Osasuna vs Getafe: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

La Liga31 August 2026 19:30 CESTEl Sadar, Pamplona21°19 km/h

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OsasunaPossession control

GetafeBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Osasuna (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Getafe @ 4.11 (+6 %)

1 · Osasuna 42%X 32%26% Getafe · 2

42%

32%

26%

Analysis: Osasuna – Getafe

Erik Lindberg · 29 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Sergio Herrera stands as a potential key figure for Osasuna, with his role between the sticks set to influence the outcome heavily. The expected goals against (xGA) figure of 0.44 per match highlights a resolute defensive setup that has served them well. This defensive strength underpins their current edge in both points and expected points against Getafe. Despite the small head-to-head sample that shows a slight edge to Getafe, the broader form and underlying numbers favor the home side.

In terms of gameplay, the hosts' possession control style might limit Getafe's opportunities. The visitors' balanced and physical approach could struggle to break down this organized defense, as suggested by their meager 0.71 xG per match. It's a clash of styles, but Osasuna's controlled play is likely to dictate the pace and direction of the match.

The betting market aligns with this view, offering Osasuna a 42% chance of victory, compared to Getafe's 26%. The model leans towards a narrow win for the home team, with a 1-0 scoreline appearing most probable at 16%. A low-scoring affair seems likely, with a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% probability of both teams finding the net. Those looking for value might consider the under 2.5 goals market, given how both teams have performed lately and the forecasted tightness.

For those eyeing longer odds, a 0-0 draw at 15% isn't far-fetched, especially with Osasuna's defensive prowess and Getafe's struggle to convert chances. Yet, if you're betting with Bet365, the 1-0 win for Osasuna at odds of 6.50 offers a calculated risk, aligning well with both the model's lean and the expected pattern of play.

Osasuna

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #10xP/match #2Points #7

Key players

Ante BudimirFxG 1.40 · xT 0.00
Raul GarciaFxG 0.25 · xT -0.10
Ruben GarciaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.24

Getafe

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #15xP/match #14Points #10

Key players

Ramon TerratsCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
Enes ÜnalFxG 0.58 · xT 0.00
DjenéCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Osasuna – Getafe

Predicted score matrix

Getafe →

Osasuna →

0–015.0%

0–111.4%

0–24.8%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.3%

1–015.9%

1–113.6%

1–25.3%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.3%

2–09.1%

2–17.3%

2–23.0%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–03.4%

3–12.7%

3–21.1%

3–30.3%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-016%
2.0-015%
3.1-114%
4.0-111%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,11–0,81

Both teams to score

38%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 1,9

015%

127%

227%

317%

48%

Under 2,570%

@1.38

Over 2,530%

@3.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Osasuna or draw (1X)74%
Under 3.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Osasuna or draw (1X)74%
Under 2.5 goals70%
Ante Budimir to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score38%
Over 2.5 goals30%
Ante Budimir to score29%
Lucas Torró Marset to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Getafe26% probability@4.11PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
2 · Getafe26% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Getafe26% probability@3.95BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Osasuna	X	2 · Getafe
Betsafe	2.18	2.92	EV+ 2% 3.95
Betsson	2.18	2.92	EV+ 2% 3.95
Nordicbet	2.18	2.92	EV+ 2% 3.95
Pinnacle	2.26	2.83	EV+ 6% 4.11

Odds updated 30 Aug, 20:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 3.25 to 2.83 (−13%).

1+7 %

46 %41 %

2.11 → 2.26

X-13 %

34 %29 %

3.25 → 2.83

2+8 %

27 %22 %

3.81 → 4.11

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Osasuna 1Draw 1Getafe 2

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Osasuna

Getafe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Osasuna (2–1)

Getafe (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Osasuna

Getafe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Osasuna

Getafe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Osasuna	Getafe
Points	4	3
xPoints	4.3	2.2
xG per match	1.7	0.71
xGA per match	0.44	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.03	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.03	0.3

Playing style	Osasuna	Getafe
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.54	0.5
xT per match	0.73	0.48
xTA per match	0.56	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	21
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	6	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.81	0.7
Passes per match	388	262
Passes against per match	435	347
Switches of play per match	35.4	19.3
Long balls per match	45	33

Set pieces	Osasuna	Getafe
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.12
Corners per match	6.2	5.4
Corners against per match	4.6	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.75	0.09
First touch, defensive corners %	0.89	0.82

Other	Osasuna	Getafe
Throw-in control	0.84	0.76

The goalkeepers	Alejandro Catena (Osasuna)	David Soria (Getafe)
Saves	2	8
Save %	100%	73%
xG prevented	100%	72%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Osasuna vs Getafe according to our model?

The model gives Osasuna a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osasuna 42%, draw 32%, Getafe 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 16% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 30% and under at 70%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 38% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.