Slovak Super League21°0,7 mm17 km/h

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    Zemplín MichalovceZemplín MichalovceCounter-attacks & crosses
    3–1
    TrenčínTrenčínCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Zemplín Michalovce (54%)

    Zemplín Michalovce – Trenčín · Slovak Super League

    1 · Zemplín Michalovce 54%X 25%21% Trenčín · 2

    Analysis: Zemplín Michalovce – Trenčín

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Zemplín Michalovce find themselves in a favorable position as they host Trenčín, with the model giving the home side a 54% chance of victory. The likely shape of the game points towards a narrow win for Michalovce, where both teams might get on the scoresheet, yet the home side's defensive edge could prove decisive. Despite both teams sharing a similar counterattacking style reliant on crosses, the home side's historical dominance in this fixture adds an extra layer of confidence to their prospects.

    The most probable scorelines tell a story of a closely contested match, with both 1-1 and 1-0 predicted at 12% and 10% respectively. While Michalovce's expected goals tally of 1.67 suggests they might create slightly more opportunities, Trenčín's xG of 1.12 isn't far behind. The game's expected goals total indicates a slight lean towards the over 2.5 mark at 53%, though not emphatically so. The potential for both teams to find the net stands at 55%, suggesting goals might come from both ends.

    Zemplín Michalovce's recent form and historical edge over Trenčín — three wins to one in their last six meetings — suggest they have the upper hand. The small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Michalovce's capability in this fixture, yet Trenčín's higher xG per match of 1.4 indicates they know how to create chances. However, Michalovce's better defensive numbers, conceding 1.4 xGA compared to Trenčín's 1.9, could well make the difference.

    From a betting perspective, there's a clear value play on the home side winning at odds of 2.02 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given the model's 54% probability assessment. This offers a 10% edge, providing a potentially profitable opportunity for those inclined towards structured, data-driven betting decisions.

    Zemplín MichalovceZemplín Michalovce
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #10xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • Ben CottrellFxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Abdul ZubairuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
    • Kai BrosnanFxG 0.45 · xT 0.07
    TrenčínTrenčín
    Form DDLLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #9
    Key players
    • Pablo González JuárezRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.12
    • Eynel Domingos Rocha SoaresLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.19
    • Markus PoomCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Zemplín Michalovce 54% · Draw 25% · Trenčín 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - MFK Zemplin MichalovceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,18fair 7,13-27 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - TrenčínBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,13fair 15,71-48 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Zemplín Michalovce – Trenčín

    Predicted score matrix

    Trenčín →
    Zemplín Michalovce →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–16.6%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–111.8%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.6%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–04.8%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,67–1,12
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.22EV+5%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Zemplín Michalovce to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.51

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Zemplín Michalovce to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Rastislav Korba to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Rastislav Korba to score22%
    • Hugo Pávek to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Zemplín Michalovce54% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Zemplín Michalovce54% probability@2.02BetssonEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Zemplín Michalovce54% probability@2.02NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Zemplín MichalovceX2 · Trenčín
    Betsafe
    EV+ 10%
    2.02    		3.403.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 10%
    2.02    		3.403.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 10%
    2.02    		3.403.15
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 9%
    2.00    		3.823.40

