    Set piecesPodbrezováKošice
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match5.95.7
    Corners against per match5.57
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.1
    First touch, offensive corners %0.690.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.61
    OtherPodbrezováKošice
    Throw-in control0.730.7
    The goalkeepersJakub Luka (Podbrezová)Sebastián Kóša (Košice)
    Saves67
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Podbrezová
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Košice
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Podbrezová vs Košice according to our model?

    The model gives Podbrezová a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Podbrezová 42%, draw 28%, Košice 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava
    3–0
    PodbrezováPodbrezová
    1 64%X 20%2 16%
    The model called the outcome
    SkalicaSkalica
    2–1
    RužomberokRužomberok
    1 37%X 32%2 31%
    The model called the outcome
    KošiceKošice
    3–3
    TrenčínTrenčín
    1 53%X 23%2 23%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.