01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Spartak Trnava to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Slovak Super LeagueŠtadión pod Čebraťom, Ružomberok16°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
RužomberokLow block & direct1–1
Spartak TrnavaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Spartak Trnava (57%)
Ružomberok – Spartak Trnava · Slovak Super League
1 · Ružomberok 18%X 26%57% Spartak Trnava · 2
18%
26%
57%
Analysis: Ružomberok – Spartak Trnava
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Five consecutive losses hang over Ružomberok like a dark cloud as they prepare to face Spartak Trnava. With a mere 18% chance of winning according to the model, the hosts are clearly up against it. In contrast, the visitors command a robust 57% probability of victory, reflecting their superior form and tactical precision.
The recent head-to-head encounters have been tight, but the small sample size of four games, where Ružomberok failed to win any, lends more weight to the current form and underlying metrics. Spartak Trnava's approach, centered on controlling possession, contrasts sharply with Ružomberok’s low defense and direct style. It's a tactical mismatch that may see Trnava dominate the proceedings.
Expected goals further underscore the disparity. Ružomberok's 0.96 pales next to Trnava's 2.09, highlighting not just the visitors' attacking threat but also the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities. With Ružomberok conceding an average of 2.0 xGA per match, while Trnava boasts a mere 0.78 xGA, the evidence strongly favors the visitors.
The model hints at a 10% likelihood for both a 0-2 and 1-2 scoreline, suggesting Ružomberok might breach Trnava’s sturdy defense but likely not enough to alter the outcome. The over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 54% further support the idea of a match with scoring opportunities.
For the value seekers, Spartak Trnava's odds of 1.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 3% edge. Given the stats and form lines, backing Trnava on the road appears to be the sharpest play. The odds reflect an attractive proposition, aligning with the model's lean towards a comfortable away win.
RužomberokForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #11xP/match #5Points #12
Key players
- Jan HladikFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03
- Daniel KostlCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
- Filip SoucekCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Spartak TrnavaForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #6xP/match #1Points #2
Key players
- Timotej KudlickaFxG 0.55 · xT -0.03
- Marin LaušićCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.24
- Dávid PolťákFxG 0.85 · xT 0.02
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Ružomberok 18% · Draw 26% · Spartak Trnava 57%
Match prediction: Ružomberok – Spartak Trnava
Predicted score matrix
Spartak Trnava →
Ružomberok →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–19.6%
0–210.3%
0–37.2%
0–4+6.1%
1
1–04.3%
1–19.8%
1–29.9%
1–36.9%
1–4+5.8%
2
2–02.2%
2–14.6%
2–24.8%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–00.7%
3–11.5%
3–21.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.0-37%
Expected goals
0,96–2,09
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.05
Over 2,559%
@1.81EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Spartak Trnava to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score32%
- Samuel Lavrinčík to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Spartak Trnava57% probability@2.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Spartak Trnava57% probability@2.00BetssonEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Spartak Trnava57% probability@2.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ružomberok | X | 2 · Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.30 | 3.30 | EV+ 13% 2.00 |
| Betsson | 3.30 | 3.30 | EV+ 13% 2.00 |
| Nordicbet | 3.30 | 3.30 | EV+ 13% 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | 3.57 | 3.66 | EV+ 13% 1.99 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36
Odds movement
1-7 %
29 %19 %
3.84 → 3.57
X-3 %
30 %20 %
3.77 → 3.66
2+9 %
56 %46 %
1.83 → 1.99
Over 2,5+7 %
59 %49 %
1.69 → 1.81
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRužomberok 0Draw 2Spartak Trnava 2
Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Ruzomberok have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ružomberok
Spartak Trnava
Ružomberok (4–15)
Spartak Trnava (13–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ružomberok
Spartak Trnava
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ružomberok
Spartak Trnava
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ružomberok | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 13 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.78 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.43 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Ružomberok | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.75 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 217 | 332 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.2 | 22 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Ružomberok | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Other | Ružomberok | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Ivan Krajčírik (Ružomberok) | Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 25 |
| Save % | 52% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ružomberok vs Spartak Trnava according to our model?
The model gives Spartak Trnava a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ružomberok 18%, draw 26%, Spartak Trnava 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.