01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Spartak Trnava to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Slovak Super LeagueŠtadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava22°9 km/h
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Spartak TrnavaPossession control1–3
ŽilinaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Spartak Trnava (54%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.92 (+3 %)
Spartak Trnava – Žilina · Slovak Super League
1 · Spartak Trnava 54%X 26%20% Žilina · 2
54%
26%
20%
Analysis: Spartak Trnava – Žilina
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Fifty-four percent. That's the model's probability for Spartak Trnava to edge past Žilina in the upcoming Slovak Super League clash. With a recent streak of four consecutive wins, the home side enters the match in formidable form. Despite having only two victories in their past eight head-to-head encounters with Žilina since 2023, Trnava's current momentum and possession-based approach should tilt the balance in their favor. The visitors, relying on counterattacks and crosses, might find it challenging to break down a team boasting an xGA of just 0.64 per match.
Expected goals paint a clear picture: Trnava at 1.79 and Žilina at 1.16. The model leans towards a narrow Trnava win, with 2-1 being one of the most probable outcomes at 10%. Despite the dominant xG and xPoints advantages in their favor, the head-to-head sample size is small, limiting its weight compared to current form metrics. A 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, alongside a 58% probability for both teams to score, suggests an open affair.
For bettors seeking value, the odds are aligned across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 1.85 for a Trnava victory. Given the model's 54% probability, this presents an even-value opportunity rather than an outright edge.
Spartak TrnavaForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #7xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Marin LaušićCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
- Dávid PolťákFxG 0.85 · xT 0.02
- Marek UjlakyCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
ŽilinaForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #3xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Michal FaskoFxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
- Fabian BzdylLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
- Daniel Homet RuizFxG 0.80 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Spartak Trnava 54% · Draw 26% · Žilina 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Spartak TrnavaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,76fair 6,20-23 %
MissMatchresultat - MŠK ŽilinaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,80fair 14,55-26 %
HitMatch prediction: Spartak Trnava – Žilina
Predicted score matrix
Žilina →
Spartak Trnava →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–15.8%
0–23.5%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–09.0%
1–111.2%
1–26.3%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.7%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.8%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.3%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,79–1,16
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.26
Over 2,557%
@1.64
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Spartak Trnava to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score26%
- Tobiáš Pališčák to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw26% probability@3.92PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Spartak Trnava | X | 2 · Žilina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | EV+ 3% 3.92 | 4.00 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 09:35
Odds movement
10 %
55 %50 %
1.81 → 1.81
X+2 %
27 %22 %
3.84 → 3.92
2+5 %
26 %21 %
3.81 → 4.00
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSpartak Trnava 2Draw 3Žilina 3
Goals: 8–11 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Spartak Trnava come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Spartak Trnava
Žilina
Spartak Trnava (12–2)
Žilina (12–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Spartak Trnava
Žilina
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Spartak Trnava
Žilina
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Spartak Trnava | Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 10 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.64 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Spartak Trnava | Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.71 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 395 |
| Passes against per match | 275 | 266 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Spartak Trnava | Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| Other | Spartak Trnava | Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava) | David Sipos (Žilina) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 11 |
| Save % | 91% | 58% |
| xG prevented | 85% | 29% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Spartak Trnava vs Žilina according to our model?
The model gives Spartak Trnava a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Spartak Trnava 54%, draw 26%, Žilina 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.