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 06:31

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    50 %45 %

    1.99 → 2.00

    X+4 %
    28 %23 %

    3.68 → 3.82

    2+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.37 → 3.40

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Zemplín Michalovce 3Draw 2Trenčín 1
    Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Zemplin Michalovce dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Zemplín Michalovce
    Trenčín
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Zemplín Michalovce (5–7)
    Trenčín (7–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Zemplín Michalovce
    Tornike Dzotsenidze: 266 passningar, xT 0.75DzotsenidzeLukas Pauschek: 151 passningar, xT 0.29PauschekAbdul Zubairu: 147 passningar, xT 0.61ZubairuBen Cottrell: 127 passningar, xT 0.45CottrellAdam Jakubech: 116 passningar, xT 0.19JakubechPolydefkis Volanakis: 110 passningar, xT 0.32VolanakisTae Rang Park: 76 passningar, xT 0.15ParkMartin Bednar: 55 passningar, xT 0.19BednarLuka Lemishko: 50 passningar, xT 0.38LemishkoTommy James Pilling: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PillingFranck Bahi: 47 passningar, xT 0.15Bahi
    Trenčín
    Richard Krizan: 233 passningar, xT 0.22KrizanHugo Pavek: 215 passningar, xT 0.58PavekLukas Skovajsa: 181 passningar, xT 0.54SkovajsaMarkus Poom: 164 passningar, xT 0PoomTadeas Hajovsky: 131 passningar, xT 0.52HajovskyPape Mamadou Diouf: 130 passningar, xT 0.08DioufNikola Jovanovic: 117 passningar, xT 0.36JovanovicAndrija Katic: 108 passningar, xT 0.1KaticMatus Slavicek: 74 passningar, xT 0.04SlavicekPablo González Juárez: 66 passningar, xT 0.3JuárezLukas Mikulaj: 56 passningar, xT 0.07Mikulaj
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Zemplín Michalovce
    Tornike Dzotsenidze: 266 passningar, xT 0.75DzotsenidzeLukas Pauschek: 151 passningar, xT 0.29PauschekAbdul Zubairu: 147 passningar, xT 0.61ZubairuBen Cottrell: 127 passningar, xT 0.45CottrellAdam Jakubech: 116 passningar, xT 0.19JakubechPolydefkis Volanakis: 110 passningar, xT 0.32VolanakisTae Rang Park: 76 passningar, xT 0.15ParkMartin Bednar: 55 passningar, xT 0.19BednarLuka Lemishko: 50 passningar, xT 0.38LemishkoTommy James Pilling: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PillingFranck Bahi: 47 passningar, xT 0.15Bahi
    Trenčín
    Richard Krizan: 233 passningar, xT 0.22KrizanHugo Pavek: 215 passningar, xT 0.58PavekLukas Skovajsa: 181 passningar, xT 0.54SkovajsaMarkus Poom: 164 passningar, xT 0PoomTadeas Hajovsky: 131 passningar, xT 0.52HajovskyPape Mamadou Diouf: 130 passningar, xT 0.08DioufNikola Jovanovic: 117 passningar, xT 0.36JovanovicAndrija Katic: 108 passningar, xT 0.1KaticMatus Slavicek: 74 passningar, xT 0.04SlavicekPablo González Juárez: 66 passningar, xT 0.3JuárezLukas Mikulaj: 56 passningar, xT 0.07Mikulaj

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceZemplín MichalovceTrenčín
    Points75
    xPoints7.85.8
    xG per match11.4
    xGA per match1.41.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.070.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.34
    Playing styleZemplín MichalovceTrenčín
    Build-up efficiency0.30.29
    Field tilt0.460.38
    xT per match0.810.94
    xTA per match1.21.4
    Won balls, offensive half1927
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.280.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.29
    Entries into the box per match912
    Entries into the box against1717
    Pass completion %0.710.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match289333
    Passes against per match343299
    Switches of play per match1421.9
    Long balls per match2829
    Set piecesZemplín MichalovceTrenčín
    xG from free kicks0.010.09
    Corners per match4.24.8
    Corners against per match8.27.4
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.520.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.56
    OtherZemplín MichalovceTrenčín
    Throw-in control0.70.74
    The goalkeepersAdam Jakubech (Zemplín Michalovce)Andrija Katic (Trenčín)
    Saves2110
    Save %75%63%
    xG prevented64%21%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Zemplín Michalovce
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Trenčín
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Zemplín Michalovce vs Trenčín according to our model?

    The model gives Zemplín Michalovce a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemplín Michalovce 54%, draw 25%, Trenčín 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.